Warmwell.com - Avian Influenza Postings 2007

Latest Bird Flu News - below

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UPDATE ON AVIAN INFLUENZA IN ANIMALS (TYPE H5) from the OIE

Google News Latest (new window)

ProMed postings on Avian Influenza archive page

The Poultry Site - news page

The Bernard Matthews outbreak Feb 2007 - warmwell postings from the beginning Round-up of papers on the virology of avian influenza in relation to wild birds - Pro Med August 27 2007

Online petition to call for avian influenza inoculation to be permitted in Germany Individuals can sign online here http://www.runnerduck.net/news_g.htm (Abschricken" means "send" Deadline sept 29 07)
World Health Organization (WHO) website (new window)
daily bulletins from ProMed Mail (new window) Latest News from Europa EU Health & Consumer Protection Directorate General
Useful Avian Influenza Forum - Dr Martin Williams (new window)

Vaccinating Birds against H5N1 - new information and recent warmwell postings on the subject of vaccination of birds

Reference papers and links

(all open in new windows)

• The Role of the Intensive Poultry Production Industry in the Spread of Avian Influenza CIWF February 2007 pdf file
• Perspective Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds Volume 13, Number 8August 2007 Thomas P. Weber.
• Ellis TM et al. 'Vaccination of chickens against H5N1 avian influenza in the face of an outbreak interrupts virus transmission'Avian Pathology, 2004, 33(4):405412.
• September 2006 EUROPEAN PUBLIC ASSESSMENT REPORT (EPAR) NOBILIS INFLUENZA H5N2 Pdf ( The European Commission granted a marketing authorisation valid throughout the European Union, for Nobilis Influenza H5N2 to Intervet International BV on 01/09/2006.)
• 'Efficacy of vaccines in chickens against highly pathogenic Hong Kong H5N1 Avian Influenza.'David Swayne, J. Beck, M. Perdue & C. Beard.Avian Disease, 45 (2), April 2001, pp 355-365].(Abstract)
• Protective efficacy in chickens, geese and ducks of an H5N1-inactivated vaccine developed by reverse genetics Guobin Tian a, Suhua Zhangb, Yanbing Li a, Zhigao Buc, Peihong Liu b, Jinping Zhoub, Chengjun Li a,c, Jianzhong Shi a, Kangzhen Yua,1, Hualan Chena,c, Virology 341 (2005) 153  162 (pdf )
• Passive immunotherapy for influenza A H5N1 virus infection with equine hyperimmune globulin F(ab' )2 in mice pdf file. Respiratory Research 2006, 7:43 doi:10.1186/1465-9921-7-43 Jiahai Lu and others:
• "Fowl play: The poultry industry's central role in the bird flu crisis" Report from GRAIN
• "Transmission is promoted in domestic flocks due to the density of birds and the consequent close contact with faecal and other secretions that contain the virus."Avian Influenza: Birdlife Position Statement
  
• BirdLife International's document Surveillance of wild birds - about surveillance, testing and diagnosis
  
• Latest UK 'Generic' Contingency Plan for FMD   Avian Influenza etc
• Suggested policy for Turkey from Dr Ruth Watkins, UK virologist
• Ruth Watkins' paper for the CLA on the virus, vaccines and vaccination
• CHRONOLOGY-Bird flu developments - Source: Reuters

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Latest media news

about avian influenza can be seen here (New window opens)
Also, Reuters Bird Flu Chronology page is updated regularly See www.alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/BIRDFLU.htm for latest cases and maps.

Today's warmwell entries - may include H5N1 postings .....The Bernard Matthews outbreak. Still questions unanswered

August 16 2008 ~ "It seems to be unlikely that wild birds have carried the strain to Africa..."

The detection of a new avian influenza virus strain in Africa is raising serious concerns - and it is uncertain how this strain -genetically different from the strains that circulated in Nigeria during earlier outbreaks but similar to strains previously identified in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, has been introduced to Africa. Scott Newman, International Wildlife Coordinator of FAO's Animal Health Service is quoted by www.farminguk.com
"It seems to be unlikely that wild birds have carried the strain to Africa, since the last migration of wild birds from Europe and Central Asia to Africa occurred in September 2007 and this year's southerly migration into Africa has not really started yet, It could well be that there are other channels for virus introduction: international trade, for example, or illegal and unreported movement of poultry. This increases the risk of avian influenza spread to other countries in Western Africa."
Read in full

February 18 2008 ~ "The good news is that the initial concern that the global spread of H5N1 was dependent on and a result of migratory birds has proven to be a false alarm"

ProMed moderator " -- now that thousands of such have been sampled over the past few years -- and it is now clear that any H5N1-infected wild birds were infected essentially incidentally.
There was no global biological conspiracy of that virus in nature, though the events are not without interest within the greater epidemiology of avian influenza viruses. This is not to say that it cannot go from wild birds to domestic birds, but that is the exception, not the rule.
The bad news is that H5N1 seems to be well embedded in the commercial and domestic poultry in various parts of the world and will probably remain so for some time to come. There are a total of 79 postings on this topic. For earlier reports beyond those cited below, see the ProMED-mail archives. - Mod.MHJ"

February 16 2008 ~ Migratory birds are not the main source of bird flu says the World Wildlife Fund

Pakistan Daily Times "Wild migratory birds may suffer from Avian Influenza (commonly known as bird flu), but they are not the main source of the disease’s outbreak in Pakistan, according to a study statement issued by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Lahore chapter on Friday. ..The WWF said the mapping of bird flu outbreaks across the world had shown that they followed poultry trade routes rather than the migratory birds’ flyways. Therefore, after a comprehensive critical review of recent scientific literature, it was concluded that poultry trade, rather than bird migration, was the main mechanism of the global dispersal of the H5N1 virus. The organisation said the illegal trade of caged birds had transported the H5N1 virus the world over. It said, “Bird flu virus is transmitted farm to farm by the movement of live birds, people (especially with contaminated clothes), and contaminated vehicles, equipment, feed, and cages.."

February 16 2008 ~ H5N1 "The killing of healthy poultry is quite unethical for a veterinarian and it contravenes the principle of veterinary medical ethics,"

The ProMed posting on the news that the Orissa Veterinary Association (OVA) have refused on ethical grounds to cull healthy birds within a three mile radius of Orissa-West Bengal border to prevent bird flu in the state (see also below from Feb 4) carries a report from the Indian newspaper, the Statesman extract:
The killing of healthy poultry is quite unethical for a veterinarian and it contravenes the principle of veterinary medical ethics, the association unanimously felt. "All sorts of precautionary measures have been taken since last month and the investigations so far have found not a single bird flu case, there is no need of mass culling of birds", said the general secretary Dr Muktikanta Bhuyan..."
The ProMed moderator comments: " Killing animals along the (vulnerable) border, creating a "cordon sanitaire," is an explainable but controversial disease-prevention measure. It would have been expected from the Orissa Veterinary Association to propose alternative measure(s); such as, vaccination?!"

February 16 2008 ~ H5N1 "Defra does not address the question of how it will react to this spread, nor did it forward any information when asked."

ProMed mail on the subject of a tenth mute swan, put down because of H5N1 - this time on a lake (Radipole Lake) in a nature reserve in Weymouth city that does not have a direct connection with Abootsbury. As the moderator remarks, "The new case apparently passed unnoticed by the public so far (including ProMED-mail)"
The continuing reluctance to vaccinate seems to fly in the face of both animal welfare and good sense. (See H5N1 vaccination page)

February 1 2008 ~ H5N1 Two more wild swans found dead at Abbotsbury have tested positive

AFP "..the total number of swans found to have the disease at the Abbotsbury Swannery, in the Chesil Beach area of Dorset, to nine since the first cases were detected on January 10."

February 1 2008 ~ "The source of infection for the mute swan population remains undetermined.."

See epidemiological report.
Nevertheless, according to Farmers Weekly
".... the most likely hypothesis is that it was introduced by an infected migratory wild bird. .. the investigation did establish that the strain of the virus is similar to those isolated in continental Europe in the latter part of 2007. Based on testing and surveillance, there is currently no evidence to suggest widespread disease in the wild bird population....The current outbreak has been confined to seven birds found at the Abbotsbury Swannery, which DEFRA stresses represents a very low level of infection in the wild bird population on the site...."
Still no mention of the much needed vaccination for those who want to use it - as Richard Sanders, the senior policy researcher at Elm Farm, said last month, the latest outbreak suggests that the virus is circulating in wild birds and urged Defra to release its stocks of vaccine. The alternative - to lock up all birds - is, he says, "unacceptable, impractical and with some species such as geese, impossible"

January 26 ~ 6th mute swan positive for H5N1 - movement restrictions to remain in place.

DEFRA's news bulletin says only:
"a sixth mute swan collected on 21 January as part of wild bird surveillance in the same area in Dorset has tested positive for highly pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza. This is not unexpected, and our enhanced surveillance of wild birds in the area is continuing including active patrols to look for dead wild birds. There is currently no evidence to suggest widespread disease in the wild bird population, but poultry keepers in the area are reminded to remain vigilant and report any signs of disease immediately. There remains no evidence of disease in domestic birds. Live swans were also sampled on the premises and all results are negative. As of 3pm on 25 January, the restrictions on the movement of poultry or other captive birds in the Wild Bird Monitoring Area fell, and such movements no longer require a licence. Movement restrictions in the Wild Bird Control Area remain in place."
There will be many who would appreciate rather more information than this. What does “in the same area in Dorset” mean? Within or outside the reserve? Was the swan dead when collected? How it is that the BBC is able to give more information than Defra is a mystery See BBC where we learn the swan was on the reserve itself.

January 25 ~ What criteria are used by DEFRA to identify sites for testing for the H5N1 virus?

Peter Ainsworth asked for clarification and got this answer from Jonathan Shaw.
An emailer writes, "Good question, but it’s a pity Peter Ainsworth didn’t go further...
• Are there any independent and/or international experts providing advice on the surveillance strategy?
• Who is on the AI Expert Group?
• Questions to Defra remain unanswered and even unacknowledged. There is also a potential conflict of interest with regard to the wildlife representatives, as they are quite understandably interested in protecting wildlife. It is therefore all the more important to have a balanced expert group that includes independent epidemiologists. It seems a waste of effort to concentrate so heavily on dead wild birds. You only find the large easily spotted birds like white swans, not the small birds that will disappear within minutes ...."
More

January 19 2008 ~ A 5th swan at a sanctuary in Dorset has tested positive

news.bbc.co.uk ".....John Houston, of Abbotsbury Tourism, said: "We are expecting to have a run of positives and negatives while [the virus] works its way through the herd." Restrictions on the movement of birds, imposed last week [7-11 Jan 2008], remain in place. Earlier, Defra said there was currently no evidence to suggest the disease was widespread among wild birds in the area, but officials were closely monitoring the situation. The Abbotsbury Swannery will be given the all-clear if no birds test positive for the virus after 21 days. The 1st cases of the disease were found on 10 Jan 2008."

