see also Google's updating news page for oil prices
In addition, every day, from Energy Bulletin, see
the Daily Energy Headlines First report from the House of Commons
All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil
2009 ~ Latest news this month see below for more and see also Google's updating news page for oil prices
In addition, every day, from Energy Bulletin, see
the Daily Energy Headlines
"Oil is so important that the peak will have vast implications across the realms of geopolitics, lifestyle, agriculture and economic stability... there is nothing in the pipeline to replace these losses as our usage increases five times faster than discovery..." MP Chloe Fox said: "I urge people to please go on the internet, go to Google, type in the words 'peak oil theory', and if you read what I have read, you will not be able to sleep at night." (Extract from Australia Hansard Tuesday 5 June
2007 )
(See also Guardian report on renewable energy) ASPO
Books and websites
The Hirsch Report (pdf new window)
Matthew Simmons March 2008 :".. I think prices have to go way higher. The sooner people get used to the fact that we are still living in a fool' s paradise, the better ... you just can not argue that $100 a barrel is expensive when you realize it is 15 cents a cup - do you know anything other than crude oil that sells for 15 cents a cup? I know wine doesn' t, bottled water doesn' t."
Speakers: on peak oil and population - Rosamund McDougall (Optimum Population
Trust) - Download Audio on climate change and population - Louise Carver (Population and
Sustainability Network) - Download Audio
"The world has never faced a problem like Peak Oil. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary..." The Hirsch Report
Latest postings
pdf file(link mended) "... Looking forward, we can either plan an orderly energy
descent strategy or we can refuse to accept that the era of cheap energy is drawing to a
close and continue business as usual. Either way, energy policies and funding choices made
now will have lasting consequences for future generations Read in full or see below
LINKS
The End of Suburbia promo trailer (new window)
"...If energy weren' t very important then it wouldn' t matter that you have a need for 100 and a supply of 70. But since energy is the one thing that makes our entire global economy work ... when you start having that sort of mismatch, the bullies get to the front of the line and take it first. The urgency of this blows away this sort of vague worry about global warming: I don' t know anybody who thinks that' s an issue that will affect our lives in the next 15 or 20 years. If we don' t solve this in 10 years, it' s too late." Matthew Simmons (source)
What is "Peak Oil"?
Latest News in the press (Daily since April 2004)
"Our long-standing addiction to cheap oil has cost us dearly in terms of health, global security, human rights and a changing climate.
It has also long stifled investment and innovation in alternative energy sources and technologies.
Maybe we should look at expensive gas as an opportunity rather than a crisis."
Mitchell Anderson - staff scientist with the Sierra Legal Defence Fund in Vancouver.
Member States of the EEC have to maintain minimum stocks of crude oil and/or petroleum products Directive
January 2010 ~ In 2008, several leading UK companies formed an industry task force on peak oil and energy security. The UK task force will release an updated report this month.
We read at www.businessday.co.za that the task force includes major companies such as Virgin, Yahoo, Arup, Stagecoach and Solarcentury.
It released its first report in October 2008, warning that a "peak in cheap, easily available oil production is likely to hit by 2013".
Simon Taylor is one of the founding directors of the London-based nongovernmental organisation, Global Witness, which reports on conflicts over natural resources, is quoted:
"If you took pre-recession projected demand, say from June 2008, when the oil price was at its highest, you could see demand going up in this quite steep curve, and if you plot what's coming on stream in next five, six or seven years, less the decline rate, you end up with a collision between the supply and demand curves somewhere around 2011. If you do the same exercise with another project or two added (but bear in mind some have now been cancelled), and now with demand projected from around February 2009, then the lines collide later, around 2014. And if you project demand from this November, then the curve comes way back towards us again, somewhere around 2013. The collision point is somewhere around 2011-2014. Depending on how fast the economy recovers or not, and depending on possible moves to accelerate development of renewables, we have a real problem."
Also quoted is Will Whitehorn is president of Virgin’s space business, Virgin Galactic: " I think the British government has been advised by its public servants that peak oil is not so much of an issue, because their understanding of what 'peak oil' means is based on the alarmism of the 1970s. The problem is quite a lot of public servants 'cried wolf' about this in the past … but eventually the wolf usually does come to the door."
November 24 2009 ~ If Colin Campbell is right, then the IEA figure doubters - the whistleblower and the professor - are right.
www.heatingoil.com quotes a letter from Colin Campbell
explaining how there is no particular technique in evaluating the size of an oil field early in its life, and that there is naturally a range of estimates.
"But, he says, those estimates have been subject to serious distortions by oil companies. The oil companies have to comply with strict U.S. Stock Exchange rules created to prevent false exaggeration of oil resources, so they essentially do the opposite: report the minimum necessary and then continue to steadily revise the estimates upward, giving the false - yet comforting - impression of growing oil resources."
He considers that peak oil occurred last year, along with the great oil price spike and although it's more difficult to evaluate non-conventional oils, he suggests that the peak in all categories was passed in 2008.
November 15 2009 ~ "replacing the energy infrastructure of modern industrial societies will be no trivial matter...."
From Richard Heinberg's latest posting on
"...Decades have been spent building the current oil-coal-gas infrastructure, and trillions of dollars invested. Moreover, if the transition from current energy sources to alternatives is wrongly managed, the consequences could be severe: there is an undeniable connection between per-capita levels of energy consumption and economic well-being.
An important article. Read in full
2 A failure to supply sufficient energy, or energy of sufficient quality, could undermine the future welfare of humanity, while a failure to quickly make the transition away from fossil fuels could imperil the Earth's vital ecosystems.
Nonetheless, it remains a commonly held assumption that alternative energy sources capable of substituting for conventional fossil fuels are readily available - whether fossil (tar sands or oil shale), nuclear, or a long list of renewables - and ready to come on-line in a bigger way. All that is necessary, according to this view, is to invest sufficiently in them, and life will go on essentially as it is.
But is this really the case? Each energy source has highly specific characteristics. In fact, it has been the characteristics of our present energy sources (principally oil, coal, and natural gas) that have enabled the building of a modern society with high mobility, large population, and high economic growth rates. Can alternative energy sources perpetuate this kind of society? Alas, we think not..."November 9 2009 ~ Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower
Fascinating article from the Guardian reveals that the world is much closer to running out of easily obtained oil than official estimates admit. A whistleblower at the International Energy Agency says the IEA has been "deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying."
"The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies..." Read in full
October 8 2009 ~ UK Energy Research Council study warns that the government exhibits "little concern about oil depletion".
Now that the mainstream is taking the serious consequences of peak oil seriously it is interesting to read on the BBC today of the UK Energy Research Council's surprise that the UK government rarely mentions the issue in official publications.
UKERC now acknowledges that "Part of the difficulty in estimating the amount of oil left is that those with the reserves are often unwilling to divulge what can be commercially very sensitive information"
The report agrees that the "easy oil" has already been found, and new reserves will become increasingly difficult and expensive to extract: "... the probability and consequences of different outcomes has not been adequately assessed..... The rate of decline of production is accelerating. More than two thirds of existing capacity may need to be replaced by 2030 solely to prevent production from falling
While large resources of conventional oil may be available, these are unlikely to be accessed quickly and may make little difference to the timing of the global peak
A peak in conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020. Given the lead times required to both develop substitute fuels and improve energy efficiency, this risk needs to be given serious consideration..."
The report itself can be accessed on the UKERC website while Warmwell's peak oil pages have been updated regularly since 2004 and also include the warning from the the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil in August that the government "remains unprepared for peak oil"
Oct 6 2009 ~ End of the dollar for oil trading
Independent:
"..Last autumn's global financial crisis set off an economic earthquake. And we are still feeling the tremors. The latest sign of the ground shifting beneath our feet is our report today of plans by Gulf states, China, Russia, France and Japan to end their practice of conducting oil deals in US dollars, switching instead to a diverse basket of currencies.
The decline of American economic power is mirrored in this decline of the dollar and it is also an indication of China's extraordinary new financial power. America's power to interfere in the international financial system is waning and we are looking at a very different world order coming into being.
It is not hard to see the motivation for oil exporters to move away from the dollar. The value of the US currency has fallen sharply since last year's meltdown. And fears are growing, in the light of a spiralling US government deficit, that a further depreciation is likely. They do not want to sell their wares in return for a currency with an uncertain future. .."Oct 6 2009 ~ Deutsche Bank says the end of the oil era is upon us
Wall Street Blog entry by Keith Johnson quotes the Deutsche Bank:
"US demand is the key. It is the last market-priced, oil inefficient, major oil consumer. We believe Obama's environmental agenda, the bankruptcy of the US auto industry, the war in Iraq, and global oil supply challenges have dovetailed to spell the end of the oil era..."
(The Deutsche Bans seems to think that electric and hybrid vehicles will drastically lower demand for oil. Extraordinary.)Sept 18 2009 ~ Not your average peak oil theory, from Macquarie
Financial Times/Energy Source
Extract:
"Mainstream financial analyst types tend to shy away from talking about peak oil - even when they are talking up a looming supply crunch, this is usually attributed to the short- to mid-term under-investment problem. So a presentation by Iain Reid, a senior oil analyst at Macquarie Bank, stirred much excitement when some details were published this week.
Under a slide titled ‘Not your average peak oil theory', he writes that there is no shortage of oil reserves, but problems of access, technology and risk. Meanwhile, there are three mini-trends: resource nationalism; new oil supplies being technologically challenging; and much of the easy oil in politically difficult regions.
.... a few key points about the slide:
Read in fullSept 17 2009 ~ The Next Price Spike
Tom Whipple
Falls Church News Press Extract:
The peak oil thesis holds that the cessation of further growth in world oil production will be accompanied by wild price swings as the world attempts to adjust to the new state of affairs.....
... As the US consumes roughly 20 million barrels of the stuff daily, our collective oil bill at the 2002 low was $400 million each day. By July 2008 the bill was up to $2.8 billion each day or a $2.4 billion daily increase.....Needless to say, the $4-5 gasoline prices of last summer brought some reduction in demand for oil when prices were high, and dampened sales of SUV's and pickups. Nine months later, the bailout of Detroit was to cost the taxpayers $10's of billions more - and the story isn't over yet.....
Despite the global recession, oil climbed back into the $70's leaving some OPEC producers happy enough to start cheating on their production quotas to take advantage of the better prices. So there the matter rests - at least for awhile.
