The scale of the carnage

The scale of the carnage - in one four  week period last year at least 2,072, 632 animals slaughtered. Mr Morley describe these as "the number of animals slaughtered as the result of foot and mouth".  Not clear what is included here - does he mean all IPs, CPs,  3 km, other DCs, SOS?  Obviously does not include WD Scheme.
 
The total by 24 June was already 3.4 million, of which over 2.7 million were sheep.   How does that tie in with a current DEFRA website slaughter total of all types of livestock of approx. 4 million? 
 
 
Taken from Hansard Written Answers for 5 July,  Mr Morley's Holding Answer to Mr Andrew Turner.
 
Mr. Andrew Turner: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs how many animals were slaughtered in each week as a result of foot and mouth disease. [1652]

Mr. Morley [holding answer 3 July 2001]: The table lists the number of animals slaughtered each week as a result of foot and mouth disease since the commencement of the outbreak.

Week ending Cattle Sheep Pigs Goats/etc. Total
25 February 2001 799 370 1,741 0 2,910
4 March 2001 6,262 38,156 189 9 44,616
11 March 2001 16,578 60,621 1,304 12 78,515
18 March 2001 32,979 104,596 11,086 43 148,704
25 March 2001 46,852 197,468 28,405 236 272,961
1 April 2001 78,307 364,484 20,864 145 463,800
8 April 2001 85,751 489,509 20,744 777 596,781
15 April 2001 88,435 473,844 25,389 243 587,911
22 April 2001 59,742 357,839 6,418 141 424,140
29 April 2001 24,075 198,866 7,529 89 230,559
6 May 2001 17,582 90,619 419 389 109,009
13 May 2001 10,445 47,652 2,313 15 60,425
20 May 2001 8,651 54,440 78 3 63,172
27 May 2001 15,693 80,256 276 12 96,237
3 June 2001 13,046 50,813 98 7 63,964
10 June 2001 12,533 47,371 56 43 60,003
17 June 2001 10,972 56,072 957 55 68,056
24 June 2001 7,833 42,023 0 1 49,857
Total 536,535 2,754,999 127,866 2,220 3,421,620

Source:

DEFRA Disease Control System Database—latest figures subject to revision, as more data become available

(What we need is an equivalent PQ with current figures)

 
 
By the end of June, in England alone, a minimum of 208,000 healthy animals had been unnecessarily slaughtered on CPs associated with wrongly diagnosed "IPs".  And that only relates to the tested IPs, so the actual figure would have been higher.
 
 
Hansard Parliamentary Answers, 5th July (Morley to David Maclean). 
 
From the table copied below it can be seen that:
 
122 CPs in Devon slaughtered out next to uninfected incorrectly diagnosed IPs, with over 53,000 healthy animals slaughtered. 
 
123 CPs in Gloucestershire, with nearly 27,000 healthy animals
 
114 in Hereford and Worcs with nearly 36,000 healthy animals
 
40 in Northumberland with nearly 37,000 healthy animals
 
In England alone, 598 CPs with approx. 208,000 healthy animals
 
NB
Figures presented on 5 July, but would not be completely up to date i.e.actual total on 5 July would have been higher.  See the "data cleansing" going on with DEFRA at the moment.
 
Figures do not include the healthy animals on the wrongly diagnosed "IPs" themselves.
 
Figures do not include any associated 3 km culls, other DCs and related SOS
 
Not all IPs were tested, so the numbers of additional healthy "IPs" and associated healthy CPs (and all the livestock) in the untested group will never be known. However, it would be quite possible for the stats experts to come up with some sort of an estimate based on the figures to date, or at least a range of possible values.
 
In view of the statement at the end of the table of figures, it is important to remember how evidence from Dr Paul Kitching and Dr Donaldson refutes the claim that "negative tests aren't necessarily negative".
 
 
David Maclean: To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs how many (a) cattle and (b) sheep, on how many farms, in each county of England have been slaughtered because they were contiguous to infected premises but where the infected premises later tested negative. [796]

5 Jul 2001 : Column: 280W

Mr. Morley: The following table shows the numbers of cattle and sheep slaughtered on premises which are contiguous to infected premises in counties in England and where the infected premises have had negative sample results.

County Cattle Sheep Premises with cattle and/or sheep
Avon 1,291 829 12
Cheshire 386 370 6
Cleveland 202 206 1
Cornwall 35 0 1
Cumbria 3,405 19,738 52
Derbyshire 46 151 3
Devonshire 9,551 44,176 122
Durham 2,278 7,364 26
Gloucestershire 5,512 21,401 123
Hereford and Worcester 4,415 31,338 114
Kent 59 701 3
Lancashire 811 3,210 27
Leicestershire 38 345 2
North Yorkshire 1,962 3,621 25
Northumberland 3,336 33,545 40
Shropshire 939 3,059 18
Staffordshire 976 2,253 20
Wiltshire 0 823 3
England 35,242 173,130 598

A negative test-result does not necessarily mean that disease was not present and does not change the status of an infected premises.

warmwell note: Well - so says Mr Morley. However, one might be thought better advised to listen to what Dr Kitching and Dr Donaldson say about this:

    Mr Opik (MP) -' We were informed that laboratory tests were not necessarily reliable. We were told that if a vet diagnosed the disease slaughter went ahead,even if the result was negative in the laboratory, that negative result was not necessarily reliable' After clarifying the importance of sampling technique etc in answer to the question could he say with greater than 90% confidence that the negative test was reliable

    - Prof Donaldson replied ' Absolutely'.

    ( Alex Donaldson evidence to EFRA select committee 25/04/01 - - 420-421)