Jan 2008 ~ "the risk was overestimated," said Bernard Vallat, director general of the OIE

After the slaughter of literally millions and millions of birds worldwide because of fears of a human pandemic we now hear from Paris that Bernard Vallat considers the fear "just nonscientific supposition". Dr Vallat said the H5N1 virus has proved extremely stable, despite concerns that it could mutate into a form that could spread easily among humans.
See MSNBC "We have never seen such a stable strain," Vallat said.
He said concerns a few years ago that a flu pandemic from H5N1 might be imminent lacked scientific proof.
"It was just nonscientific supposition," he told reporters.

January 17 2008 ~ H5N1 "While our policy on vaccination is kept under continuous review, experts advise us that it would not assist disease control in this case."

Hilary Benn has issued a written Ministerial Statement on the Avian Influenza case in Dorset. He does not say who the experts are who advise against vaccination. The statement is now available online "...... no poultry or other captive bird movements from premises are permitted, all birds must be housed or otherwise isolated from contact with wild birds, no wild birds may be hunted, and all bird gatherings are banned. Biosecurity measures apply on premises where poultry or captive birds are kept. We are currently working with industry to determine the availability of licenses for movements from premises and for hunting of wild birds.

January 16 2008 ~ Another dead swan in Abbotsbury

A fourth swan from the Abbotsbury swannery in Dorset has tested positive H5N1 avian flu virus. See Guardian"....Wild birds are the likely source of infection, but Andre Farrar, of the RSPB, said it was "slightly odd" that the outbreak happened outside a migration period."
The Times:
"The new outbreak has renewed calls for the routine vaccination of all free-range, organic and hobby birds against the deadly flu virus.
The Elm Farm Organic Research Centre has been campaigning for such a preventive strategy for more than two years. Defra has a stock of 10 million does of vaccine but so far they have been offered only for use to save rare birds and collections in zoos..."
Richard Sanders, he senior policy researcher at Elm Farm, believes that the latest outbreak is a definite indication the virus is circulating in wild birds and, as we say below, has urged Defra to release its stocks of vaccine. The alternative - to to lock up all birds - is, he says, "unacceptable, impractical and with some species such as geese, impossible"
(A survey of samples collected from Dorset since 12 January is now available at www.defra.gov.uk and will be updated regularly. See also DEFRA bulletin pdf.

January 16 2008 ~ H5N1 " renewed calls for the routine vaccination of all free-range, organic and hobby birds..." which now have to be "kept indoors"

OIE report from January 11th sent by DEFRA:
".....According to EU and national legislations wild bird control and monitoring areas are now set up. The boundaries of these areas are set with reference to the places where the birds were found, while also taking into account the location of local bird reserves and the presence of wild bird populations along the Dorset coastline towards Portland Bill. The boundary of the control area is set at 3 km [1.86 miles] from the relevant points where the birds were found; the monitoring area at 10 km [6.2 miles].
No evidence of disease has been found in domestic birds.
Epidemiological inquiry is underway."
According to the Times ".. All birds inside the control zone - which extends 15 miles southeast of Abbotsbury and includes Weymouth, Chesil Beach and Portland Bill - must be kept indoors. ...... some 32 premises within the zone, of which 19 are free-range operations, involving a total of 24,588 birds.
In the wider monitoring area there are 34 farms, of which 17 are free- range, with a total of 111,488 chickens."

January 13 2008 ~ "Be vigilant" demands the Government - and then cuts down heavily on surveillance and testing

The Independent on Sunday reveals that not only has testing for the spread of H5N1 in Britain been heavily cut but there is disturbing evidence that even such testing as is carried out is seriously flawed.
"...Official figures show that the number of wild birds tested by the Government has fallen by 17 per cent over the last year.... figures were running far behind similar monitoring levels in other European countries..."
It is quite extraordinary that this should be happening at the very time that bird flu is feared to be endemic in Britain's wild bird population. That British test samples are not kept in a preservative solution as in other countries might cause the virus to decompose before it can ve verified. It is more than ever vital now that the Government release its stocks of H5N1 poultry vaccine and "start an orderly programme of preventive treatment" as Elm Farm request

January 12 2008 ~ H5N1 - real concern voiced about Defra's future moves on outdoor birds.

Elm Farm, one of the leading organic research bodies in the country, is urgently asking for a programme of preventive vaccination to allow organic, free range and hobby birds to remain outside. Like Elm Farm, we very much hope that DEFRA will bear in mind that if vaccination is delayed, it cannot then create the firewall needed since, with H5N1, vaccination takes six weeks to become effective. Richard Sanders writes,
"The alternative to preventive vaccination, as suggested in the past by Government advisers and Defra, is the shutting up of all poultry in housing.
Housing all poultry is completely unacceptable, impractical and with some poultry species such as geese, impossible. When the national mood, as voiced so loudly by Jamie Oliver and Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, is for quality, high welfare poultry production, then we must do everything in our power to protect and grow the sector."
Read in full There are now many voices calling on Defra to release its stocks of H5N1 poultry vaccine now and to "start an orderly programme of preventive treatment".

January 12 2008 ~ two more dead swans found in the Abbotsbury Swannery have tested negative for the H5N1 strain.

The Guardian reports that John Houston, general manager at Abbotsbury Tourism Ltd, said: "It's good news but it's too early days to be excited by it."

January 10 2008 ~ H5N1 at Abbotsbury - "likely that all free-range and organic birds will now be ordered indoors in the area."

Three mute swans were discovered dead by staff at the Dorset estate on Tuesday and tests have found the lethal strain of the virus. The Times has a report. We are also told that there is less restriction on movements when wild birds - as here - are involved and the incident will not stop bird gatherings nationally. The Guardian says, " It appears likely they caught the virus from other wild birds or ducks that came into the swannery for the winter months."
The BBC says that "a Wild Bird Control Area and Monitoring Area has been set up around the Swannery, covering Chesil Beach and Portland Bill. Culling of wild birds has been ruled out because experts fear this may disperse birds further."
Reuters reports, "In the latest incident, no disease has been found in domestic birds and a surveillance programme is being carried out in the local wild bird population."
Meahwhile Bernard Vallat, director general of theOIE says of H5N1 "We have never seen such a stable strain." He said concerns a few years ago that a flu pandemic from H5N1 might be imminent lacked scientific proof. "It was just nonscientific supposition," he told reporters. Report at www.msnbc.msn.com

January 2008 ~ Latest news from Google and Yahoo

Opens in new window and gives the day's round up of news articles having relevance to H5N1 around the world.

December 15 2007 ~ Earth monitoring: Vigilance is not enough

Walter Boyce, director of the Wildlife Health Center, and co-director of the NIH Center for Rapid Influenza Surveillance and Research, at the School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, USA in an article in Nature. Extract:
"...Global surveillance is key to tracking potential pandemic viruses such as H5N1. But we need to share samples more rapidly, increase testing in endemic areas and track more than one virus.... Another influenza pandemic seems inevitable, and without a generic vaccine, our best chance of being prepared is to identify, track and stop the spread of viruses such as highly pathogenic H5N1. Two years ago, some believed that H5N1 viruses were poised to spread around the globe on the wings of migrating wild birds. A massive effort was mounted to track their movement but, as of September 2007, very few positive birds have been found in tests of over 300,000 healthy wild birds from more than 40 countries..." Read article

December 13 2007 ~ Study "does not prove" that wildfowl brought H5N1 to Germany

"David A. Halvorson, DVM, a veterinary pathologist and avian flu expert at the University of Minnesota in St. Paul, commented that the similarity between the German and Russian isolates doesn't necessarily mean the viruses were brought to Germany by wild birds. "What is clear is that related viruses were introduced into Germany and they were observed in wild waterfowl before they were observed in domestic poultry," Halvorson told CIDRAP News. "This suggests that waterfowl may have been the source of introduction, but it doesn't prove it. This was known before the viruses were sequenced." The extract is from www.cidrap.umn.edu in Minnesota and refers to the article at www.sciencedirect.com in which scientists say they have found 3 distinct variants of H5N1 avian influenza virus in wild birds in Germany, 2 of which might have been "brought in by wild birds migrating from Russia".
ProMed's comment: "David Halvorson's comments are worth re-reading"

December 8 2007 ~ "epidemiological data from 2007 did not detect infection in local wild birds before infection in domestic flocks..."

said the Eurosurveillance weekly release, 2007 12(12) quoted on ProMed. Nevertheless we also read, " This is open to various interpretations, one being that EU wild bird surveillance, although extensive, has not been sufficient to trace infection in wild birds. .." and, perhaps ominously, "...ECDC's risk assessment is that those most at risk are people with small domestic and hobby flocks, rather than those working on large 'industrial' farms [11], although it is important that the prevention messages reach both. "
One looks in vain for the logic here. Any informed comment welcome.

December 3 2007 ~ Protection Zones could be lifted as early as 8 December and the Survelliance Zone on 19 December providing there are no further cases.

FWi reports that "Redgrave Poultry, the company at the centre of the recent H5N1 avian flu outbreak, has responded to DEFRA's first report into the outbreak by admitting to biosecurity weaknesses..." But we also read that Redgrave says, ""We will .... wherever possible operate farms large enough to justify a dedicated staff. ...our workers will not live on our farms from now on, other than when it is for operational reasons.."

December 1 ~ Poland's first outbreak

www.iht.com "Two turkeys at a poultry farm in central Poland have tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, authorities said Saturday. It is the country's first reported case of the deadly virus in domestic livestock. The outbreak occurred on a turkey farm near the city of Plock, some 100 kilometers (60 miles) northwest of Warsaw, said deputy chief state veterinarian Krzysztof Jazdzewski. Initial tests indicate the H5N1 strain of the virus, and samples have been sent to the State Veterinary Institute in Pulawy for final confirmation, Jazdzewski added.
Authorities ordered farmers to keep poultry indoors and launched inspections of farms within three kilometers (2 miles) of the outbreak....."

December 1 ~ The UN report precedes a bird flu conference hosted by the government of India in New Delhi next week

The conference is expected to draw health and agriculture officials from dozens of countries.
Among the UN report's (see below) findings:
• 144 countries said they have prepared some kind of plan to deal with bird flu.
• Veterinarians have the least capacity to deal with the H5N1 strain in Africa, East Asia and Pacific countries.
• Some means of compensating poultry owners for isolating and killing infected animals is in place in 66 per cent of the countries that have a bird flu plan.
• Countries generally still have a long way to go to improve how animals are cared for to reduce the risks of transmission and to prepare for the broader social and economic impacts of a pandemic, such as absenteeism from work.
  The UN-World Bank Report, says H5N1 still remains entrenched in Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, and in some locations in China and Bangladesh," the joint report said in a statement. "Therefore, the United Nations and World Bank advise countries to maintain full vigilance and cooperate to avoid a possible pandemic," it stated.