... As the various stimulus packages take hold in the U.S., Europe and China some economic activity is starting to revive even as foreclosures and unemployment increases and house prices continue to fall. demand for oil in the U.S. is starting to pick up..... the current issue is whether prices will climb into economy-damaging territory in 2009, 2010, or 2011. ...." Read in full
Sept 9 2009 ~ "The peak oil story is definitely a bad news story. There's just no way to sugar-coat it..." Dr Robert Hirsch
In "The Stonewalling of Peak Oil" by Steve Andrews,
Robert Hirsch, author of the 2005 Hirsch Report (pdf new window), is interviewed on the deliberate avoidance by the U.S. government to talk about peak oil.
"..I began to home in on the likely timing of the decline of world oil production being sometime within the next five years....I have faith in people ultimately. But it's a bad news story and anybody who's going to stand up and talk about the bad news story and is in a position of responsibility in the government needs to then follow immediately and say "Here's what we're going to do about it," and no one seems prepared to do that. .... Peak oil is a bigger issue than health care, than federal budget deficits, and so forth. We're talking about something that, to take a middle of the road position - not the Armageddon extreme and not the la-la optimism of some people - is going to be extremely damaging to the U.S. and world economies for a very long period of time. There are no quick fixes. I'm afraid that, no matter what any of us do, we're not going to get the public's attention until oil prices jump way back up again.... People's focus and attention these days is on recessionary issues, and they don't want new bad news added to the bad news they're already dealing with. I wish I could be optimistic and say that there is a magic wand of some sort, but if there is I don't know what it is.
See full interview with Dr Hirsch, published Sept 9 2009
I've tried to think outside the box in terms of how we get the message out and get people's attention. I found nothing that I could do that I'm not already doing... But other people have other thoughts, opportunities, and connections, so I would urge them to conceive of ways to rationally and reasonably get more decision-makers involved in 1) recognizing the problem and 2) helping to elevate it to the highest levels of government, so serious action can begin.... "
September 4 2009 ~ "Until the world's oil producers allow third-party audits...."
".... of the flow rates of the world's largest oil fields, which they have so far been reluctant to do, it is impossible to know just how dire a situation we are in. I believe that such an audit would prove peak oil, but it is certainly irresponsible to make optimistic projections without hard data.
Once this transparency is attained, we can debate true facts and end flow of myths that led so many well-intentioned people into so many bad decisions about the future of oil." Concluding remarks in Matthew Simmons' article today in Foreign Policy magazine.Sept 2 2009 ~ "BP find would not fundamentally change the longer-term supply-and-demand picture."
Guardian "The International Energy Agency said in its 2008 report that the world needed to find six new Saudi Arabias to meet the growing demand for oil in the future," said Jeremy Leggett, chairman of the renewable power company Solarcentury, and a key peak energy specialist.
"This [BP] find is welcome but its not going to take concerns away at a time when existing fields are depleting faster than expected and the new discoveries have a very long lead time."
Leggett pointed out that it would take many years for BP to bring any Tiber fields onstream, pointing out that the huge Kashagan find in the Caspian Sea, in which BP has sold its stake, was meant to produce its first oil in 2005 but is now targeting 2013 as a start-up date..."
September 1 2009 ~ World airlines slump to £1.2bn loss as oil price rises and fares fall
Guardian
"Iata predicts $2bn loss in traditionally most profitable second quarter could herald a $9bn loss for the year"
August 26 2009 ~ The US oil price rally at the $75-a-barrel level fizzles out and returns to 72.05 dollars a barrel
www.channelnewsasia.com"...New York oil prices briefly struck 75 dollars per barrel on Tuesday for the first time in 10 months before falling sharply ahead of new inventory data in the United States, the world's top energy user.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October delivery, spiked to 75.00 dollars, a level last seen in October 2008 before the global recession, as the market welcomed a report showing rising US consumer confidence.
But investors started selling when the contract did not surge past the 75-dollar mark. It settled at 72.05 dollars a barrel, down 2.32 dollars from Monday's close. ..."
Hanson Westhouse analyst David Hart is quoted as saying that 70 percent of the economy is driven by consumer spending and " if the consumer is feeling better then that bodes well for the economy, which is good for energy demand."
August 13 2009 ~ UK government "remains unprepared for peak oil" says the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil
The recession, DEFRA's acknowledgement of the food security crisis, the loss of cheap supplies of oil, gas, coal and water - all point to a world that is changing irrevocably. Richard Heinberg's diagnosis and explanation for the current crisis is, he says
"... not for the faint of heart because, if correct, it implies that the patient is far sicker than even the most pessimistic economists are telling us. But if it is correct, then by ignoring it we risk even greater peril.." (See also peak oil page)
The All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil (APPGOPO) report, ' Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) : A Policy Framework for Peak Oil and Climate Change' here (pdf)co-written with The Lean Economy Connection urges the government to begin planning for energy rationing. Rob Hopkins (here) calls the TEQs scheme "A watertight proposal that deserves to be spread as widely as possible, as it is an idea of its time.."
John Hemming MP, Chairman of APPGOPO: "The evidence is now strong that peak oil is either upon us or just over the horizon. Even the International Energy Agency accepts that an oil supply crunch seems to be on its way... "
Mr Hemming said he believed the only comprehensive and fair way to tackle the coming oil crisis is rationing by tradeable quotas otherwise consumption would have to be held back through massive price increases. (More on TEQs)August 12 2009 ~ "...now the potential for renewed high oil prices acts as a ceiling for economic recovery."
Richard Heinberg on Temporary Recession or the End of Growth?".....Whenever the economy does
appear to show renewed signs of life (as has happened in May-July this year, with stock values rebounding and the
general pace of economic contraction slowing somewhat), oil prices will take off again as oil speculators anticipate a
recovery of demand. Indeed, oil prices have rebounded from $30 in January to nearly $70 currently, provoking
widespread concern that high energy prices could nip recovery in the bud.(14)
A barrel of oil from newly developed sources costs in the neighborhood of $60 to produce, now that all of the cheaper
prospects have been exploited: finding new oilfields today usually means drilling under miles of ocean water, or in
politically unstable nations where equipment and personnel are at high risk. (15) So as soon as consumers demand more
oil, the price will have to stay noticeably above that figure in order to provide the incentive for producers to drill.
Volatile oil prices hurt on the upside, but they also hurt on the downside. The oil price collapse of August-December 2008,
plus the worsening credit crisis, caused a dramatic contraction in oil industry investment, leading to the cancellation of
about $150 billion worth of new oil production projects - whose potential productive capacity will be required to offset
declines in existing oilfields if world oil production is to remain stable...." (The article must be read in full)
August 4 2009 ~
A sustainable future for coal?
Lewis Smith in the Telegraph says, "Coal has become the ugly sister of power sources...
Yet beneath the Firth of Forth, in a coalfield of more than 200 square miles...500 metres or more beneath the surface.... two recently improved technologies underground coal gasification and fuel cells. Rather than having the coal dug out, oxygen and water would be pumped down the mine to create a white-hot chemical reaction that turned the coal into gas. This process would not only generate electricity more efficiently than wind, nuclear or conventional gas and coal power plants, but would enable the capture and storage of more than 99 per cent of the CO2 contained in the fuel before it escaped into the atmosphere...
August 3 2009 ~ Peak Oil - today's Independent
The warnings of Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA), are quoted today on the Independent's front page The newspaper is taking very seriously warnings that "the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years - at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated." This too is the view of Jeremy Legett - and has been the concern of this website since 2004.(new window)
One wonders when the state of denial will have to end and whether continuing belief in infinite growth will falter in time. The grass roots wisdom of the Transition Towns initiative is grasping the nettle - but the only signs of leadership from government are in the House of Commons All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil (APPGOPO).
August 3 2009 ~ "Peak oil is conspicious by its absence, as a result of which the Plan misses many opportunities"
Rob Hopkins' recent comments on the Government's White Paper on Energy:
(Extract) ".... this Plan is based on the assumption that economic growth is still feasible and that the cheap energy exists to make it possible, and that a gentle descent of the UK's oil dependency is possible. In this context, peak oil is a bit like the drunken ex-partner who turns up at the wedding, who everyone tries to ignore, but their being ignored doesn't mean that they aren't there, or that they aren't going to do something mortifying at some unspecified moment....the energy we can extract from fossil fuels on the downward half of the Hubbert Curve are far lower than what we extracted on the upside. The implications of this are alarming for the assumptions that underpin this document..."
Read in full at www.energybulletin.net And Richard Heinberg says, "... It is too late to prepare for Peak Oil - a year too late, in fact. Now the name of the game is adaptation. We are in an entirely new economic environment, in which old assumptions about the inevitability of perpetual growth, and the usefulness of leveraging investments based on expectations of future growth, are crashing in flames.." (More).August 3 2009 ~ Peak Oil - today's Independent
The warnings of Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA), are quoted today on the Independent's front page The newspaper is taking very seriously warnings that "the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years - at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated." This too is the view of Jeremy Legett - and has been the concern of this website since 2004.(new window)
One wonders when the state of denial will have to end and whether continuing belief in infinite growth will falter in time. The grass roots wisdom of the Transition Towns initiative is grasping the nettle - but the only signs of leadership from government are in the House of Commons All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil (APPGOPO).
July 2009 ~ Population Issues, Peak Oil and Climate Change
Population Issues, Peak Oil and Climate Change
Wednesday, 22 July 2009
A joint meeting with the All Party Climate Change
Group.
June 30 2009 ~ "slow decline in global crude oil production currently and then accelerating after December 2010.."
- The diagrams on the Green Central Times blog do starkly show the decline in crude and net oil production.
June 23 2009 ~Do you believe in 'peak oil'? asks the Investors' Chronicle
- ..and goes on to give the opinions of two experts whose views are at opposite ends of the spectrum; Matthew Simmonds says Yes. He is chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International. Wikipedia calls him
- "a prominent oil-industry insider and one of the world's leading experts on the topic of peak oil. Simmons was motivated by the 1973 energy crisis to create an investment banking firm catering to oil companies. In his previous capacity, he served as energy adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush..."
- "...All that is needed to end the Peak Oil debate once and for all is an independent audit of the world's 300 largest producing oil fields. Sadly, too many of these fields, owned primarily by Opec countries, still guard their production and reserve numbers as "state secret." But the time is fast approaching when world leaders will demand honest facts about the flow rates of these key fields. When this happens, the proof that oil has already peaked will be air-tight."
June 11 2009 ~ Goodbye to cheap oil.
- For the first time, the well-respected Energy Information Administration seems to be agreeing that the era of cheap and plentiful oil is pretty much over. The author of Rising Powers,
Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy(Amazon) writes the latest TomDispatch and the conclusion may make readers want to read the rest ....
- " At first glance, the International Energy Outlook for 2009 hardly looks different from previous editions: a tedious compendium of tables and text on global energy trends. Looked at another way, however, it trumpets the headlines of the future -- and their news is not comforting.
The global energy equation is changing rapidly, and with it is likely to come great power competition, economic peril, rising starvation, growing unrest, environmental disaster, and shrinking energy supplies, no matter what steps are taken. No doubt the 2010 edition of the report and those that follow will reveal far more, but the new trends in energy on the planet are already increasingly evident -- and unsettling."
June 2009 ~ London After Peak Oil
| ||||||||
Wednesday 10 June, 2009 ~ Oil prices steadily creeping up again.
- The Guardian reports that oil prices "hit a new seven-month high today, fuelling suggestions that the world could soon see a return of the $100 barrel of crude..."
May 27 2009 ~ sixth month high of $63 a barrel today
- Guardian
"The price of oil rose to a sixth month high of $63 a barrel today after Saudi Arabia's oil minister said that global demand was increasing.
...
US crude oil for July delivery rose to $63.45 a barrel on the back of the news. This is the highest level since mid-November. In London, Brent prices increased by 81 cents to reach $62.05 a barrel.
.... Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital, said: "We're not really seeing a strong recovery yet, but I think Opec are implying they don't see oil demand falling any further. ... Opec, which produces 40% of the world's oil, is widely expected to keep the oil cartel's production steady when it meets tomorrow..... It has cut its production target three times since September in a desperate bid to stabilise prices that tumbled from record highs of above $147 per barrel in July 2008 to $32.40 in December."
May 27 2009 ~ Oil price climbing
- Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, hinted today that even higher prices, around $75-$80, - might be reached later this year as - he says - oil demand continues to rise.
However, according to the International Energy Agency, oil consumption will contract this year by 2.6m barrels a day, the steepest drop since 1981. The FT says:
-
"...Mr Naimi's comments come as many traders in the physical oil market are far less optimistic, pointing to still weak demand outside Asia and record high inventories."
May 25 2009 ~ 75% rise in the price of oil since February
- The Economist's article
on the present price of oil is worrying to those who consider the loss of cheap energy to be far more of a real threat than climate change. Oil prices have been rising steadily in recent weeks. The coloured chart in the article shows this starkly. The Economist says:
- " ...
The explanation is simple. Oilmen are worried because they believe that many of the factors behind the record-breaking ascent last year remain in place. Much of the world's "easy" oil has already been extracted, or is in the hands of nationalist governments that will not allow foreigners to exploit it. That leaves firms to hunt for new reserves in ever more inhospitable and inaccessible places...Worse, new discoveries tend to be smaller than in the past and to run dry faster."
May 4 2009 ~ "..mankind better get ready to live in a peak oil world because we believe the peak is now behind us.."
- Wall Street Journal Blog "(analysts) Raymond James's notes that non-OPEC oil production apparently peaked in the first quarter of 2007, and given precipitous falls in oil output from Russia to Mexico, there's not much hope for a recovery. OPEC production - and thus global output - peaked a little later, in the first quarter of 2008, Raymond James says.
.....the “tyranny of geology” that limits the easy production of ever-more crude. "Those declines had to have come for involuntary reasons such as the inherent geological limits of oil fields … We believe that the oil market has already crossed over to the downward sloping side of Hubbert's Peak," the analysts write. If true - and the analysts note that true historical peaks are only visible in the distant rear-view mirror - then expect oil prices to jump back toward triple digits...."
April 26 2009 ~ "... for those who are more worried about oil depletion, the Budget was utterly hollow."
- The Independent "The car scrappage scheme came without efficiency conditions attached, the return to inflation-plus fuel duty increases was welcome but timid compared to the escalator that was killed off by the petrol protests of 2000, and tax breaks for North Sea operators will do little to stem the decline in output. Production has halved since its peak in 1999, and is now dropping at 7 per cent a year, dragging Britain ever deeper into import dependency.
Still less will the Budget improve the global oil outlook. The International Energy Agency forecasts a "supply crunch" early in the next decade, Shell predicts a production plateau from 2015, and the head of the Libyan National Oil Company sees peak oil looming. .."
April 11 2009 ~ 10 oil tankers, each carrying up to 250,000 tonnes of crude oil, waiting in Lyme Bay for prices to rise
- BBC "Up to 60 tankers around the world are currently being used as storage tankers in anticipation of oil price rises.
We've got one that's been here eight weeks
The owner is happy because he's getting money for his ship and the speculators are happy too. ..."
March 27 2009 ~ Sharp reductions in investments and low oil prices could curb future supplies by almost eight million barrels a day within the next five years
- The New York Times reports "... according to a study scheduled for release Friday, the latest warning that the world could face a new energy shock when the economy picks up.
The report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an oil consulting firm, said that the potential drop in production capacity is a "powerful and long-lasting aftershock following the oil price collapse."
The global slowdown has forced oil companies to slash their investments, postpone or cancel expansion plans, or delay drilling in many corners of the world. ..Oil prices have fallen by 63 percent from their peak of $147 a barrel last summer. They are now trading around $54 a barrel after OPEC producers curbed supplies to prevent a price collapse. " The NYT quotes Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister:
- ... "I have often described unsustainably low oil prices as carrying the seeds of future spikes and volatility. In a low-price environment, the trend is often to focus on survival instead of expansion..."
March 18 2009 ~ "Any questions as to whether any Middle-east crude will be available to the UK in 2011 are studiously ignored in Shell."
- Kunstler.com carries this letter from "an employee in the British oil industry"
- "... The general attitude is one of, 'Since we will need the oil, it will be available'. ...What they fail to mention, even to their own employees is just how little oil and gas will be coming out of the North sea then...
Both the government and the media are obsessed with global warming.... Inside the oil industry it is well known that the UK government is regularly briefed by the oil companies. Evidently the government have made the decision to use global warming as a way of encouraging thrift in oil usage - with absolutely no effect.
.... In terms of politics, the Labour party evidently regard discussions about oil depletion as near treason, whilst the Tory party is still proud of the way they defeated the miners. Neither party is exactly in the right frame of mind to restart the nuclear industry or open up new coal mines. ...
... the Labour party is allowing and even encouraging supermarkets to destroy farming in the UK. ... Agricultural production has dropped disastrously in recent years, with thousands of farmers being forced into bankruptcy by the monopolies enjoyed by the likes of Tesco (big and nasty) and Sainsbury (smaller and nasty)...... In the UK, we are packed in like sardines in terms of population density, which spells disaster when the oil gets short..."
March 5 2009 ~ IEA's Nabuo Tanaka worried that demand will snap back, starting a trend that will lead to higher prices and no spare production capacity by 2013.
- (From Peak Oil Review March 2) "...With OPEC still receiving 40 dollars or less for its oil, many analysts are predicting that OPEC will make another 1 million b/d cut at the March 15th meeting.... The oft repeated sentiment is that oil prices will never rise as long as the global economy contracts.
As the Saudis are likely to bear the brunt of an additional production cut, talk continues as to how much further the Kingdom can cut production without endangering the vital natural gas supply which is needed to keep the country functioning.
The EIA reported this week that US petroleum demand in 2008 fell by 6 percent or 1.2 million b/d to 19.4 million b/d. For December consumption was down to 19.1 million b/d or a drop of 7.4 percent from 2007. Preliminary numbers from January and February 2009 suggest that demand has rebounded a little but is still well below the same months in 2006 and 2007.
The key issue remains whether global demand has fallen as much as the 3.4 million b/d that OPEC appears to have cut its production. If this is the case then global stocks should start falling soon..."
Quote of the Week
- "The [economic] numbers coming out of Japan, Germany, Eastern Europe, U.K., and U.S.A. are all frightening. There's no sunshine out there."
March 5 2009 ~ The U.S. GAO concludes there's an urgent need to assess and develop alternative energy technologies to avert "severe economic damage"
- (GAO report)Letter to www2.ljworld.com/news "...The DOE warned of "extremely damaging" impacts if measures aren't put in place at least 10 years ahead of time.
Peak oil impacts range from dire to catastrophic. At best, we face a crippling recession and widespread inflation. At worst, we face severe global food shortages threatening wide-scale starvation and an overall breakdown of social and economic institutions. And if history's any guide, we should expect a series of military invasions into every remaining oil field on the planet.
....
Some point at alternative energy technologies as a silver bullet. But most energy analysts say it'll be decades before such alternatives are available for wide-scale implementation.."
February 15 2009 ~ The world will never be able to produce more than 89m barrels a day of oil: chief executive of Total
- FT "... He noted that national oil companies... were "substantially limited in their ability to fund investments in the current [financial] environment".
... Mr de Margerie warned that the glut of oil caused by the dramatic reduction in demand would be short-lived.... Mr de Margerie now expects a faster decline in production at older fields, such as those in the North Sea. At lower price levels, companies will find it harder to justify the greater cost of keeping such fields pumping. ..."
Feb 5 2009 ~OPEC could remove more oil from the market
- Guardian
"..... A global financial crisis, which started with a downturn in the U.S. housing market, has triggered recessions in all of the big industrialised economies, sharp slowdowns elsewhere and put millions of jobs on the line.
That in turn has cut the demand for oil and swelled fuel stocks, knocking more than $100 a barrel off the price of crude since its July 2008 peak near $150. However, oil's losses have been limited by signals this week from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that it may cut oil production further in an attempt to bolster the market. OPEC's president said on Tuesday the group could remove more oil from the market if needed. OPEC, worried that the global economic downturn is reducing oil demand and pressuring prices, has promised to reduce oil production by a total of 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from levels seen in September..."
Jan 9 2009 ~ "Crude has become so cheap, it is being stored at sea to avoid selling it at current market prices."
- AP
"Demand for oil appears to remain weak as traders are seeking as many as 10 supertankers to store crude," Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, said in a research note. "The carriers hold about 2 million barrels of crude and traders are seeking to lease the ships for three to nine months."
Investors have also been concerned that a conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could spread to the rest of oil-rich Middle East and affect supplies...."
22 Dec 2008 ~When the global economy recovers, there is no doubt that more oil, and other sources of energy, will be needed.
- FT
"The plunging oil price is like a dangerously addictive painkiller: short-term relief is being provided at a cost of serious long-term harm.
It took more than four years for oil to go from $35 per barrel in 2004 to over $147 in July 2008, and less than six months to fall all the way back again.
For hard-pressed businesses and consumers in the US, Europe and other oil importers, the price collapse has been one ray of light in an increasingly gloomy economic outlook.