December 1 2007 ~ "The increase is thought to have resulted more from trade in infected live birds than by transmission through wild birds" David Nabarro

The Canadian Press "....the risk of a worldwide human-to-human pandemic remains as great today as it was when the hard-to-treat H5N1 flu strain first gained intense attention in mid-2005, said a new report by Dr. David Nabarro, the UN official co-ordinating the global fight against avian influenza, and World Bank officials. "We think it will happen sometime but we don't know when or where," Nabarro said Thursday. Three years ago, H5N1 was found in poultry and wild birds in nine countries, the UN bird flu chief said. The increase is thought to have resulted more from trade in infected live birds than by transmission through wild birds, whose migrations change with weather. The upsurge in H5N1 bird flu outbreaks around the world has led to the slaughter of millions of birds across Asia since late 2003. It remains entrenched throughout Indonesia and in parts of Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt, Nigeria and China, posing a threat not just to those countries but the world, Nabarro said...."

November 24 2007 ~Why is vaccination of birds against highly pathogenic bird flu still such a controversial issue in the UK?

It seems particularly bizarre when Pivotal work on the application of a vaccination programme aimed at, and resulting in, eradication was carried out in Italy, and was followed by other research, e.g. in Hong Kong and the United States of America, posing no problems of so-called silent spread. While it is true that until recent times vaccination for avian influenza in its notifiable form had always been discouraged, this is no longer the case.The new Council Directive 2005/94/EC4 on the control of Avian Influenza allows the implementation not only of emergency (short term) vaccination following a disease outbreak (as the old Directive 92/40/EEC did) but also of preventive (long term) vaccination plans, which must be based on a risk assessment to be carried out by the Member States. Although Directive 2005/94/EC was transposed and implemented by the Member States into national legislation on 1 July 2007 Our Chief Scientific Adviser is still entrenched within this mindset, repeating the old mantra in order to justify the UK's reluctance:
"Currently available vaccines have disadvantages in that although they are able to reduce mortality, it is possible that some vaccinated birds would still be capable of transmitting the disease if they became infected whilst not displaying symptoms. This would increase the time taken to detect and eradicate the virus."

November 24 2007 ~ Health officials have failed to reach agreement on a new system to ensure developing countries benefit more from sharing avian influenza viruses

Reuters "Health officials have failed to reach agreement on a new system to ensure developing countries benefit more from sharing avian influenza virusesused to develop vaccines, the World Health Organization said on Friday"

November 19 2007 ~2nd H5N1 outbreak. No vaccination policy in place to prevent possible disaster

The Guardian reports that "The site of the new infection - Hill Meadow Farm, in Knettishall..... was identified as having "dangerous contact" with the initial outbreak last week because workers for Redgrave Poultry, which operates all five sites on which culls have taken place, moved between the farms... "
The reluctance to vaccinate birds is looking ever more serious. Unvaccinated birds, prey to the virus, coming into contact with human workers - very few of whom have been inoculated against the human flu viruses with which the bird flu strain might mingle - could so easily lead to a mutation that affects the human population. It is astonishing that such an avoidable situation has been allowed to happen.

November 19 2007 ~ "January is far too late"

The Sunday Telegraph reveals that very few people who work with poultry have received anti-flu injections. Free range and pedigree poultry owners who have not been allowed to vaccinate their birds have been plunged yet again into uncertainty and worry - but not even their workers have been given the anti (human) flu jabs. The Sunday Telegraph says
"vaccinations for poultry workers will not be completed for another 2 months. .... Suffolk Primary Care Trust, which covers the infected farm, said it expected to have vaccinated the workers by January [2008]. But Dr Graeme Laver, an influenza virologist, said: "January is far too late."..."
This reminds us of an email in March from an exasperated breeder of pedigree geese who wrote that the ban on vaccinating his animals meant in effect that
"it is considered acceptable for us to risk contracting bird fly from our poultry, but we cannot be allowed to have normal flu at the same time because that would mean everyone else would be at risk..."
No H5N1 vaccine for birds when vaccines have been approved by both the OIE and the EFSA. Precious little human flu vaccine for poultry workers. One wonders what is the point of a conference such as that at Verona in March if nothing has happened in the UK by the time need arises and when human as well as animal health is at stake? As for the current DEFRA dogma, it seems to us that this information from Intervet carries rather more weight:
"Unfortunately, as with FMD, the anti-vaccination message seems to be the official line, but we are doing what we can to provide people with the other side of the argument...To my understanding, there are no 'silent carriers'. When our vaccine is used as recommended (2 doses 4-6 weeks) apart it prevents transmission of the disease, even with the high challenges used experimentally."

November 16 2007 ~ Worries that the intensive poutry industry wants to force regulation on free range and organic bird keepers

Several emailers have expressed concern that Valerie Elliott's Times article today concludes:
"Poultry farmers are incensed by what they perceive as lax biosecurity at the farm which allowed turkeys, geese and ducks to mingle with wild birds near an ornamental lake. Many are now demanding new rules for free-range and organic birds and for the Government to regulate rather than offer guidance about the need to keep outdoor farmed birds away from places where wild birds congregate."
Such comment from "poultry farmers" - which means those whose unfortunate birds are, in their cramped conditions, kept well away from any natural surroundings - presupposes that the H5N1 came from wild birds. This is looking less and less likely.

November 16 ~ What tends to be forgotten by consumers who would really rather not know where their cheap meat comes from are facts such as these

from Alan Beat's article in Country Smallholding (which should be read in full
"...During 2006, some 3.9 million broiler chicks were exported while 2.3 million were imported, 1.6 million turkey poults (hatched birds) were exported while 1 million were imported, and 233,000 tonnes of poultry meat were exported while 451,000 tonnes were imported. There is similar two-way traffic in other categories of live birds, hatching eggs, feedstuffs and waste products (3). Around 75% of this trade is conducted within Europe, but significant amounts of poultry meat are imported from countries such as Thailand and Brazil."
What is needed is regulation of the intensive systems and - for all who care about the birds - a vaccination policy.
DEFRA, it seems, is still trying to evade this, giving as its reason that
"Currently available vaccines have disadvantages in that although they are able to reduce mortality, it is possible that some vaccinated birds would still be capable of transmitting the disease if they became infected whilst not displaying symptoms. This would increase the time taken to detect and eradicate the virus."
This is almost unbelievable and has been used over and over again by DEFRA to give a sort of spurious justification to its refusal to get to grips with vaccination for any notifiable disease. Dr Ruth Watkins - with a great deal more tact and forbearance than many of us have left - comments on this latest DEFRA statement.

November 13 2007 ~ H5N1 confirmed

The Guardian says, An outbreak of bird flu on a Suffolk farm is the deadly H5N1 form of the virus, Defra confirmed today, while the government warned that the disease may have already spread. .... confirmed the strain at Redgrave Park farm in Suffolk. Gressingham Foods, (formerly Green Label Foods) who own Redgrave Park seems to import solely from Belgium and France so we are puzzled by the fact that Fred Landeg said that it's closely related to this summer's strain in the Czech Republic and Germany. The website says of its ducks
, "Gressingham Foods is a family business, and it shows. We are dedicated to the welfare of the poultry we rear....We maintain excellent welfare standards for the birds by maintaining low stocking rates and short travel times between farm and factory..."
As for the turkeys, 5000 on the same premises might be considered rather more than "low stocking rates" All the poultry at Redgrave Farm is to be killed.

November 13 2007 ~ Free range or factory? Gressingham Foods near Diss in Suffolk:

http://www.greenlabel.co.uk/default.asp?MIS=1
"....Today, we produce over 55,000 Gressingham Ducks each week and operate a modern factory, offices and farms employing nearly 200 people.
Gressingham Foods imports a wide variety of speciality poultry which it mainly supplies to the food service sector. Our speciality poultry and meats include guinea fowl, poussin, quail, corn fed chicken, whole smoked chicken, venison, woodpigeon, Barbary duck breast, Barbary duck leg, guinea fowl supremes, corn fed chicken supremes, smoked duck breast, squab, smoked chicken breast and venison steaks..."
As a knowledgeable correspondent from Holland remarks, "Isn't it a bit early to be blaming wild birds?"
We think it is. We have been here before. See Bernard Matthews page.

Monday 12 November 2007 ~ Bird Flu in Norfolk. More slaughter

5,000 birds - turkeys, geese and ducks - are to be slaughtered.
Preliminary tests showed the turkeys had the H5 strain of bird flu, but it is not yet known whether it is the highly pathogenic H5N1 form of the disease. See Reuters DEFRA's 3km Protection Zone and a 10km Surveillance Zone are being established around the Infected Premises. " Inside these zones bird movements will be restricted and all birds must be housed or otherwise isolated from contact with wild birds. We are also urgently considering with ornithological and other experts what wider measures may be needed. All poultry keepers on the GB Poultry Register will be notified, and the EU Commission has been informed." See DEFRA The unanswered questions of the Holton outbreak are still fresh in many memories. The RSPB, quoted in the Guardian this evening, has warned against the assumption that the disease had spread to poultry from wild birds. The outbreak is in a "free range" farm. See also the warmwell chronology of the Bernard Matthews case - still very much a mystery. UPDATE In a television interview, Fred Landeg said that it's closely related to this summer's strain in the Czech Republic and Germany. (BBC)
No wild birds have been found with avian flu in Europe since late August and the autumn migration is now largely over.

November 7 2007 ~ Avian Flu - Vietnam vaccine success

"Reported cases of bird flu have slowed down recently thanks to swift action and the dissemination of vaccinations to farmers, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Bui Ba Bong said Tuesday. According to Bong, the poultry vaccinated against bird flu should be able to avoid contracting the virus..".www.thanhniennews.com

November 6 2007 ~ Avian Flu - Prevention or Pandemic?

See Sheepdrove for details of the Conference. 26th November 2007 1.30 pm - 5 pm The George Thomas Room Central Hall Westminster
"......Dr. Greger asserts that human choices and actions, such as certain intensive farming practices, in reality pose a far greater risk by creating the conditions in which H5N1 is able to thrive and which, in addition, may allow the virus to become more easily transmissible to and between human beings.
Those present recognised the importance of Dr. Greger’s research, and the urgent need for such a thorough and timely analysis of the circumstances which may increase the risk of a flu pandemic. Furthermore, those present agreed that a strategy for reducing that risk should be developed as soon as possible..."

Oct 28 2007 ~ 650,000 would die from bird flu, says Govt.

David Harrison in the Sunday Telegraph "It is a grisly scenario: 650,000 deaths, with bodies piled up in shipping containers before being buried in mass graves all over the country. That is the nightmare envisaged by the Government in what it describes as the "very likely" event of a bird flu pandemic. The alarming prediction is contained in a confidential Home Office document drawn up to help councils and other organisations deal with a catastrophic outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus...." The document is called "Planning for a Possible Influenza Pandemic - A Framework for Planners Preparing to Manage Deaths"

October 6th ~ Bird flu virus mutates into a strain more infectious to humans

Independent "The bird flu virus H5N1 has mutated into a form that makes it more infectious to humans, increasing the risk of a human pandemic, researchers have found. The changes, which only affect the virus circulating in Europe and Africa, are worrying although they have not yet transformed it into a pandemic strain, Yoshihiro Kawaoka, of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who led the research, said.....Writing in the Public Library of Science journal, PLoS Pathogens, Dr Kawaoka and colleagues say recent samples of virus taken from birds in Europe and Africa all carry the mutation, which makes the virus more likely to grow in the nose and throat of humans.
"I don't like to scare the public, because they cannot do very much," Dr Kawaoka tolds the Reuters news agency. "But at the same time it is important to the scientific community to understand what is happening."
Humans have a lower body temperature than birds and the avian virus finds it difficult to grow in the cooler conditions of the human throat. The mutated virus is better adapted to these cooler conditions, making transmission more likely. "The viruses circulating in Europe and Africa all have this mutation," Dr Kawaoka said. "So they are the ones that are closer to human-like flu."."

September 22 2007 ~ "I believe that the Germans are proposing a permanent lock-up of birds"

An emailer writes to tell us that she has put a petition on this page Runnerduck.net and sure enough we read with great foreboding that "German bird-keepers are now threatened with an indefinite lock-up, causing welfare problems in particular for waterfowl.....Joint Protest against the German Bird Flu Policy by 29th September 2007 " - if one is competent at reading German - here is the German petition http://www.gegen-stallpflicht.de/?id=280 but it is easy to sign. Runnerduck.net adds (for English readers)
"We feel bound to the protection of animals and to the health of humans and animals alike and reject intensive holdings. We protest decisively against the current order of having to keep poultry under cover to fight poultry pest. The dangerous H5N1 virus type is not a problem in free ranging poultry but in systems with intensive mass holdings of large animal stocks. They are endangered by infectious diseases as these sickly bred birds are kept in tightly close-up conditions in dark stifling sheds under permanent stress, in conditions hostile to their breeds. In the open H5N1 can exists only briefly and is very limited to the locality. The lock-up order makes no sense as it weakens the immune system of the birds.
We demand:
• immediate and instant retraction of the lock-up order, strict controls of intensive holdings, of the international net of trade routes and measures against spreading the virus by the transporting of poultry and ~products, as well as bringing out excrement.
• Because we see the “culling” of healthy animals as a contradiction of the law for animal protection we demand an end to this method of fighting the pest.
• keeping animals free-range in a manner fitting to their type as well as the preservation and breeding of varied, robust stock is in need of support from the State.
The deadlinbe for the petition is looming so we hope readers who agree will support it.

August 30 2007 ~ Person to person spread

Human-to-human infections have been confirmed by software designed by the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.
Reuters reports, "....Ira Longini and colleagues at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle looked at two clusters -- one in which eight family members died in Sumatra in 2006, and another in Turkey in which eight people were infected and four died. Experts were almost certain the Sumatra case was human-to-human transmission, but were eager to see more proof. "We find statistical evidence of human-to-human transmission in Sumatra, but not in Turkey," they wrote in a report published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases. "This does not mean that no low-level human-to-human spread occurred in this outbreak, only that we lack statistical evidence of such spread."

August 28-30 2007 ~ EU vets, representing the bloc's 27 member states, will now meet to assess developments in Bavaria and reassess the poultry protection measures in place. This is expected for next week.

iol.co.za "There is one (meeting) foreseen in early September but the date has not yet been fixed," a Commission official said. "It would be a question of revisiting the Commission decision and if necessary adapting the zones... or making any adaptations that may be necessary if the situation evolves." At present, strict movement controls are in place for poultry inside the high-risk area. Poultry must be kept indoors and gatherings of poultry and other birds are banned..."

August 27 2007 ~ The most recent outbreak of H5N1 in Germany happened at a huge, intensive duck-fattening unit

A report on ProMed from the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute explains: "A total of about 165 000 fattening ducks were kept strictly indoors in several units. In a private laboratory RNA of AIV (avian influenza virus) H5N1 was detected in samples from one unit holding 44 000 ducklings of about 4 weeks of age which were supplied to the farm at one day of age by the end of July [2007].
Clinically overt disease and mortality rates increased and the diagnosis was confirmed by the regional laboratory at Erlangen (Bavaria) on Fri 24 Aug 2007. Samples were transferred to the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute on the Isle of Riems immediately and confirmed as containing HPAIV H5N1 Asia on Sat 25 Aug 2007. All ducks on the farm were culled by local authorities between Saturday and Sunday [25-26 Aug 2007]...
... the outbreak appears to be an isolated case.
The farm itself is situated in a so-called HPAIV risk area. Such risk areas have been defined by the federal states of Germany in regions with a potentially high risk of transfer of HPAIV H5N1 from wild aquatic birds and relate, in general, to the vicinity of rivers, ponds, lakes etc. In such areas all poultry has to be kept indoors.
HPAIV H5N1 had been detected 6 weeks ago, in a number of wild birds (mute swans, grebes) in several locations in Southeastern Germany, including the city of Nuremberg, which is situated approx. 50 km (31 mi) southeast of the location of the farm. ...."

August 2007 ~ "These findings make it unlikely that wild birds can spread the virus along established long-distance migration pathways..."

Perspective Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Migratory Birds Volume 13, Number 8August 2007 Thomas P. Weber. Abstract
"The claim that migratory birds are responsible for the long-distance spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of subtype H5N1 rests on the assumption that infected wild birds can remain asymptomatic and migrate long distances unhampered. We critically assess this claim from the perspective of ecologic immunology, a research field that analyzes immune function in an ecologic, physiologic, and evolutionary context. Long-distance migration is one of the most demanding activities in the animal world. We show that several studies demonstrate that such prolonged, intense exercise leads to immunosuppression and that migratory performance is negatively affected by infections. These findings make it unlikely that wild birds can spread the virus along established long-distance migration pathways. However, infected, symptomatic wild birds may act as vectors over shorter distances, as appears to have occurred in Europe in early 2006."

August 26 2007 ~ 1st outbreak in a commercial poultry in Germany in 2007

"Authorities have closed off a poultry farm in southern Germany after an outbreak of bird flu. Local veterinary authorities said late on Friday [24 Aug 2007] checks at the farm in the Erlangen-Hoechstadt area in Bavaria had discovered birds infected with the H5N1 virus...." Alertnet.org

Update Monday - About 160.000 ducks were being culled in Germany during the weekend after 400 ducks were found dead infected by H5N1 bird flu virus in a farm near the southern city of Erlangen.

April 23 2007 ~ Hungarian agriculture ministry say that EU experts said "it was impossible that the Hungarian outbreak was in any way related to the British."

On Thursday the Hungarian Agriculture Ministry denied a Hungarian link with the Suffolk H5N1 outbreak.

March 22 2007 ~ WHO officials will propose new ideas about producing H5N1 avian influenza vaccines to Asian health ministers next week in Jakarta in the hope of resolving an impasse with Indonesia over sharing of virus samples

The WHO said it would press pharmaceutical companies to expand vaccine manufacturing in developing nations to lower the cost of the vaccines to those countries, Bloomberg News reported today. www.cidrap.umn.edu
Bangkok Post "Thailand has backed Indonesia in refusing to share samples of the H5N1 avian influenza virus with the World Health Organisation (WHO), unless it can be sure of getting a share of any vaccines made. ''We don't want to take advantage of anyone. Fair distribution is all we want,'' said Public Health Minister Mongkol na Songkhla. Thailand will make its case at a WHO-organised meeting on vaccine agreements in Jakarta next week."

February 23 2007 ~ "Stakeholders are currently talking to DEFRA about vaccination delivery. A third meeting should eventually be held..."

Dr Chris Ashton, who represents the British Waterfowl Association on the DEFRA poultry stakeholders group, has asked warmwell to publish a document about vaccination against avian influenza and on the efficacy of vaccines. Elm Farm Research Centre produced a paper on this subject which they launched at a Parliamentary Reception in July while Dr Ashton herself gave a short presentation at a DEFRA meeting in June about the desirability of having a policy in place before the disease actually arrived.
Dr Ashton says,
"....Defra is reminded that some stakeholders do wish vaccination to be used in the event of AI outbreaks in the UK....Stakeholders are currently talking to DEFRA about vaccination delivery. A third meeting should eventually be held, and some information is also on the DEFRA web page
Vaccine delivery refers to the logistics of how to get the vaccine and monitor its use but does not mean that it will be allowed before the UK is ten weeks into an outbreak.." (Intervet has useful information on monitoring etc -Word doc new page)
"....Defra has said that the vaccine will not be used at an initial outbreak (such a Holton). They will try to control outbreaks by culling. They would wait for up to10 weeks into outbreaks before starting to vaccinate. The 10 week figure in the magic number of weeks that free range farmers would be expected to keep their birds indoors/under nets. They would be allowed to vaccinate at 10 weeks and release the birds at 12 weeks to keep their free-range status. So, let's hope there are no more outbreaks in E Anglia." Read in full
What needs to be made a lot clearer is the circumstances in which DEFRA would allow the vaccine to be used. For keepers of small numbers of birds, 'backyard birds', the question is urgent - although luckily these naturally reared birds are the ones least likely to get ill. Most of the cases - certainly in Laos and Holland - have been in industrial poultry, and it does seem to be becoming an inescapable conclusion that it is the global poultry industry and the unnatural rearing conditions which are the problem. As owners say, "Quite why our pets and pure breeds have to take the risk, we really don't know."

February 21/22 2007 ~ "There is little question that adequate vaccination will reduce shedding levels and thus the virus load.."

Dr Bernard Vallat, Dr Joseph Domenech and Dr Stefano Marangon have written the Introduction: to the Verona Conference taking place next month (20-22 March) Its title is Vaccination: a tool for the control of avian influenza. This is a scientific conference on vaccination, co-organised by the OIE, FAO and the Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, and supported by the European Commission to review the current methods and recent experiences in the use of vaccination against avian influenza.
".....a control strategy that is based only on the application of sanitary measures to increase biosecurity and the culling of animals that are infected or suspected of being infected, has proven not to be sufficient to avoid the spread of infection. The OIE and FAO consider that it is timely to convene the best renowned experts to address the issue of global guidelines for vaccination...There is little question that adequate vaccination will reduce shedding levels and thus the virus load ....."

February 21/22 2007 ~ Vaccination of birds. Russia moves immediately. UK still dithers

Warmwell has recently posted several emails from leading virologists on the subject of vaccination. They are highly qualified, have no vested interests. Although the issue is complicated, the bottom line is simple.
• Vaccines protect a population against a ' wildtype' infection when sufficient number are vaccinated - a figure usually in excess of 80%.
• Vaccinees will take a given time (with current H5N1 vaccines the time is, according to Intervet, 1-2 weeks after the first injection in a course of two shots of killed vaccine) to raise a T-cell and antibody response whereupon the vaccinee will be protected. An annual booster may be required.
• The vaccine must be a close enough match in its surface proteins to the wildtype to evoke a protective response, create neutralising antibodies.
Unfortunately, what has been described as "the obsessional focus by DEFRA" is that a few individuals who have partially responded but then, before protection is complete, meet ' wildtype' virus early after vaccine may have mild clinical disease and may possibly excrete some virus in to the surroundings. This does not matter because
• the vaccinated flock puts a stop to the chain of infection. The whole exercise is to reduce spread and these hypothetical few cases, with much reduced virus shedding, would not, even if they existed, allow the virus to gain a foothold.
The earlier vaccination happens the safer for the flocks and the environment because they will have responded fully to the vaccine before their encounter with wildtype virus.
Without vaccination, one is left with the UK solution of racing after the virus, killing en masse, imposing draconian restrictions on healthy stock and trying to stop virus contamination in any local environment with disinfectant.