But it has also caused a seismic shock to the energy industry worldwide, re-shaping it in ways that will often be unwelcome for oil consumers.
The full implications have yet to sink in....If the investments in energy supply are not made, then supplies will be tight, and prices will soar again - quite possibly even higher than they went last summer.
Al Romig of Sandia National Laboratories, a US government national security research centre, argues that price volatility is one of the most serious obstacles to developing alternatives....."
16 Dec 2008 ~ Crude oil prices rose
- ahead of the official announcement that Opec would announce its largest ever supply cut on Wednesday after Saudi Arabia said the cartel had agreed in principle for production to be reduced by 2m barrels-a-day...FT
15 Dec 2008 ~ Supertankers store 50m barrels of oil
-
FT "Oil companies and traders are storing at least 50m barrels of oil in supertankers in a clear sign of supply outstripping demand as the global economy slows.
The surge in floating storage, - enough to meet France's oil imports for a month and the biggest since late 2001 - , is likely to push the Opec oil cartel, which is due to meet on Wednesday in Oran, Algeria, to make a deeper production cut to reduce stocks. Storing oil in tankers is unusual as it is significantly more expensive than inland.
...Oil prices rose briefly above $50 a barrel, recovering from a four-year low of $40.50 earlier this month....
Several Opec officials have suggested a 2m barrels-a-day cut, the biggest in recent history, and were also hoping to persuade Russia - the world's largest oil producer outside the cartel - to make a reduction.
But with Russia's oil output already declining because of a lack of investment, any commitment is likely to be seen as a political gesture rather than an actual reduction.
Whatever the size of Opec's cut, the floating storage surge is a clear sign the cartel is losing its battle to cut supplies more quickly than demand falls.
Jens Martin Jensens, managing director at Bermuda-based Frontline, the world's largest operator of supertankers, said that as many as 25 supertankers - each holding about 2m barrels - were being used as floating storage worldwide. Other traders suggested a similar number, pointing to companies such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell and traders such as Vitol and Koch as the holders of the oil....."
14 Nov 2008 ~ EU plan to loosen Russia' s grip on energy
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"The European Commission has proposed a new company to bring gas from central Asia to Europe via the Caspian Sea in a move likely to raise tensions at Friday' s meeting of EU and Russian leaders.
The Caspian route, which would require the construction of a new pipeline, would enable the EU to bypass Russia in order to access the resources of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which last month announced it had discovered one of the world' s biggest gas fields.
The plan was launched as a centrepiece of an energy security plan that seeks to cut EU member states' reliance on Russia.
The strategic energy review comes at a delicate time as the EU will on Friday try to restart talks with Russia over economic and energy agreements that were cancelled in the wake of its invasion of Georgia in August. It also comes after steep rises in energy prices, and internal squabbling over an EU climate package that would force member states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020.....
The proposals outline a network of pipelines that would carry gas from the Caspian region, including the Nabucco project, for a pipeline from eastern Turkey to Austria.
14 Nov 2008 ~ Oil prices will soar
- Straits Times "Oil prices could soar dramatically after the world economy picks up due to delays in energy investment during the credit crisis, the head of the International Energy Agency warned on Friday.
The Paris-based agency on Thursday slashed its forecast for oil prices in 2009 to US$80 (S$121) from US$110 a barrel as developed economies brace for recession. But it also warned that the price could jump to more than US$200 a barrel by 2030 as demand soars in China, India and other emerging economies. 'What we are worried about is that oil development is being delayed', IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka told a news conference in Tokyo. 'As supply falls, prices are likely to surge when the global economy gets back on its feet', he said. .."
13 Nov 2008 ~ IEA warns of oil supply crunch
- The Independent
"The world faces an oil supply crunch that could push prices above this summer's eye-watering 147 dollars per barrel high if falling prices put the brakes on exploration and production expansion, the International Energy Agency said yesterday.
Although global energy demand projections are slightly lower than last year because of the economic slowdown, delayed spending on new projects such as the exploitation of Canadian tar sands will cause supply problems that could choke economic recovery. Nobuo Tanaka, the executive director, said: "We cannot let the financial and economic crisis delay the policy action that is urgently needed to ensure secure energy supplies and to curtail rising emissions of greenhouse gases."
November 9 2008 ~ "will global crude demand really fall?"
- Telegraph ".... Oil use in the fast-growing, populous emerging markets - which now represent almost half of total world crude demand - grew 5pc last year.
Even if the big Eastern economies slow, their collective GDP will still expand around 5 to 6pc next year - meaning millions more newly-affluent consumers will enter the energy-intensive world of car ownership, air-conditioning and protein-rich diets. In my view, such "structural" rises in Eastern energy use will offset any "cyclical" fall in the West, keeping oil demand firm.
The supply side of the energy market looks even less likely to provide rate-slashers with comfort. The Opec cartel is alive and kicking, having just cut global oil sales by 2pc. More credible evidence is also emerging that supplies of the world's largest oil fields are declining faster than previously thought.
Consider also that recent falls in oil prices, combined with the credit crunch, will cut energy infrastructure investment, undermining future supplies even more. Last week, BG Group postponed "indefinitely" a multi billion-dollar investment in Karachaganak - one of Kazakhstan's biggest oil and gasfields.
One reason oil has fallen lately is the stronger dollar - seeing as crude is priced in US currency. The dollar's recent mini-rally, in turn, has been driven by a "rush from risk" in which US-based and other dollar-denominated asset managers have turned away from emerging markets. But that episode of "dollar repatriation" is now over. And when the dollar starts falling again - as it will - oil will crank back up.
The recent dip in crude prices is a temporary downswing in a much longer-term trend. That trend most definitely points up, a reality we ignore at our peril."
October 24 2008 ~ The oil price has plummeted by more than half from its all-time high of $147 per barrel in July
- www.independent.co.uk ".... Opec has already cut production this autumn, but to no avail. The price dipped below $80 for the first time since August 2007 last week - triggering today's extraordinary session - and is continuing its slide. Despite yesterday's gains, prices for North Sea Brent and US crude, for December delivery, were both below $70 per barrel.
The big question today is the size of any production cut, an issue on which Opec members are split. Last week the Qatari oil minister anticipated reduction in supply of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), and his Ecuadorean counterpart was quoting an ideal price of $80 per barrel. This week a Libyan government official described the market as "flooded" and questioned whether a 1 million bpd cut would be sufficient. By yesterday, the Iranian oil minister, Gholamhossein Nozari, was touting a 2 million bpd reduction..
But some of Opec's biggest members, including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, are less bullish, emphasising that any measures must take into account the global financial crisis. More expensive energy will strengthen the recessionary tendencies in economies across the developed world, putting even greater pressure on prices. ."
October 12 2008 ~ In 2006, Dr. Colin Campbell, geologist, former Vice-President of Fina Oil Company and founder of ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) foresaw the current financial meltdown.
- On a video interview [here]
available on YouTube, he said:
-
"Expansion becomes impossible without abundant cheap energy. So I think
that the debt of the world is going bad. That speaks of a financial crisis,
unseen, probably equalling the Great Depression of 1930; it's probable we face
the Second Great Depression. It would be a chain reaction, one bank would fail,
and another one would fail, industries will close…"
October 3 2008 ~ Matt Simmons: Oil and Gas -- The Next Meltdown? (video and audio)
-
"Drawing parallels with the current financial meltdown, Matthew Simmons, the CEO of Simmons & Company International, expresses his alarm about gasoline stocks being the lowest in several decades and refinery production down following recent hurricanes. He warns that if there were a run on the "energy bank" by everyone topping off their gasoline tanks, the U.S. would be out of fuel in three days, and grocery shelves largely emptied in a week. ..."
September 30 2008 ~ Oil fell below $100 on 700 dollar bailout rejection
- Oil prices tumbled by more than $10 a barrel as the US
House of Representatives failed to gather enough votes to pass the $700bn
bail-out package while gold prices jumped in response to a spate of bank
failures in Europe FT
September 19 2008 ~ Oil is "all over the place"
- money.cnn.com
".....After falling more than $10 Monday and Tuesday on fears that the crisis on Wall Street would further reduce demand for petroleum products, crude has gained back all of its losses - and then some - from earlier in the week. Oil prices rose by $6.01 - the second-largest margin ever - Wednesday, followed by a near $1 rise Thursday as initial end-of-the-world fears continued to ease.
"Oil just doesn't know what it is anymore," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading. "Investors aren't sure if it's a good hedge against systemic risk or not - it's all over the place."...."
September 11 2008 ~ "Opec's decision to cut supplies risks keeping oil prices at very high levels
- cutting short a fall from July's record price, the International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday.
Washington also criticised the oil cartel's move, which came less than 60 days before US elections in which voters are citing high energy prices as one of their top concerns..." FT
September 9 2008 ~ "....physical reality and economic theory part company in many instances, and Peak Oil defines one of the most important of these"
- Richard Heinberg "Is peak oil "A Misleading Concept?" "......Departing from reality sometimes has severe consequences.
I must return to that word "misleading." The economists are telling us we have nothing to worry about. Oil may get a bit more expensive, but there will always be plenty of liquid fuel to keep us going - to keep the planes flying, the tractors plowing, and the SUVs ferrying kids to soccer practice. If these people are wrong (and I strongly believe they are), they are not just "misleading" us conceptually; they are guiding us straight over a cliff."
(8 September 2008)
September 9 2008 ~ Oil has fallen nearly 30 percent from a record peak of $147.27 a barrel
- Reuters SA "Oil prices fell to a new five-month low on Tuesday, pressured by a rise in the U.S. dollar and expectations that OPEC will not cut output when it meets later in the day.
U.S. crude for October delivery was down $1.39 a barrel at $104.95 by 0931 GMT, after briefly falling more than $2 to touch a new five-month low of $104.23 a barrel.
London Brent crude was $1.41 down at $102.03 a barrel, closing in on the $100 mark.
The dollar's rise to a one-year peak against a basket of currencies has spurred a shift away from commodities that has driven down prices across the spectrum.
Oil is under pressure despite the potential threat from Hurricane Ike, which is headed towards the U.S. Gulf and offshore oil fields that produce a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas.
"If it weren't for the hurricanes, oil should be below $100 a barrel, considering the sentiment," said Tetsu Emori, fund manager at Astmax Co Ltd...."
August 28 2008 ~ "Oil prices rose as traders kept close watch on the progress of tropical storm Gustav ..."
- FT "..amid mounting concerns that it could affect oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.
Gustav was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm after coming ashore in Haiti but weather forecasters predict it will regain hurricane strength...."