February 21 2007 ~ It is imperative that the highly pathogenic H5N1 is stopped from circulating round the world. It is dangerous to expose humans and wild birds to infected domestic poultry.

Although what we have seen in Suffolk seems the most economic option for the government when one poultry farm is infected, the real cost is borne by the farmers. They have been forced to take free range birds indoors, make temporary netted enclosures, buy disinfectant, and have had their production interrupted by restrictions. Their livelihood is also jeopardised by the inevitable public lack of confidence. Eventually the cost of this disease spread worldwide by trade in chicks, poultry dead or alive and its products, feathers and faeces will be borne by the world - and far more dearly than the gain of any trade in poultry. Supermarkets must accept some responsibility here and promote vaccinated poultry products without allowing a negative aura to be created or marking them down.

February 20 2007 ~ New Meat Byproducts: Avian Flu and Global Climate Change

The Worldwatch Institute's report Vital Signs 20072008 says that sixty percent of global livestock production takes place in intensive "confined animal feedlot operations" (CAFOs) in the developing world. At least 15 nations have restricted or banned free-range and backyard production of birds in an attempt to deal with avian flu on the ground, a move that may ultimately do more harm than good, according to Danielle Nierenberg, a Worldwatch research associate:
"Locating large chicken farms near cities might make economic sense, but the close concentration of the birds to densely populated areas can help foster and spread disease. In Laos, 42 of the 45 outbreaks of avian flu in the spring of 2004 occurred on factory farms, and 38 were in the capital, Vientiane. In Nigeria, the first cases of avian flu were found in an industrial broiler operation ...then quickly to neighbouring backyard flocks.....
...where animals are concentrated by the thousands, diseases erupt and spread quickly. Trade in poultry from these operations is a culprit in spreading the disease to smallholder farmers. Experts suggest that rather than culling smaller, backyard flocks, the FAO, WHO, and other international agencies should focus the bulk of their avian flu prevention efforts on large poultry producers and on stopping disease outbreaks before they occur.
"While H5N1...may have been a product of the world's factory farms, it's small producers who have the most to lose." says Nierenberg. ( See these two articles on the upcoming report.)

February 20 2007 ~ Russia to vaccinate all birds near Moscow

Science Daily "Russian officials are set to prevent a possible outbreak of the avian flu by vaccinating at least 1 million domestic birds in an around Moscow. While all Russian poultry is typically inoculated twice a year, Russian veterinary experts informed the press agency RIA Novosti that all birds near Moscow will soon be given free vaccinations to prevent an outbreak of the virus. The move comes as five cases of the avian flu were reported near Moscow, including one Monday in which the presence of the H5N1 virus was confirmed...."

February 19/20 2007 ~ "Where has the idea that there is long term circulation of H5N1 in a fully vaccinated flock in the absence of disease in the flock come from?"

Another email from the virologist Dr Ruth Watkins, commenting on paragraph 21 from the EU Directive, should be read in full by those who do not necessarily accept the received wisdom of the government on the subject of vaccination. ".....Where has the idea that there is long term circulation of H5N1 in a fully vaccinated flock in the absence of disease in the flock come from? What is the documentary evidence for it? I would have thought that if the virus were to continue to circulate in a fully vaccinated flock there would be the evidence of diseased birds as the immune cross reactivity of the vaccine virus would be so poor as to have failed to evoke the protective antibody, neutralising antibody to H5. .." Read in full

February 19 2007 ~ David Miliband now says that poultry in the protection zone have been "sampled"

Channel 4 ".....Tests had also been completed on poultry samples from 21 premises in the protection zone and in all cases there was no evidence of infection. ...MPs have been told that the earliest time at which bird flu restriction zones in Suffolk could be lifted was the second week of March - provided there were no further outbreaks or suspect cases in the area. ..."

February 19/20 2007 ~ MEP: "PREMATURE RE-OPENING OF SUFFOK FARM BREACHES EU LAW"

We have heard this afternoon from the office of the South-East England's Green MEP Caroline Lucas. Dr Lucas has demanded that the European Commission investigate the re-opening of the Bernard Matthews plant.
".....If the government doesn't follow EU rules it is British farmers who will pay the price, as this failure means the disease is more likely to strike again - and the EU will be able to blame the UK Government and deny any compensation claims. I have today demanded the European Commission investigate the Government's decision to allow the plant to re-open so soon."
See Dr Lucas'Letter to Commissioner Kyprianou (pdf)

February 19 2007 ~ "It was a complete mess with dead birds still lying around the site - and tatty, torn, blown out buildings and made Bobby Waugh's look like the Hilton."

An emailer tells us that on Friday (16 Feb) ITV 6.30 and 10.30 news programmes both ran an extensive report "..showing the dire state of the farm in Hungary that had had bird flu in geese - it raises all sorts of questions about what the level of bio-security is in Hungary - and if birds slaughtered at the same abbatoir is the same one that dealt with this farm then it is very easy to see how the disease could be transferred. I just wonder if Defra saw the footage and is now acting upon it."
Bird flu seems quietly to be dropping out of the news. Intensive factory methods and the extraordinary to-ing and fro-ing across borders of chicks, slaughtered birds and carcasses continue. But Farming Today This Week (new window) was entirely given over to the subject of the bird flu crisis and raised some very important points about such issues as bio-security in the big plants, global movements, labelling issues and the likelihood of change. Interesting to notice the number of times Mr Fred Landeg emphasised the "humane" nature of the killing of the turkeys at Bernard Matthews, and the fact that Mr Alick Simmons said he was "perfectly happy" about the present situation.) There was even a hint that the political condoning of the always expanding multi-national poultry industry may well be at the very root of the crisis.

February 19 2007 ~ enshrined, as if in amber, is the back-covering rider that vaccinated poultry may become infected

While anxiety increases among the small free-range poultry owners, talk of "silent spread" continues to be allowed to fuel the justification for the UK's policy of non-vaccination. The EU Directive clearly says,
"Vaccination against avian influenza can be an effective tool to supplement disease control measures and to avoid massive killing and destruction of poultry or other captive birds. Current knowledge suggests that vaccination may be useful not only as a short-term measure in emergencies but also as a long-term measure to prevent disease in situations of higher risk of introduction of avian influenza viruses from wild life or other sources. Provisions should therefore be established for both emergency and preventive vaccination."
But then, enshrined as if in amber, is the back-covering rider that vaccinated poultry "may become infected and thus contribute to the further spread of the infection" No wonder many of the talking heads are repeating it. The virologists, however, who understand how vaccination works, say that it is nonsense not to vaccinate.
".... there is now good scientific evidence on the efficacy of H5 vaccines available to the EU. Once poultry have had a full vaccination course it is known when they have the full protection offered by the vaccine. I believe this is about 3 weeks after the first injection. There should be information from Vietnam about vaccine efficacy in the field as well. It is inexcusable if this has not been obtained, for instance by the WHO."
The UK shuts up free range birds and, even in an emergency, drags its feet on vaccination - but, as we see below, the Directive's rules on surveillance are not being followed by those who are so ready to quote it.

February 19 2007 ~ Of course no vaccination for any disease, animal or human, can ever be 100% but if enough individuals are vaccinated a virus infection can be eliminated.

(See below ) The Hong Kong paper cited on our H5N1 page clearly indicates that with that strain of the H5N1 virus and the vaccine used in 1997, infection could not be maintained because insufficient virus was being shed.
The infection chain was broken.
Italy has used vaccination to ring highly pathogenic H5 or H7 virus in years past with apparent success. What seems to be happening in the UK is that officials, who assume that it they say 100% success cannot be claimed for vaccination, will be justified in the public mind in warning against a near zero risk. The media seem most reluctant to point out that choosing instead to ignore the available vaccines which responsible poultry keepers are so anxious to be able to useis far more dangerous for the country .
And not only journalists. It seems that most public service scientists have a clause in their contract banning membership of outside groups that might have the courage to question current dogma. Must it always be a voice in the wilderness that cries foul?

February 19 2007 ~ UK fails to adopt minimum EU measures on avian influenza

The EU Directive says that the minimum control measures to be applied include Surveillance programmes to:
(a) detect the prevalence of infections with avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H7 in different species of poultry;
(b) contribute, on the basis of a regularly updated risk assessment, to the knowledge on the threats posed by wild birds in relation to any influenza virus of avian origin in birds.
As we now know, no surveillance of live birds in the Protection Zone has been undertaken at all to 'detect the prevalence of infections with avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H7 in different species of poultry'. Yet the Bernard Matthews plant has been allowed to continue as if nothing had happened. Free range poultry, however, has been forced indoors. The UK, so ready to use EU regulations to justify its sometimes coercive behaviour would appear to be reneging on its responsibility to the population. As for the Chief Veterinary Officer, Debby Reynolds, no sight or sound from her seems to have been in the media since February 3rd. Where is she? The "vets" we do hear from, such as Mr Landeg and Mr Simmons, were heavily involved in overseeing the mass killing of animals in 2001, refuting the usefulness of available speedy diagnosis and vaccination. It is hardly surprising if farmers and smallholders are inclined to feel little confidence in their ability to protect the country or the countryside.

February 18 2007 ~ Tests confirm H5N1 bird flu strain in Russia

Shanghai Daily - Shanghai,China TESTS have confirmed the presence of the H5N1 bird flu strain in poultry found dead in two suburban Moscow districts, an agriculture official said

February 18 2007 ~ Bird flu continues to spread

Bangkok Post - Klong Toey,Bangkok,Thailand The prospects of a complete elimination of the H5N1 virus appear bleak as birds continue to harbour the virus and act as carriers.

February 18 2007 ~ DEFRA "admitted late last week that they have not tested a live wild bird in Britain since the outbreak began three weeks ago."

Geoffrey Lean in the Independent on Sunday "... This appears to contradict repeated assurances from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) that "wild bird surveillance" in the area has been "enhanced"....."
And although the Department claimed that "extensive surveillance from the infected premises and the surrounding area has not isolated any trace of H5N1 in wild birds" - which implies continuing careful surveillance, Geoffrey Lean's article shows that no live bird sampling has been done in Suffolk at all - the nearest live bird sampling has been at Welney in Norfolk, 50 miles away. Peter Ainsworth called it "staggering complacency" It is feasible that gulls have picked up the virus from the "trimmings" and plastic bags 'containing meat products and residual liquid' that the reports themselves said were a threat. And now even landfill sites may be infected. We read in the Sunday Telegraph that "Animal health specialists are alarmed at the possibility that contaminated meat might have found its way on to landfill sites, which are a haven for scavenging birds."
So while the free range birds are forced into unnatural conditions around the Bernard Matthews factory farm, the officials who demand such cooperation are failing to check whether it is even remotely necessary.

February 17 2007 ~ Discrepancies

While the newspapers rush to report what Fred Landeg, Alick Simmonds and spokesmen from the Bernard Matthews plant itself are saying after the publication of the two full reports, the discrepancies leap off the pages - as does the familiar, safe-place-on-the-fence, conclusion "We may never find the exact cause of the disease outbreak "
First, on how the virus got to the UK. We read that, according to Fred Landeg, importation of poultry products from Hungary was "the most plausible route of transmission" but also that "no imports of turkey meat had come from the restricted area in Hungary" How can it be both?
Next, on breaches of regulations. What continues to be referred to as "the farm" was apparently given repeated verbal warnings about "waste trimmings" including polyethylene bags containing meat products and residual liquid, left in the open. It seems, however, both that
" in each case the problem was addressed and no further enforcement action was taken"
and that
"MHS records of enforcement activity, from January 2006 to date, recorded a number of instances where verbal advice to Bernard Matthews about deficiencies and non-compliance was given". Again, how can it be both?
As for the so-called "farm" itself, it is anxious to deny any loss of sales although the Telegraph reports that " Bernard Matthews has disclosed that sales of the company's products have slumped by 40 per cent since the outbreak was discovered almost three weeks ago." Both cannot be true. The plant even claims that the official reports supported the way it ran the Suffolk plant. (Meatinfo.co.uk) and that it both will and did comply with regulations "Today's report indicates that the authorities have identified ways in which biosecurity can be enhanced and Bernard Matthews will comply with any recommendations," the firm said in a statement, and "The detailed nature of the epidemiological report also confirms that Bernard Matthews followed all of Defra's biosecurity regulations at that time."

February 16/17 2007 ~ I can't see any reason for there being all this world trade in live and raw dead animals and their products.

Dr Ruth Watkins writes, " . .. The international trade: legal, illegal, legal but poorly monitored, legal but cheating on the paperwork etc is just brilliant for spreading agents which are highly infectious round the world (if not attendant mosquitoes, midges, fleas and ticks etc.). It can happen innocently and unintentionally. Only a tiny amount, even one infectious particle or virion, can be sufficient to infect a susceptible host such as a fowl with HPAI H5N1....we cannot allow H5N1 and PMWS to spread unchecked. Politics and farming interests interfere with virology sleuthing. I do commend Ian Brown ( chief avian virologist at VLA) for sticking to his guns over the recent H5N1. .... .." Read in full

February 16 2007 ~ Experts are to reveal the interim findings of a Government investigation into the source of the bird flu outbreak.

The Guardian today tells us that "Experts" are to reveal the interim findings of a Government investigation into the source of the bird flu outbreak. They are referring to Deputy chief veterinary officer Fred Landeg and Food Standards Agency's veterinary director Alick Simmons. The full reports are now on line.

February 15/16 2007 ~ "DEFRA statements on the role of vaccination in the control of virulent livestock viruses could make better informed people weep"

Dr James Irvine in this Landcare.org article
".... We were assured yet again by David Miliband, ... in an interview with Andrew Marr on TV BBC1 Sunday AM 12th February, that he had followed scientific advice from DEFRA and the Food Standards Agency (FSA), and that "he had every confidence in the high standard of that advice, and that this was also the opinion of the Chief Scientist, Professor Sir David King", who had vouched for the high standards of the scientists involved...."
"One really has to wonder who is giving the politicians so-called "excellent scientific advice".......What should have been learned is some basic immunology regarding vaccination as a front line of defence against the spread of viral diseases in livestock - or indeed in humans. ......"
Warmwell also recommends the clarity of Dr Colin Fink on the same subject: "... I am sure that vaccine would break the transmission cycle even in high density flocks. Vaccine for all the smallholders' birds would be very effective in preserving them clinically well and in lower density flocks transfer of wild type virus would be minimal or none."

February 15 2007 ~ Tests on nearly 75 000 wild ducks, gulls and other birds have turned up no sign of dangerous H5N1 avian influenza in the United States

Independent online SA"The programme was unprecedented in scope in terms of the range of species of birds sampled, which included waterfowl, shorebirds, gulls and terns, among others," Hon Ip of the US Geological Survey said in an email posted to an infectious-disease message group..."

February 15 2007 ~ "this outbreak on one of my farms was immediately contained and did not spread further"

The Daily Mirror carries an article by Mr Matthews. He says, " I am eternally grateful to my hardworking and loyal staff, to the many vets and experts, to Defra and the other industry bodies that this outbreak on one of my farms was immediately contained and did not spread further."
One wonders how he can be so sure.
We have heard nothing about surveillance of the poultry in outlying districts, only some testing on wild birds. No use of the diagnostic on-site testing - the very first thing that should have been done to ensure that there was no further spread - has been mentioned. Indeed, in none of the news articles of the past days has there been any discussion of what Article 4 of the EU Directive calls Surveillance programmes.
Member States shall carry out surveillance programmes in order to: "detect the prevalence of infections with avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H7 in different species of poultry"
If adequate surveillance is being done, where is it being done? What epidemiological risk assessment has been carried out as per the Directive and where may one read about it? These are urgent questions. Can it be that the UK will not use available technology until its own "lab on a chip" is up and running?

February 15 2007 ~ China joins Ireland, Russia, Hong Kong, South Africa, South Korea and Japan in banning UK poultry

See FT. The UK export market for poultry is worth £300m, according to the British Poultry Council. Today, Reuters reports that Bernard Matthews is saying was sorry for the scare but insisted it was not his company's fault.

February 14 2007 ~ The Netherlands is allowing its free range birds out again from Feb. 19.

. (See Alertnet) The Dutch, at least, seem to have been listening to the many concerned voices of free range poultry owners in the Netherlands - who also have the option of vaccinating. The UK has, even now, avoided putting together any workable scheme for those who urgently want to protect their birds. Increasing evidence (See e.g. International Herald Tribune Feb 12) as well as common sense indicates that H5N1 is a disease of intensively farmed poultry, spread by the intensive poultry industry. Yet in the name of public health, UK officialdom imposed on healthy hens the very conditions under which the virus can flourish and spread like wildfire - confined, stressed flocks in close proximity. Professor Sir David King in particular, is already looking at a future where "organic and free-range farming would come to an end. ...."
Little wonder that free range owners are more and more sceptical of UK disease policy being applied fairly and as a result of balanced scientific knowledge - and less and less inclined to register their birds. Woe betide the owner of any hen found pecking around in the open air near Holton, but live turkeys are again being bussed in to the Bernard Matthews site for a very nasty end to their short lives.

February 14 2007 ~ Bernard Matthews"keeping the products back because they may contain meat from a restricted zone in Hungary."

Guardian In spite of resumed "production" of live turkeys into meat products, the Food Standards Agency tells the media today that Bernard Matthews has agreed to keep certain products back for 48 hours because they may contain meat, sent in frozen form, from a restricted zone in Hungary.

February 14 2007 ~ Two entirely separated and biosecure parts to the Holton site?.

The slaughter-line at Bernard Matthews has been described as an "adjoining and completely separate factory, which employs a total of about 1,000 staff " - but it was this building that was used for the slaughter of all 159,000 turkeys - both healthy and infected - by Monday, February 5 (see EDP24 Feb 13) while several of the, supposedly wholly separate, sheds were infected. Is anyone able to explain why it was considered safe to continue production at the site - or was this purely the following of EU rules in order to reduce financial losses?
It continues to astonish that production has continued at the site and we read on EDP24 (Feb 14) that "there were one or two raised eyebrows in Strasbourg yesterday that the factory in Holton had been allowed to open so quickly."

February 14 2007 ~ " He kept deferring to something called "the science", as a medieval monarch might defer to holy mother church. . There is no such thing..... "

Simon Jenkins in the Guardian "....The motto of the expert in a risk-averse society is: "I see a risk; give me a contract."......The word risk is now so abused as to render it near useless in political discourse. I forget how many radios I have hurled across the room listening to John Humphrys or Eddie Mair demanding: "Minister, why can't you be 100% sure there is no risk?" I heard two officials debating last week the difference between an unlikely, very unlikely, small, minuscule and infinitesimal risk from H5N1. Each term was then qualified if the turkey was "properly cooked". Properly? Here were scientists who dared not use such simple concepts as "one chance in a billion" or "let's change the subject", because they might not be asked back on the programme....
...As one virologist, Ruth Watkins, said on the radio this week: ask enough questions and you will soon find "there are too many questions still unanswered". Quite so.
..... Miliband seems to have behaved exemplarily in his role as protector of the turkey industry. He made only one mistake. He kept deferring to something called "the science", as a medieval monarch might defer to holy mother church. There is no such thing. ... "

February 14 2007 ~ 99.96% similarity of the RNA sequences of the genomes of the H5N1 avian influenza viruses

ProMed comment "The 99.96% similarity of the RNA sequences of the genomes of the H5N1 avian influenza viruses isolated from turkeys in the UK and from geese in Hungary, and the absence of an obvious precursor, justifies the conclusion that these viruses are isolates of the same strain of H5N1 avian influenza virus.
Questions which remain unresolved, and which may not be resolved by sequence analysis alone, are firstly the origin of this unique turkey/goose strain of virus and secondly the direction of travel of the infection -- from Hungary to England as presently supposed or from England to Hungary. - Mod.CP"

February 14 2007 ~ H5N1 vaccination: "I am sure that vaccine would break the transmission cycle even in high density flocks"

Dr Colin Fink writes on vaccination.
"...High density of birds increases the transmission rate of the infection between individuals. If they were all vaccinated , any virus infection introduced would have low flock spread with little if any subsequent shedding into the environment.. The birds would remain clinically well. However no symptoms in the birds together with no understanding by the handlers of even small risk of infection spread outside a flock could lead to some transfer of organisms out of the flock if the biosecurity was not strictly observed. No biological system is ever absolute especially when run by staff who do not understand transfer of infection .
I am not sure what is better for these hapless creatures and their factory bosses in high density rearing. Such a devastating outbreak with much virus shedding as we saw followed by immediate culling or no virus shedding but a minimal risk of ' wild type' viral carriage for short while only?
I am sure that vaccine would break the transmission cycle even in high density flocks. ."