August 26 2008 ~ Mexico's Cantarell oil output falls again in July
- Reuters "Crude output from Mexico's struggling Cantarell oil field fell for the 10th month in a row in July to 974,000 barrels per day, energy ministry data showed on Tuesday..."
August 22 2008 ~ a move that all but erases hopes that the cost of gasoline will keep falling
- Los Angeles Times "A weaker dollar and rising tensions between Russia and the West sent oil prices roaring more than $5 a barrel higher Thursday, a move that all but erases hopes that the cost of gasoline will keep falling....Jim Ritterbusch, president of an oil trading advisory firm in Galena, Ill., said the Russian conflict "injected a fresh round of geopolitical risk premium" into the price of oil...."
August 17 2008 ~"Less publicised were the Russian missile strikes near the Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, one of several arteries in the the Caucasus that bring oil and gas to the west.
- Telegraph
Some 50 missiles struck within a few hundred metres of this key oil transit route. There is no evidence that the Russians intended to hit the BTC, which is 30 per cent-owned by BP, the UK energy major. But it was a salutary warning at a time when the European Union is desperate to reduce its dependency on Russian oil and gas...
According to Samuel Ciszuk, an analyst at Global Insight: "The entire route of the BTC, the only major oil pipeline from the Caspian region outside of Russia's control, should now be treated as high-risk, and Turkey's viability as an energy bridge to Europe has been thrown into question."....
.Russia is no longer a military superpower, but its vast natural resources mean it will become an energy superpower over the next decade. Russia's state energy giant, Gazprom, produces 85 per cent of the country's natural gas and controls 17 per cent of the world's reserves. The European Union gets 25 per cent of its gas from Russia, and that is set to rise. Britain's proposal to build a new generation of nuclear power stations is a race to diversify energy supplies and reduce dependency on Russia and the Middle East. But until these reactors start coming on stream, from 2017 at the earliest, Britain, with its North Sea reserves dwindling fast, will have to look to places like Kazakhstan if it wants alternatives to Russia. "
August 16 2008 ~ "Charlie Hall: How much oil and gas will increased drilling provide? Geology's Answer: Not Much."
- (The Oil Drum) "...... The answer seems inescapable: the rate of drilling for oil in the United States has been unrelated to finding or producing oil and gas, which is determined principally by geology. Mother nature, not market theory, determines resource availability, at least in this case and probably many more." See also Charles Hall website.
August 14 2008 ~ Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday
- says the FT "leading grains and base metals higher, after US weekly inventories data showed unexpectedly large declines in crude oil and product stocks.
Nymex September West Texas Intermediate rose $4.13 to $117.14 a barrel after touching a session high of $117.43 while ICE September Brent added $3.54 at $114.69 a barrel. .."
Aug 4 2008 ~ Crude oil fell below $120 a barrel for the first time since May
- Bloomberg "Crude oil fell below $120 a barrel for the first time since May amid speculation that Tropical Storm Edouard will miss most offshore oil facilities as it approaches the coast of Texas....The commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Brigadier General Mohammad-Ali Ja'fari, announced the weapons test today on state-run news services. He also reiterated a warning that Iran could respond to any attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's oil is exported...."
July 24 2008 ~ Crude and food falls help lift equities
-
Oil prices continued to fall, dropping below $125 for the first time in six weeks and fuelling declines in other commodities that hit record highs earlier in the month such as corn and soyabeans FT "Stuart Schweitzer, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, said stocks were benefiting from the fall in oil prices.
"Slower global growth should arrest the oil price rise and reduce the broader fear of inflation. World growth has slowed to a point where it is capturing the attention of the oil market," he said
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Merrill Lynch, said that although some of the fundamental supply and demand pressures governing commodity prices were improving, oil prices are likely to remain volatile.
Oil prices on Wednesday fell to an intraday low of $124.56 a barrel, down almost $4 on the day.
Analysts were cautious about calling the peak of the commodities market, recalling that there had been similar retreats last summer when the credit crisis broke, and in March this year, which later proved short-lived...."
July 24 2008 ~ Arctic has 90bn barrels of crude
- Reuters says, "The Arctic Circle holds an estimated 90 billion barrels of recoverable oil, enough supply to meet current world demand for almost three years, the U.S. Geological Survey forecast on Wednesday.
The forecast comes as Russia is competing with Canada, Denmark, Norway and the United States to grab a chunk of the huge energy resources in the Arctic, an area growing more accessible due to global warming melting the ice.
The government agency also said the area could contain 1,670 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas...."
July 16 2008 ~Arctic exploration "The chip in the Play- station 3 is equivalent to what was in a super computer five years ago.."
-
The FT reports that no one knows the extent of US oil and natural gas reserves in the offshore and Arctic areas that are still off-limits to drilling. The technology used in the 1980s super computers to make surveys is out of date but the oil and gas industry is not going to use expensive new technology to study protected areas unless they are open to production. FT
- "It costs a lot of money to take a look," Mr McClure said. "Nobody wants to take a look unless you could get a return."
....
With oil prices rising sharply, polls show most Americans want Congress to lift the offshore ban if it would help reduce prices at the pump. John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, advocates scrapping the ban while Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, opposes it, saying any extra oil and gas produced would take years to develop and further encourage fossil fuel use...."
July 15 2008 ~ First report from the House of Commons All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil
- pdf file "...the following recommendations are made:
- Support and fund a Working Group on energy security and international development to undertake contingency planning on the impact of Peak Oil in developing countries, and humanitarian response capacity
- Make local energy security a donor funding criteria to encourage organisations to adopt appropriate technologies and designs
- Initiate wider dialogue and action planning within the UN and other leading donors on questions of energy security
- Fund research and training that builds capacity in local food and energy security that is independent from fossil fuel imports - disseminated across the humanitarian and development sector.
A shift from an industrialised agriculture system to one based on ecologically sound principles and free from petro-chemical inputs is essential. Similarly, energy efficient dwellings that have minimal environmental impact are necessary.
Donors and humanitarian and development agencies are encouraged to assess their position regarding energy and food security and how they may engage in the transition to a low carbon future.
We live in an era of supreme comfort and technology - on an unmatched pinnacle of energy consumption and resource use. Looking forward, we can either plan an orderly energy descent strategy or we can refuse to accept that the era of cheap energy is drawing to a close and continue business as usual. Either way, energy policies and funding choices made now will have lasting consequences for future generations Read in full
July 15 2008 ~ Bush lifts oil exploration ban
-
FT "George W. Bush lifted an executive order banning oil exploration in US waters on Monday, ratcheting up pressure on Congress to give its consent to ending the 28-year moratorium on offshore drilling.
... .
The White House estimates that about 18bn barrels of oil exist in the 80 per cent of US coastal waters that are off-limits to drilling - enough to match current US production for 10 years.
Opponents say lifting the ban would threaten thousands of miles of coastline with oil spills and ugly infrastructure.
But Mr Bush argues that modern technology would allow drilling to take place without inflicting damage on the environment...."
Monday July 14 2008 ~ "unrepentant junkies, howling for cheap petrol" - funding "a renewed mass terror"
- Johann Hari, in a deeply shocking piece in today's Independent, quotes a woman from the Niger Delta
- "I'd like people all over the world to realise there's a segment of humanity suffering as a result of oil production - ordinary men, women, children. They should think about them and not think simply of energy. Think of us as people. That's more important than anything."
- "... two possible responses now. The first is to meet Mend (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta)and the Delta's demands: let the people have a fair share of their own oil profits. The second is to violently suppress the population with a renewed mass terror. Enter Gordon Brown. Last week, he offered Britain's help to achieve the second option. He offered British troops to "train" Nigeria's "security forces" so they can "restore order" and get the oil flowing fast again. ....He is reacting to pressure from you..."
July 10 2008 ~ "Oil prices rose on Wednesday after long-range missile tests by Iran stoked fears of conflict in the region."
- FT
"Iran said the missiles could reach Israel or US bases in the region.... Iran is the world's fourth-biggest oil producer and is next to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for world oil supply.
...
Worries that Israel might strike nuclear facilities in Iran helped oil surge above $145 a barrel last week.
Iranian officials said that, if attacked, they would impose controls on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, used by 40 per cent of the world's seaborne oil trade.
The US Navy has vowed to block any Iranian effort to shut the Strait..."
July 9 2008 ~ New York contract struck a record high of 145.85 dollars and Brent hit an all-time peak of 146.69 dollars last Thursday.
-
"SINGAPORE (AFP) - Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Tuesday while leaders of the world's rich industrial nations warned of the dangers of soaring oil prices and called for an increase in oil production.
New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for August delivery, was 91 cents higher at 142.28 dollars a barrel after slumping 3.92 dollars to close at 141.37 dollars on Monday at the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent North Sea crude for August was 1.09 dollars higher at 142.96 dollars from a drop of 2.55 dollars to 141.87 dollars a barrel Monday in London.
"It seems to me like oil traders are looking with some interest at the headlines coming out of the G8 meeting," said Dave Ernsberger, Asia director of global energy information provider Platts in Singapore.
The New York contract struck a record high of 145.85 dollars and Brent hit an all-time peak of 146.69 dollars last Thursday..."
July 1 2008 ~ Crude oil sets a record high of $143.67 a barrel
-
FT "....The latest surge in oil, to a record $143.67 a barrel and up 49 per cent this year, came as inflation rose to a 16-year high of 4 per cent in Europe....Neil Mellor, currency strategist at The Bank of New York Mellon, said: "The risks of stagflation have simply exacerbated the inherent problems of a one-glove-fits-all monetary policy..."
July 1 2008 ~ "Saudi Arabia claims between 1.5 million and 2.0 million barrels per day of spare oil production capacity..."
- (Energy Bulletin) "...There has been no outside agency auditing its statements for accuracy, so we do not know if its spare production estimate is accurate. Also, we don't know what type of oil is represented by this spare capacity. If the only crude available is very heavy, sour crude for which there is little refining capacity, the extra capacity may not be very helpful.
Saudi Arabia called a producer-consumer summit meeting on Sunday, June 22 to discuss how to stabilize prices. Saudi Arabia announced at that meeting that it will raise production by 200,000 barrels a day, apparently to 9.7 million barrels a day. At this level, crude oil production will be slightly over 2005 production of 9.55 barrels a day, but still below its 1980-81 level of production.
An increase of 200,000 barrels a day is quite small--about 0.2% of world production, so it is not clear it will make much of a difference. If the oil is very difficult to refine, this could limit the benefit further...."