February 13/14 2007 ~ Selective reporting from interviews with virologists "No one is asking the right questions and they all know that they are not"

The reopening of slaughter and packing at the Holton factory farm took most people by surprise. We note with concern that news reports quote "scientists" but they are not named and we get little input from named practising virologists. Both Dr Colin Fink and Dr Ruth Watkins have been interviewed by the BBC in the last 48 hours. Both discovered that what they considered to be important information had been cut.
In essence, Dr Fink said that the virus undoubtedly was from the Hungarian outbreak and brought in. As for how, he offers this possible explanation - which was not included in the broadcast:
I believe that the carcase material brought in was infected with H5N1. One way of transfer of this infection so rapidly to the flocks would be If  the residue of the carcase meat has been ground up and fed to the new chicks as a high protein feed. That is one way the infection could be transferred into the turkey chick stock. I expect that if they wish to do this they will boil it now."
.... "There are some serious political goings on here. No one is asking the right questions and they all know that they are not. "
As for the myths about vaccination "spreading the virus" so angrily refuted here by Colin Fink, the received - and wrong - wisdom is now appearing even in such otherwise sound papers as Western Morning News (new window). Journalists must talk - and listen - to the experts in virology. This is too serious a matter for pseudo-scientific error to be treated as fact .

February 13/14 2007 ~ "The Meat Hygiene Service cleared the slaughterhouse at Holton in Suffolk. It resumes work today, having been disinfected and relicensed under European Union rules." Telegraph

"One government official called the decision "incredible". But Defra said: "The company is within its rights to begin processing again as long as the birds come from outside the zone."
However, the EU rules from the latest Directive suggest that DEFRA, in using EU legisation to justify the UK government action, may be confusing production with transport. The language of a Directive should be clear for all to understand. It is far from clear.:
Latest EU Directive on Avian Influenza Article 22 - Prohibition on the movement and transport of birds, eggs, poultry meat and carcases
1. The competent authority shall ensure that within protection zones, the movement and transport from holdings on to roads, excluding private service roads of holdings, or by rail, of poultry, other captive birds, ready-to-lay poultry, day-old chicks, eggs and carcases are prohibited.
2. The competent authority shall ensure that the transport of poultry meat from slaughterhouses, cutting plants and cold stores is prohibited unless it has been produced:
   (a) from poultry which has originated from outside the protection zones and has been stored and transported separately from the meat of poultry from within the protection zones;
   (b) on a date at least 21 days before the estimated date of earliest infection on a holding in the protection zone and which since production has been stored and transported separately from such meat produced after that date.
These EU regulations do not, surely, allow further slaughter and processing in the very plant where disease was so recently found?
(The Telegraph article also says that "leaked minutes from a meeting of Cobra" revealed that it was "by accident" that a wrapper proved that the Suffolk plant had been receiving meat from a slaughterhouse 20 miles from the outbreak in domestic geese in southern Hungary. The Daily Mail in fact reported this link on February 10th )

February 13/14 2007 ~ Whatever the Hungarian government says... the virus outbreak in Hungary and UK are linked.

Dr Watkins writes, "Today's news on the Hungarian virus and its very near identity to the Holton virus is, I am sure, made by the laboratory at Weybridge based on sequencing information on many viruses and its analysis. This type of forensic matching has been done over the last 20 years in human virology and becomes ever more sophisticated as there are more viruses sequenced and longer segments if not the whole genome sequenced, and this is combined with greater mathematical power of the analysis programmes. There may even be a unique signature change in the sequence, a duplication or deletion that points the finger even more strongly than nucleotide sequence matching alone. It has to be accepted whatever the Hungarian government says about all the paper work being above board that the virus outbreak in Hungary and that in the UK are linked.
If there were no Matthews turkey farms in Hungary and no importing of any products from Hungary to Holton it would indeed be a mystery but nevertheless linked all the same. However, raw turkey carcasses were imported from Hungary and at least some had been slaughtered at that plant near the outbreak on the two geese farms. ..." read in full

February 13/14 2007 ~ The problem of spread of H5N1 virus worldwide by industrial farming and international trade has not been addressed and has not gone away.

Dr Watkins' comments about international trade spreading the virus were broadcast on the BBC - but, interestingly, comments that the Holton turkey rearing houses at Holton should not have been reopened were cut..
Dr Watkins says that vital evidence may not have been collected if cleansing and disinfection was not correctly done. In her opinion, it was unwise to re-open the Holton premises. Issues of breakdown in safe food handling and biosecurity have not been addressed. What is urgently needed is
• a review of protocols and procedures
• structural alterations to prevent contamination between processing to bird rearing facilities are needed and
• retraining of workers seems vital. (Some seemed unaware that the risk of infection to humans was by breathing in and thought a protective coat was adequate)
  She casts doubt on the completeness of the clean-up,. Natural decay of the virus requires at least 30 days. " This was a very serious outbreak" she says.

February 12 2007 ~ "government must examine, restructure and support the infrastructure of the meat and livestock industry, so that once again it can be the main supplier of meat for the nation"

Caroline Cranbrook writes, in this email to warmwell:
"It is encouraging that the journalists are showing so much more initiative and commonsense than they did during FMD - but depressing that the government and its agencies are lagging behind..."
She includes a copy of an article she wrote for Country Life during FMD which seems even more relevant today, Importing New Risks to Man and Beast
".....government must invest in preventing illegal meat imports. At the same time, meat imports should cease from all countries currently infected ....FMD is a warning to us all. ..... Unless we impose tighter controls on imported meat, our own and our animals' health remains at risk from the risk of imported lethal infection. We must also Buy British - and Buy Local. Supermarkets must shorten their supply chains. To make this possible, government must examine, restructure and support the infrastructure of the meat and livestock industry, so that once again it can be the main supplier of meat for the nation. " Read in full
The email links to an interesting webpage showing ways in which illegal imports of bird flu-suspect poultry have been discovered. Rumania, (a neighbour of Hungary and quite close to the area where infected geese were found in January), confirmed the presence of the bird flu virus in 18 locations and detected 25 suspect cases of in eight counties last year. In May 2006, the manager of a major industrial poultry farm in Romania was arrested on charges of allowing the farm to sell chickens possibly infected with "a potentially lethal form of bird flu". As one ProMed moderator said in a recent ProMed post, ".....the temptation to import cheap replacement stock from a source which just happens to also have HPAI can be great. If such an importing country is a neighbor, many of us are at immediate risk."

February 12 2007 ~H5N1 Hungary's Agriculture Ministry denies any link

Reuters "There is indeed a turkey processing plant in Kecskemet which sent some meat to Sarvar which sent it on to various parts of western Europe," said Andras Dekany, spokesman at Hungary's Agriculture Ministry.
"This is true. But every item was checked and there were no problems reported in any other export destinations." Hungary will submit a report to the European Commission on Tuesday to prove there can be no link between the cases in Britain and Hungary.....Dekany said the virus being identical was not a convincing argument because the virus has been almost the same wherever it appeared around Europe. "The largest margin of difference has been 0.6 percent." ..."
However, the Daily Mail suggested that the slaughter house concerned did indeed slaughter both geese and turkeys. See below.

February 12 2007 ~ "The authorities have known about the situation for years, but have done nothing. There is evidence of not only negligence and utter incompetence, but cover-up, and the problem has grown unchecked."

John Vidal in the Guardian quotes Douglas Gowan, a pollution consultant who produced the first official report into the Brofiscin quarry in 1972 after nine cows on a local farm died of poisoning. The article that the UK government, which knew of the dangers of PCBs in the environment in the 1960s, allowed their production in Wales until 1977. Polychlorinated biphenyls used mainly as flame retardants and insulaters were manufactured at Monsanto's plant in Newport, south Wales, under the trade name Aroclor, and were accumulating in human milk, rivers, fish and seafood, wildlife and plants.
Meanwhile, today - as Robert Persey reveals in thisemail - increasing amounts of catering waste and Category 3 meat waste (feathers, offals etc.) are now being composted and spread on land. Mr Persey is concerned that some of the systems being authorised may not be capable always of meeting the criteria for safe use of such materials which is to treat them for 1 hour at 70^oC. "I regard the risk as being even more serious now that Avian flu is amongst us." Read email.

February 11/12 2007 ~ It is vital that advice in controlling outbreaks is given by professionally qualified clinical virologists (in human medicine and ideally veterinary medicine as well of course) in conjunction with scientists.

An email from Dr Ruth Watkins, received today, strikes us as urgent and important
"....David Milliband and officialdom in general are looking for advice from scientists for their briefing when they should be looking for advice from clinical virologists experienced in outbreak management. With respect to John Oxford he is a scientist but he is not a clinician nor is he a scientist with clinical responsibilities at The Royal London and Barts. The key to a disinterested and balanced briefing for ministers is that the advice should come from someone with clinical experience in outbreaks as well as virus expertise, and this may involve a professional group rather than COBRA. ........
As you know when I was asked to comment for BBC News 24 on the first Saturday of the Matthew's outbreak on the 3rd Feb, I said that the main cause in spread of avian flu had been via humans, trading poultry and its products legally or illegally and in using poultry manure to feed warm fish farms etc. ...... It is vital that advice in controlling outbreaks is given by professionally qualified clinical virologists (in human medicine and ideally veterinary medicine as well of course) in conjunction with scientists. This is an animal virus with important human health considerations. ...." Read in full
(A BBC page of questions on 'avian flu and Hungary' with answers by Professor John Oxford has been added today.)

February 11 2007 ~ "absurdly unscientific misinformation about why we cannot use vaccination..."

Booker's Notebook "... again we have expert virologists, such as Colin Fink of Warwick University" (see Dr Fink's email to warmwell) "staring open-mouthed as they point out how Defra could hardly be getting everything more wrong, above all in the absurdly unscientific misinformation it spreads about why we cannot use vaccination." Read in full

February 11 2007 ~ an international reappraisal of the role of factory farming and the poultry trade in the worldwide spread of the disease.

The Scotsman and the Independent are among the newspapers reporting that yesterday DEFRA admitted that it had known, since long before the crisis, that the Bernard Matthews plant regularly imported turkey meat from Hungary. David Nabarro, the UN co-ordinator for avian and human flu, has said the poultry trade is behind the spread of the virus "this year". Bernard Matthews has now confirmed that the factory did use the slaughterhouse at Kecskemet (see below)
The Sunday Telegraph says, "the British Government is to investigate claims that one farm just 30km (19 miles) from the epicentre of the Hungarian outbreak may have supplied Saga......demands for clear explanations from Bernard Matthews and the Government, grow more pressing by the hour. ....issues around who knew what, and when, and when they decided to make their knowledge public, appear disturbingly complicated "

February 10 2007 ~ Turkeys from the Matthews farm were transported to within only 30 km from the infected geese cases in Hungary - the Gall Food abattoir in Kecskemet - which slaughters geese...

See Daily Mail's own investigation "... Officials are trying to establish whether the abattoir also handled geese from the Szentes farms and thus infected turkey meat which was then exported to the UK. Signs outside the abattoir have pictures of both turkeys and geese, suggesting the plant is used to slaughter both species. ...290 tons of turkey breast has been exported from Kecskemet to Britain. In addition, a further 1,000 tons of turkey product has been sent to SaGa, Matthews's subsidiary in Sarvar. Slaughtered birds are understood to be transported back to Sarvar before the meat is brought to Britain in the form of turkey breasts. ...." An estimated "two or three lorries a week" travelled to the UK direct from Kecskemet. ProMed commented on Feb 8th
".... questions arise: Has Defra implemented appropriate surveillance, especially given that the government vets were unable to identify this disease on clinical inspection? Was the "contaminated food" distributed to any other sites? What route did the lorry (or lorries?) take, and have other locations and countries been alerted? Is withholding this information (or failing to alert a suspicion on an un-named premises) because Defra considered it "commercially confidential" consistent with their duty of care to livestock, livestock keepers and the general public?"