June 27 2008 ~ Oil: The final warning New Scientist
- Extract:
"...Expensive fuel at the pumps is just the start. ....
the oil market so fragile that a few well-placed explosives, an energy-sapping cold winter or an unusually intense hurricane season could send shock waves across the globe. Without oil everything stops..... "Oil has shaped our civilisation. Without crude oil you'd have no cars, no shipping, no planes," says Gideon Samid, head of the Innovation Appraisal Group (IAG) at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio.
..... sabotage to oil pipelines .... groups hostile to the US and its allies were becoming increasingly expert at mounting these attacks.
...accidents can cause serious disruption. Last year, ....an explosion in Minnesota shut down part of the 5000-kilometre Enbridge pipeline.... single incident halted one-fifth of US oil imports for days.
.. a live role-play exercise. .. ... how reliant the global oil market is on Saudi Arabia's ability to ramp up production on demand. .... Saudi Arabia's recent reluctance to increase production and the ensuing price rises in today's real-life oil market ..... we will have to start making serious attempts to wean ourselves off oil, and fast.... "It's hardly conceivable that the world could function without oil," says Didier Houssin, director of oil markets and emergency preparedness at the IEA.
Finding a replacement fuel for transport is the biggest challenge. ... "These aren't insurmountable problems, but they suggest the transition has some formidable challenges..."
June 27 2008 ~ "...Saudi Arabia has been unable to convince that it holds sufficient swing production to offset disruption in supply from elsewhere."
- ODAC newsletter
"....The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) later in the week that non-OPEC production is falling, but that it estimates an increased global demand for fuel of 50% by 2030 and much of that in transport fuel, is chilling. Even if such production were remotely possible the consequences for the environment would be catastrophic.
Clearly the EIA does now see limits to the potential for growth in Saudi output and has reduced its forecast, but head of the organization Guy Caruso is optimistic about Russia. This is not an optimism shared by ODAC trustee David Strahan in his piece on the state of Russian oil and the BP TNK row...."
June 27 2008 ~ Natural gas is in vast supply around the world but oil is not. Crude oil production in most of the producing countries in the world is in decline.
-
Energy Bulletin Peter McKenzie-Brown, Oilsands Review (via Language Matters)
"......All OPEC can now do is raise prices by cutting production. They cannot lower prices by increasing production because they don't have the capacity. We are in a very pure free market situation, with prices being set by supply and demand. When I look at that dynamic, I have stopped worrying about the demand side. No matter how much the US goes into recession, for any period that is important to any of us, any decline in consumption there will be offset by increased demand elsewhere - in China and India, but also in developing countries that produce their own crude oil.....You can assume that out of global production of 87 million a day, productivity will come off by 5-10 percent every year, so you have to replace that production each year before you can even begin to satisfy global demand growth. So what we are seeing is the demise of the commodity, since we are never really going to be able to meet the demand. Prices will be volatile, but the trend in my view is that prices will continue to climb. The demand will be fully there regardless of anything that happens to the US economy. The decline is real and cannot be arrested..." Marcel Coutu of Syncrude (oil sands)
June 27 2008 ~ oil prices jumped above $140 a barrel for the first time.
-
FT "...Investors' fears of prolonged financial turmoil deepened on Thursday as blue-chip downgrades sent European and US shares into a tailspin and oil prices jumped above $140 a barrel for the first time.
The sell-off underlined the markets' gloomy view of the financial sector amid predictions that banks and brokerages would suffer more large writedowns and be forced to cut dividends and raise capital again. Concerns over the health of the financial sector were underscored on Thursday by news that the US Federal Reserve was considering relaxing rules governing investments into banks by private equity firms to encourage capital-raising..."
June 21 2008 ~ ".....On Friday, the Prime Minister was warned by a leading academic that failure to find an eye-catching initiative for what Brown has called "the biggest problem facing the world" could make the situation worse..."
- Telegraph "..
Dr Bassam Fattouh, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said the chances of finding a suitable solution to rocketing prices was limited because the Opec cartel of producers, western oil companies and ministers in consuming countries have conflicting views on what has caused this year's 40 per cent rise in crude oil.
The summit, which will be attended by Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, and Jeroen van der Veer of Shell, was called by Saudi Arabia after oil hit $140 per barrel. ..."
June 19 2008 ~ "We are in uncharted territory. The oil price has risen for six years in a row, the longest such period in history, and oil has never been as expensive as it is now."
- Independent "
....That must have a profound effect on both supply and demand. As far as supply is concerned, the view of the western oil companies, including BP, is that this is a signal for more investment in improving the extraction rates from existing fuels and finding new ones. BP has the best record for finding oil of any company in the world, so its perspective on this deserves to be taken seriously. Nevertheless, the harsh fact remains that the world's largest single oil field, the giant Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, was discovered back in 1948. Nothing as big has been found since.
This leads into a discussion about "peak oil"..."
June 18 2008 ~ OPEC officials rule out oil output increase ahead of crisis meeting
- www.monstersandcritics.com Doha - An increase in oil output by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is not needed as the current supply level exceeds demand and spiralling prices are mainly caused by speculators, OPEC officials told Deutsche Presse- Agentur dpa.
...
..view is shared by many OPEC officials, which dampens optimism about the outcome of a crisis meeting to be held in the Saudi port of Jeddah on Sunday between oil producers and consumers.
.... resistance by other OPEC members to any output increase makes the Saudi task to defuse the international oil crisis harder.
......
Consumption levels are dropping across the world and economic growth is also slowing down, argues Salman, in support of keeping production at current levels.
........
Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines Shakib Khalil told dpa from Algiers that his country and OPEC would not increase oil output as current supply levels exceed market demand by 500,000 barrels per day. ....
The fuel consumption tax in consumer countries is also to blame for high prices along with the desire by oil multinationals and the US to keep prices high since low prices would lead to closure of many oilfields in Texas, Mabtul said."
June 16 2008 ~ US light crude climbed as high as $139.89 a barrel...
- ...as the dollar retreated from a one-month high against the euro following the release of robust eurozone inflation data and a weak report on manufacturing activity in the New York area. Oil subsequently lost ground and fell 25 cents lower at $134.61 a barrel.
Investors largely shrugged off expectations that Saudi Arabia would announce a rise in output at a meeting of oil producers and consumers this weekend...." FT
June 9 2008 ~ the tone of this year's meeting as "fundamentally different" from previous occasions.
- The Times "... Energy ministers from the Group of Eight (G8) industrialised nations, joined by their counterparts from China, India and South Korea, representing 65 per cent of global energy demand, described the tone of this year's meeting as "fundamentally different" from previous occasions. Instead of presenting its usual united but ineffectual demand for increased oil production to Opec with the aim of reducing prices, discussions focused on how best to curb demand.
-
"If we leave this situation as it is, it could lead to a recession of the world economy," Akira Amari, the Japanese Energy Minister and host of the meeting, said. That meant, he added, that energy security, including the stability of the oil market, had become one of the top priorities for every country.
June 9 2008 ~ "..the world seems to be entering a grim new age of scarcity. ."
- The Times
".... at what point does the crude drama become a crisis? Just where is the tipping point?
Yet it is not just oil. Food and water, the most basic necessities of life so long taken for granted in the developed world, have thrust themselves on to the conference tables of the West's leaders and policymakers.
Food - its short supply in the face of rapidly rising demand and its escalating cost - is suddenly a dominant theme in the global conversation. Last week, ministers and officials from around the world met in Rome to confront a looming world crisis after the era of cheap and plentiful food was effectively declared over in last month's joint report from the United Nations and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. ...
. Even water is the subject of a torrent of concern. Last week a panel of leading global experts convened by Goldman Sachs in London to confront the "Top Five Risks" to global prosperity sounded the alert that catastrophic water shortages could prove an even bigger danger to the human race than depletion of energy supply and deficient food supplies.
.... We seem, all of a sudden, to have hit a watershed. From a rosy, optimistic era of seemingly limitless potential and boundless appetites, the world seems to be entering a grim new age of scarcity. .... Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), told a conference in Barcelona last week: "From a world of seemingly unlimited resources, mankind is gradually accustoming itself to the Earth as a limited, crowded and finite space, with limited resources for extraction and a narrowing capacity for waste disposal of pollution." Mr Trichet argued that the economics of this new world were "increasingly pushing at the boundaries of development" and required new thinking. Coming from a central bank governor, these are pretty remarkable comments.....the global struggle for finite resources that will shape world events as never before. ... As Mr Trichet hinted, we are only now beginning to glimpse the trials that lie ahead, but as they become clearer, the premium on policymakers taking tough and wise decisions will rise as sharply as the prices of resources. We must hope that our leaders can grasp these challenges before we all run out of road."
June 9 2008 ~ Iran's Opec representative, told the state broadcaster that he expected oil to reach $150 a barrel by the end of the summer.
- Times "...Record surges in crude prices have propelled the world into an era in which oil may never be cheap again and energy security will become the foremost concern of governments everywhere, the G8 heard yesterday.
With oil hovering just below $140 a barrel, an unprecedented gathering of the world's most voracious energy consumers ended in Japan by expressing concerns about prices. It also tacitly admitted that the old rules of energy markets must be torn up if the world was to avoid a crisis.
As the meeting came to close, in Tehran a big supplier said that prices would move higher yet. Mohammad Ali Khatabi, Iran's Opec representative, told the state broadcaster that he expected oil to reach $150 a barrel by the end of the summer. .."
June 7 2008 ~ above $138 a barrel.
- New York Times "The rise in oil prices turned into a stampede on Friday with futures jumping a staggering $11 a barrel to set a record above $138 a barrel. The unprecedented surge came as the dollar fell sharply against the euro and a senior Israeli politician once again raised the possibility of an attack against Iran...The latest jump came as the dollar lost more than 1 percent against the euro amid bleak economic news that fanned recession fears...."
June 6 2008 ~ " Oil prices soar to new highs ($138 and counting) as brokerage firm Morgan Stanley predicts that oil will hit $150 a barrel by July 4th..."
- Huffington Post "...Needless to say, stocks are getting clobbered (with the exception of ExxonMobil).
In case you haven't been watching CNBC lately, there's a Great Oil Debate going on. On one side is the "Peak Oil" crowd, who believe that the world has now reached its maximum daily oil output and that increasing demand--which is already outpacing supply--will now drive oil prices into the stratosphere.
On the other side is the "Evil Speculator" crowd, which argues that big energy traders are "gaming" the energy markets and adding at least a $30-$40 speculation premium to each barrel.
Who's right? The truth is no one knows (and anyone who confidently asserts that they do is fooling themselves). Part of the problem is that no one knows exactly how much oil the world is producing, or what the world's actual daily consumption is. What's more, no one knows what the "intrinsic" value is of a barrel of oil....."
June 6 2008 ~ "... supply and demand as a far bigger factor..."
- Washington Post "... Even as record oil prices translate into staggering increases at the pump, some regulators, including Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., say investors are not to blame. These officials cite supply and demand as a far bigger factor. .."
May 25 2008 ~ "At nearly 86 million barrels a day, global oil production has stagnated since 2005, despite soaring demand, suggesting production already has reached the geological limit of "peak oil"..."
- Independent (Geoffrey Lean)
"....Recession in the West may not provide price relief, because economic demand is increasing in countries such as China, Russia and members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries - where heavy subsidies cushion consumers against rising prices.
The future could unfold in a number of ways.
An oil price collapse could result from fuel subsidies being scrapped. Cost pressures have forced Malaysia, Indonesia (which has given notice of quitting OPEC, having become a net oil importer) and Taiwan to cut them, but China is hardly strapped for cash. The net oil exporters of OPEC are under no pressure to abolish subsidies; as the oil price rises, they get richer.....After 50 years of growth the oil age has begun its retreat to the end. At peak oil - the point where production starts to decline - the resource on which all modern economies depend gets scarcer and more expensive. And the consequences are potentially devastating...."
May 23 2008 ~ Chris Skrebowski on PM programme says 'We're into a land without maps here'
- Listen to yesterday's PM interview with Chris Skrebowski, editor of UK Petroleum Review
-
(Extracts)
"Q: What do you say to the idea that some people have floated that part of the reason for the surging price in oil the fear ... that peak oil has been reached?
Skrebowski: I think that's an element in it. My own view is that this is not what we might call "pure peak oil." The peak we've reached at the moment is that we've in effect run out of [increased production of] the light, cheap and low-sulphur oil ... because the light oils make the maximum yield of the light products we want, they are the most desirable for refiners. ... The products we want - the diesel and the jet kerosene - are under great pressure and those are most easily made from the light crudes.... This, if you like, is what I would describe as the "foothills of peak oil." This is the first peak that we've achieved. ... in light, low-sulphur crude. The next peak will be when the producer countries' exports start falling. Because their growth rates are differentially much higher than those in the West. So in effect they are pre-empting more and more of their own oil for their own use, so then we will get another upward kick to the price when that starts to come in.Finally then we will get the peak oil where we simply cannot produce any more of any grade, any quality, anywhere. And that will give the final kick-up.
Q: When do you think kicks 2 and 3 will kick in?
Skrebowski: Probably around 2011. It could get pushed out to 2013 if everything goes perfectly. ... in practical planning terms almost tomorrow.
Q: Do you think we have any idea? I mean the outcry over the price of oil right now is such that people are hurting, they're feeling it. Do you think we've got any idea about what might be around the corner?
Skrebowski:The short answer, I think: no. I really think we're into a land without maps here. We don't have any real historical precedent for this. We don't quite understand how to deal with it or how to cope with it."
May 22 2008 ~ Oil prices exceed $135 a barrel for the first time
-
Foxnews
- "....
With gas and oil prices setting new records nearly every day, analysts have begun to wonder what might stop prices from rising. ....
Investment bank Goldman Sachs last week revised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2008 from $107 to $141 a barrel. But some analysts saw the new target becoming a reality much sooner......"
For years the IEA has predicted that supplies of crude and other liquid fuels will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day currently. The agency is now concerned that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to surpass 100 million barrels a day in production over the next two decades.
May 22 2008 ~ concerns over future oil supplies are fast moving into the mainstream .....
- FT
"....Politicians have expressed concern that speculators are forcing prices higher and Joseph Lieberman, the influential senator, said he was considering legislation to limit big institutional investors in commodities markets.
Some energy executives have warned that geopolitical supply constraints will mean production will not be able to match demand as early as 2012 to 2015.
This comes as demand, especially from China, is set to continue to grow, while that of the US slows. Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank, said: "The price is going to go up until governments that subsidise oil consumption in Asia and the Middle East can no longer afford it."
So far China is doing the opposite, having recently retrenched subsidies. Analysts say Chinese demand could surge further as the country faces shortages of coal and hydropower.
Nervousness about Chinese energy demand was exacerbated on Tuesday when officials said 32 power plants had been forced to close because of coal shortages.
PetroChina and Sinopec, the two biggest domestic oil groups, also have diverted fuel supplies to the quake-hit Sichuan region. ..."
May 19 2008 ~ "Don't expect high prices and shortages of petrol to improve in the short term"
-
Analysis in the Scotsman by George Kerevan
"How close are we to "peak oil".......some predict as early as 2012
- " the International Energy Agency predicts oil demand will double between now and 2030 .....
One source will be in small oil fields of the kind being hunted by Scottish companies such as Cairn Energy. Such fields are expensive to find and costly to tap due to the huge infrastructure required. The fact that oil has shot up to $128 (£65) a barrel - the highest ever even taking account of inflation - might make this possible.
But it is unlikely there will be a serious increase in global output for around a decade given the time it takes to build pipelines and tanker terminals. So expect high petrol prices (and shortages) to remain for the near term. Even then, this is likely to be the last surge in oil output and we will reach peak oil by 2030, if not before.
Another source of oil lies in the vast tar sands of Canada. But extracting useable oil from tar involves a vastly expensive industrial process which also results in big emissions.
It is possible to squeeze extra oil from older fields such as the North Sea. This is done by pumping water (or ) into the wells to blow out more oil. But this destroys the sponge-like membranes which contain the petroleum, meaning you get more oil out in the short term but less in the longer term.
Gordon Brown wants Opec to pump more oil to bring down prices. But experts suspect that the size of Opec reserves (80 years at current consumption) have been greatly exaggerated by local politicians. If so, peak oil could be here sooner than we think - some predict as early as 2012.
May 16 2008 ~Oil prices have hit a record high approaching $128 a barrel
- on speculation that China will need to import more fuel, stretching supplies.
With more energy needed to rebuild areas devastated by the earthquake this week, US light sweet crude hit $127.82 a barrel before falling to $126.29. .....As the oil price rose, pressure from congress prompted the Bush administration to decide to cease renewing a critical governmental oil stockpile on Friday, in order to boost supplies.
The move by the US Energy Department follows legislation stipulating that emergency stocks should not be replenished until the price of crude oilis less than $75 per barrel.
..". BBC
May 9 2008 ~ Are we witnessing the death of ExxonMobil?
- ..is the question asked by Jim Jubak at MoneyCentral MSN
He says that it may be a strange question to ask with oil above $120 a barrel and ExxonMobil reporting $11 billion in first-quarter profits but "the warning signs were pasted all over the company's May 1 earnings report." and continues "...Part of the problem is one that ExxonMobil shares with every other Western oil company: access to new places to drill. In the 1970s, Western oil companies controlled about 70% of all the world's proven and probable reserves. The rest belonged to the national oil companies of oil-producing countries.
Today, though, the positions of the Western and national oil companies are reversed. Now the national oil companies control about 80% of the world's proven and probable reserves, and they're keeping the most promising geologies for themselves."
May 9 ~ Oil over $126, new peak for 5th straight day
- Forbes
LONDON, May 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices leapt to a new peak of more than $126 a barrel on Friday, hitting a record for the fifth straight session, in a market given an additional spur by tight supplies of diesel.
U.S. crude for June delivery rose $1.87 to $125.56 by 1335 GMT, off a record high of $126.20 a barrel. London Brent crude rose $2.81 to $125.65 per barrel.
....
Gas oil futures, the benchmark for European heating oil and diesel contract, surged to a new record high on Friday, driven by worries about tight global diesel supplies.
.....
"If the price keeps going up, OPEC may consult on an increase in production before it meets in September. In my view, any increase would have to be more than 500,000 barrels per day to have an impact on the price," the source told Reuters.
May 7 2008 ~ Gordon Brown and George Bush "whistling in the wind by blaming OPEC for the latest price surge. The cartel no longer has the capacity to crank up production even if it wanted to do so"
-
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
in the Telegraph writes that
according to a "controversial report" by Goldman Sachs, oil prices "threaten to hit $200 a barrel in a final "super-spike" over coming months because production simply cannot keep pace with demand from China and the Middle East.
Arjun Murti, the Goldman Sachs' energy strategist is quoted in the article, saying that a chronic lack of supply would lead to a "dramatic and continuous rise in oil prices", followed at some point by a sharp fall in oil demand "as consumers retrench".
-
"US crude prices hit a fresh high of $122.35 a barrel yesterday as rebel attacks on Shell installations in Nigeria and tensions in northern Iraq continued to strain markets already caught in a crunch.....
This week's jump in prices comes despite the partial recovery of the dollar against the euro, suggesting that alleged investor appetite for oil as a sort of "anti-dollar" is no longer driving the market - if it ever was...."
May 2 2008 ~Exxon oil production struggles for growth
- FT "...ExxonMobil , long regarded by its peers and investors as the most successful interational oil company, is beginning to show signs of weakness, revealing on Thursday that it is struggling to increase oil production and to squeeze profit out of its refining business.
The world's biggest energy group announced a first-quarter record profit of $10.9bn but its oil production fell almost 10 per cent in the first three months of the year and refining profits slumped..."
May 1 2008 ~ Government's plans to meet its renewable energy targets through offshore wind stymied by Shell.
- Royal Dutch Shell has pulled out of the scheme. Full story in the FT "The London Array was to be the world's biggest offshore wind farm, with 341 turbines in the Thames Estuary.
Shell said on Wednesday it was seeking to sell its stake, while increasing its investment in onshore wind farms in the US...."
The FT also reported last month on the defiant words of Shell's chief executive, Jeroen van der Veer, when he implied that Shell had 55 years of oil reserves. But this included investments that are far from being in traditional, easy-to-access fields and Shell, like all the others, is moving increasingly into difficult, expensive and carbon-intensive unconventional fuels, such as Canada's oil sands. Shell is also the world's largest distributor of biofuels. Although Mr van der Veer asserts that "what is unconventional today will be conventional tomorrow " extraction of oil from food crops is a disaster while extraction from oil sands is in itself highly energy intensive and can be fatal to wildlife. Yesterday, hundreds of ducks were found dead or dying in a toxic tailings pond belonging to oilsands giant Syncrude Canada Ltd. Newsnet was told that it's the worst such incident in the history of northern Alberta's oilsands.
Wednesday 23 April 2008 ~ Oil is now within striking distance of $120 a barrel. Grains prices still rising
- The FT paints a grim picture today:
"Chinese demand for oil is accelerating ahead of the Olympics with crude oil imports up by almost a quarter to 4.07m barrels a day in March, compared with the same month last year.