February 10 2007 ~ "Large poultry companies ... have been responsible for past outbreaks "

" investigations, including those carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, show quite clearly that it is the large poultry companies that have been responsible for past outbreaks..." Times
"Wild birds" can no longer be the most likely cause of the outbreak as politicians and the "experts" were saying with such confidence earlier. A Canadian study that tested more than 12,000 live and dead wild birds for avian influenza viruses turned up no cases of H5N1 viruses in 2006, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced yesterday. (See CTV.canada) and not one of DEFRA's 5000 tests have found H5N1 on any bird here either.

February 10 2007 ~ Vaccination: a tool for the control of avian influenza - conference 20th -22nd March 2007 - Verona, Italy

For further information and registration please see - http://www.avianfluvaccine2007.org/ Co-organised and supported by the EC with The OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations) IZSVe (Istituto Zooprofillatico Sperimentale delle Venezie, OIE reference laboratory for Avian influenza)
(Many thanks to Jane Barribal at farmtalking.com for spotting this.)

February 9 2007 ~ "FSA confirmed today that it was investigating the possibility that turkey meat contaminated by bird flu at a Bernard Matthews poultry farm has entered the human food chain."

Guardian and 24Dash and BBC
(Warmwell's latest postings on Bird Flu can be seen in full on the Avian Influenza page )

February 9 2007 ~ "the authorities must work harder to present a balanced picture, and not allow automatic implication of wild birds as the likeliest vector every time an outbreak occurs."

statement from BirdLife International today "....In both the UK and Hungary, the media, 'expert' commentators and some officials, including Government ministers, have been quick to implicate wild birds. In the UK there were suggestions that a small wild bird could have entered the Suffolk farm through an air vent, or that faeces from infected gulls could have been tracked into the building.
If the UK outbreak is confirmed as being caused by transportation of poultry products, this will confirm just how easily this can happen. The spread of H5N1, and outbreaks of other high-pathogenicity forms in the past, have made it clear both how much movement there is of poultry and poultry products around the world, and how easily the virus can be carried in this way...."

February 9 2007 ~ "a claim without the least shred of evidence..... scientific investigation had yet to begin. But Bradnock's suggestions ran far and wide in the national media."

Jonathan Leake's excellent New Statesman article "...Peter Bradnock, chief executive of the British Poultry Council..... "The most likely source is a wild bird," he declared firmly. "Faeces on the concrete outside could have been walked in by a worker or it could have been deposited on the roof."
It was a claim without the least shred of evidence. Confirmation of the H5N1 strain had come less than two hours earlier and the scientific investigation had yet to begin. But Bradnock's suggestions ran far and wide in the national media. A hint that the real answer might be more complex comes from a survey by Defra, whose inspectors have spent five years swabbing the rectums of 5,000 wild birds to see if any were carrying H5N1 to Britain. None were..." Well worth reading in full.

February 9 2007 ~ Poultry source now thought very likely

"38 tons of turkey meat from Hungary, where there was an outbreak of the most dangerous form of bird flu last month, has been delivered by lorry every week to a processing plant close to the company's sheds in Suffolk." Telegraph
Virus is preserved in protein rich material and although Bernard Matthews' commercial director, Bart Dalla Mura, is reported (Channel 4) as saying "vets agree it is just not a source of questioning at all" (which vets? what questioning?), that there was "not a remote possibility" that the outbreaks could be linked because "our farm is about 160 miles away from the outbreak" and "there is not a remote possibility it would have happened in that way " - these protests are now sounding like the wishful thinking of a company seeing its compensation payments looking shaky and some very awkward questions being asked. Peter Ainsworth spoke yesterday of "the version of events they have told so far".
As the Grain report below suggests, it is looking likely that H5N1 is a poultry virus killing wild birds, not the other way around.
One wonders if it can possibly be legal to recycle dead turkeys from one factory farm for use in another. The public may become more aware of how their cheap meat is being produced and the dangers inherent for humans if they allow mass production of sentient creatures. The future of battery cages looks secure, unfortunately, at least until 2012 unless there is more public outrage voiced. Asked about the banning of such cages Mr Bradshaw would only commit himself on Monday on "conventional" cages being banned from 1 January 2012.

February 9 2007 ~ We are told that vaccination for a current strain does indeed work.

" our vaccine each winter tries to predict what will be current" New vaccines are on the way which will act cross strain as well - as for the excretion story after vaccination, based on research that is considered questionable, this " does not stack up virologically".

February 9 2007 ~"...There are also questions to be answered about what ministers knew and when, and if they had information last Monday, why didn't they disclose that information?" Peter Ainsworth

Times "Today's recriminations follow the news that another three of the 22 turkey sheds at the Holton farm had tested positive for H5N1, raising fears that the virus was more entrenched than originally hoped. Government scientists are now trying to establish how the virus spread from hut to hut, or whether all four huts suffered separate, independent infections from the same source."

February 9 2007 ~ "FSA confirmed today that it was investigating the possibility that turkey meat contaminated by bird flu at a Bernard Matthews poultry farm has entered the human food chain."

Guardian ".. the agency would be considering ordering supermarkets to remove packaged turkey from shelves after it emerged that Bernard Matthews had been transporting turkey meat from Hungary..."

February 8/9 2007 ~ "government officials ... no longer believe that Britain's first outbreak of bird flu was spread by wild birds"

Guardian Observer " UK poultry contamination blamed on carcasses from Matthews' Hungarian factory....'The company involved have voluntarily agreed to temporarily suspend the movement of poultry products between their outlets in the UK and Hungary until the investigation is complete"
The rumour that this is an internal infection only has been circulating for several days (see below). We hear now that traces of infection have been found in three more sheds. Wild birds do not flit from biosecure shed to biosecure shed. The implication is that the virus arrived at the factory farm - perhaps by lorry from Hungary - and was spread internally. Neil Ferguson of Roy Anderson's Imperial Epidemiological group was quoted by the Telegraph on Wednesday "There are only two ways it could have got into the Norfolk farm: people or wild birds. Both are equally feasible. This is going to require detailed investigation and we may never find out what the origin was." But the wild bird scenario is no longer looking 'feasible'. He also said recently that there would "inevitably be more outbreaks during the year" but if this was an isolated incident of contamination then the inevitability of more outbreaks can hardly be assumed - unless other factory farms are going to behave in similar ways. The Guardian Observer story says that the government "has known about the contaminated meat since Monday" - yet British health officials told the European Union last Tuesday they did not believe there was a link between the outbreak of bird flu at the Bernard Matthews farm and two recent cases in Hungary where Matthews also has poultry interests. Neither did David Miliband mention the carcasses when he made a statement to the House of Commons on Tuesday.
As for cost-sharing, such a case adds weight to the idea that government should be willing to give up its authority on disease control to an independent board - or are real farmers going to be expected to pay for the consequences of such contamination?

February 7 2007 ~ The myth of the silent spread of virus by vaccinated birds ... is just that. - utter nonsense.

Dr Fink's email ".... The obsessional focus by DEFRA is on the period after vaccination and theoretically before a complete response has been made by the vaccinees. In fact any individual ( man or beast or bird) who has partially responded and then meets ' wildtype' virus early after vaccine may have mild clinical disease and may excrete some virus in to the surroundings. That does not matter because the whole exercise is to reduce the spread of 'wildtype' and this will be a partial result in these few cases with much reduced virus shedding. As one hopes to induce so called ' herd immunity' any flock or herd which has been vaccinated ( but perhaps a bit late !! back to indecision in DEFRA) will still achieve lower excretion levels into the environment and also will have only mild clinical disease - which most us thought was the object of the exercise. The myth of the silent spread of virus by vaccinated birds flying over DEFRA offices is just that. - utter nonsense. " The email is well worth reading in full.

February 7 2007 ~ " there is a danger that reliance on avian flu vaccination for birds could spread the disease further and thus be dangerous" Mary, As I am sure that you know, this is complete and utter rubbish

Dr Colin Fink writes that he is angry. Having read in the answer given by the Baroness Farrington of Ribbleton to the Countess of Mar, (below) the comment that vaccination "could spread the disease further and thus be dangerous", he writes
" Mary, As I am sure that you know, this is complete and utter rubbish and shows that all the 'Virologists' invented by Fred Landeg in Page Street, in answer to a question from the Countess of Mar are a myth. DEFRA cannot be allowed to go on peddling this mis-information with such arrogance and insularity. They cannot even advise their representatives properly and know nothing of how vaccines work.
You may publish this comment if you wish - I am angry about this."
Read Dr Fink's email in full. It is important that an expert practising virologist's understanding about vaccination is seen.

February 5/6 2007 ~ " Is she saying that Defra has no qualified virologists at the heart of the organisation?"

Hansard On February 1st, the Countess of Mar asked "How many qualified virologists are directly employed by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs?" but from the Baroness Farrington of Ribbleton received the answer:"..returns from agency chief executives show that Defra employs 116 qualified virologists who work in the field of virology.
The Countess of Mar: My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Baroness for that reply. Is she saying that Defra has no qualified virologists at the heart of the organisation? How many of those virologists are from the veterinary, medical and scientific disciplines? In view of the importance of viral diseases to animals and humans, will Her Majesty's Government consider setting up a separate steering committee to bring together virologists and microbiologists from all the disciplines in order to give the Government proper advice and reduce their reliance on computer modellers?" Read in full
We should very much welcome comments on the extraordinary answer given of 116 virologists. If there were merely one knowledgeable and practising virologist listened to by the Department and the government there would be little further need for this website.

February 5/6 2007 ~ 10 million doses of vaccine?

See below. In fact, only 5 million are in the UK. The other 5 million are held in Spain.

February 5 2007 ~ Illegally imported chicks from Hungary?

Rumours are now rife that Bernard Matthews has been importing live chicks or eggs from Hungary. If this is so and turns out to be the source of the trouble then the outbreak will be an isolated incident from which the UK government can perhaps at last learn some lessons. Rules about illegal imports have been in place for a considerable time now - but as we have reported elsewhere ( in particular with regard to diseased meat) making rules to protect animal and human health legally enforceable, when breaking the rules can be so lucrative, is another matter. As one warmwell reader says, "Selfish greed puts farming at risk in this country and endangers the life of the farmers and the citizens."
If the rumours are true it not surprising that no one from Holton wanted to talk to Farming Today and that we have heard so little from those running the "farm".

February 5 2007 ~ Not much communication to concerned residents living near the factory

They have complained that there still had not been anyone in touch "to tell them what to do." According to the East Anglian