...
In Nigeria, militants attacked two Shell pipelines on Monday as violence in the Niger Delta escalated...
Opec ministers have continued to blame rising oil prices on speculators and the weakness in the dollar... But in an effort to reassure the market, Opec's secretary general highlighted the cartel's plans to expand capacity. ...
However, Opec has no plans to meet before September, suggesting little prospect of any relief on supplies before then.
Russia : "Very mature fields, an exploding cost base, a heavy tax burden, infrastructure constraints and market unfriendly policies have led to stagnation in oil exploration and production." ...
In agricultural markets, corn prices rose on concerns at the slow pace of US corn planting. Only 4.1 per cent of this year's crop has been sown, compared with about 22 per cent normally at this time of year.... senior commodity analyst at Ag Resource, warned that more poor weather could affect germination rates and lower yields below the USDA's current projections. .. Strength in grain prices and concerns about the impact of export restrictions on tight global supplies pushed rice prices higher ..."
April 17 2008 ~ Nigeria's oil output ‘could fall by a third'
- FT "...an internal memo from the Shell Petroleum Development Company late last year that said funding problems could put the existence of the company's joint venture with the Nigerian government at risk. The fresh warning could add to supply fears that have pushed oil prices to fresh records this week and saw prices reach a record $115.45 a barrel on Thursday.
Traders are already worried about Russia's oil production, considered critical to keep up with Asian demand, after warnings from industry executives that production there has peaked..."
April 16 2008 ~ "a 50-50 chance we'll reach $125 by Labour Day"
- World oil prices leaped to an all-time high above $114 US per barrel in after-hours trading Tuesday, but analysts disagreed on whether the highly sought-after commodity will continue its amazing run through 2008.
Two internationally respected energy market experts in Calgary for an oil conference this week agreed oil could continue to rise in the short-term, but the threatened recession in the United States makes the long-term picture bleak. Calgary analyst Peter Linder, president of DeltaOne Capital Partners Corp., said the oil rally will shrug off U.S. economic problems. "That's what everybody's looking at, but there's a world outside the U.S.," he said.
"I think there's a 50-50 chance we'll reach $125 by Labour Day," Linder predicted.
He said oil prices above $100 US will be the norm for the next 10 to 20 years....
West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery closed up $2.03, or 1.82 per cent, at $113.79 US on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was driven by a combination of supply issues, rising diesel demand in China and persistent dollar weakness. Crude futures later rose to a record high of $114.08 after settlement. Monday's close was also a record.
The average close so far this year is over $102 US per barrel...." Calgary Herald
April 16 ~ (Reuters) - A giant Brazilian oil reserve estimate that came out this week is overblown, but a larger area encompassing the find could indeed contain 33 billion barrels
- Credit Suisse energy analysts said on Wednesday.
The analysts stressed they remain bullish on the country's oil prospects in the so-called subsalt cluster and consider feasible the reserve estimate in a structure known as Sugar Loaf, including blocks that are still not under concession...."We are bullish on the Brazilian pre-salt play, but we're also trying to keep this story grounded in reality," analyst Mark Flannery told a conference call after last week's visit by a team from Credit Suisse Global Energy to Brazil..." Reuters
April 15 2008 ~ "the period of intense oil production [growth] is over".
- Even today's story of a possible big oil discovery in Brazil may not delay the ending of cheap oil by very much. The Carioca field ( BM-S-9) is located beneath a layer of salt in water more than 2,000 meters deep. No official information is available yet to confirm the guess that there might be 33 billion barrels of oil there - and the cost of extracting it will be very much higher than in conventional oil wells. Extracting and turning the oil into usable form will also be extremely energy-intensive.
Only recently has the physical technology even existed to drill in water that deep. It will be a difficult and expensive enterprise. However, it may perhaps alter the policies of the country most desperate to secure supplies.
Russia, until recently considered the most promising oil region outside the Middle East is now admitting stagnation and that the period of intense oil production is over. The FT today reports that the vice-president of Lukoil has compared Russia with the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production is declining dramatically - and even the Russian government has admitted that production growth has stagnated.
The thirst of governments for cheap energy and the mad dash for bio-fuel is, of course, what ultimately lies behind the food riots now spreading across the planet. There are now only 8 to 12 weeks of cereal stocks left in the world.
April 11 2008 ~ " because extraction methods have become more efficient - "decline rates" are also higher in major fields.
- IMF World Economic Outlook (pdf - p55 and 56) "... The International Energy Agency suggests that almost two-thirds of the additional gross capacity needed over the next eight years will be required just to replace declines in output from existing fields. ..."
Second, oil will increasingly come from unconventional sources, because output has declined from peak levels at conventional fields in many countries, and the size of oil fields is getting smaller on average. ...."
(As for these "unconventional sources", Matthew Simmons says, "The energy that is consumed to get oil out of the oil sands of Canada - in massive amounts of potable water and natural gas - is so vast you are really turning gold into lead. What you get out is a very low quality amount of oil that has to be upgraded and diluted with high quality oil to get synthetic crude. What I can't figure out is why the executives of these oil companies don't understand that." source)
April 10 2008 ~ Oil hits record high after US inventories
- The Finincial Times last night:
"Oil prices jumped to above $112 a barrel on Wednesday, a fresh record high that threatens to stoke inflation further as the Federal Reserve faces pressure to cut interest rates again to counter the risk of recession.
The increase came after the US Department of Energy said there was an unexpected drop in oil inventories last week. Strong demand in China and the rest of Asia, after a colder than average winter, also helped to boost prices, traders said. ....
US petrol reserves have shrunk for four successive weeks and this is leading to concerns about supplies.....
The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that crude oil prices would remain at about $95 on average this year and the next, in spite of the slowdown in the world economy.
Coal prices are also rising, with utilities in Asia this week accepting a 100 per cent rise in the annual price they pay for coal supplies. Steelmakers have agreed to pay up to 240 per cent more for coking coal."
March 30 2008 ~ "Oil remains at the heart of the game and, if anything, it is even more important than before."
- Observer "With their complex logistics and heavy reliance on air power, high-tech armies are extremely energy-intensive. According to a Pentagon report, the amount of petroleum needed for each soldier each day increased four times between the Second World War and the Gulf War and quadrupled again when the US invaded Iraq. Recent estimates suggest the amount used per soldier has jumped again in the five years since the invasion.
Whereas Western countries dominated the last round of the Great Game, this time they rely on increasingly self-assertive producer countries. Mr Putin's well-honed contempt for world opinion might grate on European ears, but Europe is heavily dependent on his energy. Hugo Chávez might be an object of hate for George W Bush, but Venezuela still supplies around 10 per cent of America's imported oil. President Ahmadinejad is seen by some as the devil incarnate, but with oil at more than a $100 a barrel, any Western attempt to topple him would be horrendously risky. ..."
March 27 2008 ~Oil prices went above $108 a barrel after one of Iraq's main export pipelines was blown up.
- The BBC reports that a company official said damage would cut Basra's exports by a third, adding to supply fears and increasing concern about stability in the region.
...
The price of New York light sweet crude oil closed at $107.58 dollars per barrel having hit $108.22 dollars.
March 27 2008 ~ "Energy shortages are now so frequent across the world there is a new web site, www.energyshortage.org, devoted to keeping track of them all."
- (FCNP) There are currently 96 different places in the world that have reported some form of energy shortages in recent months. These range from large areas of China, through the sub continent to small South Pacific islands such as Saipan and the Marianas that have not been heard from much since World War II.
Nearly every government in the world has announced plans for more electricity production. Most would like nuclear power plants that would, in theory, free them from the vagaries of hydro power and the steadily increasing prices of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, most of these plans have no foundation in reality, for unless the country is a wealthy one, the rapidly increasing prices of major projects such as oil refineries and power plants, particularly of the nuclear variety, are going to become prohibitively costly very soon. As for nuclear power stations, it is almost certain those few countries that have the capability to design and build them are going to be preoccupied for decades with building them for their domestic market or the ultra-rich oil exporters...."
March18 2008 ~ "Oil prices rose to consecutive record high levels in recent weeks, driven by the US currency's persistent slump against the euro..."
- "Oil prices advanced on Tuesday, in line with rebounding world equity markets, but remained some way off the record high of nearly 112 dollars that was hit the previous day....Brent North Sea crude for May was up 1.54 dollars to 103.29 dollars. It struck an all-time peak of 107.97 on Monday....analysts at energy consultancy John Hall Associates.
- "The Federal Reserve is expected to announce their rate decision later today, with a 0.75-1.0 percent cut widely anticipated. This would weaken the dollar and could potentially push oil prices back up, though the US economy remains weak."
March15 2008 ~ Oil hits record $US111, US dollar dives
- /www.news.com.au "....
"Energy markets continue to enjoy their status as an alternative 'safe haven' for those fleeing the ravaged bond and stock markets,'' said MF Global analyst Ed Meir.
"With the sinking US dollar providing support, the path of least resistance seems to be higher still.''
Oil prices have rocketed by 90 per cent over the past year as the market was driven by tight supplies, geopolitical concerns in key producer nations and fierce demand for crude from China and India."
March15 2008 ~ Oil and gold hit new highs.
- Events are moving faster and faster. Equity markets and the dollar are dropping. Oil, gas, diesel and commodities are surging as the investment of last resort. The
Independent comments:
".....Neil MacKinnon, chief economist at the ECU hedge fund, said: "We are facing a potential black hole for all financial markets. This is being labelled as perhaps the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression. While that sounds fairly apocalyptic, I think it is a realistic assessment of what is happening at the moment."
.....
Oil and gold hit new highs. Investors also fled to the comparative safety of US Treasury bonds, pushing shorter-term yields to their lowest since 2003.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Tuesday...."
March 12 2008 ~ "The price of oil soared to a new record level above $110 (£54) a barrel yesterday
- The dollar resumed its slide against other major currencies in New York trading yesterday, amid concerns over the stability of the US banking system, fears that the credit crisis has tipped the economy into recession..." Independent
March 9 2008 ~ Markets rattled by signs of renewed credit crisis
- International Herald Tribune "...pressure mounts on central banks facing what looks like the third wave of a global credit crisis....soaring inflation is tying the hands of central bankers who want to bolster economies by cutting interest rates.
Oil hit a record price near $106 a barrel, while gold, a traditional inflation hedge, rose toward $1,000 an ounce.
Prices of products like cooper, rice, soybeans and palm oil roared to all-time peaks...."
March 6 2008 ~ "Crude oil traded near a record $US104.95 a barrel in New York
- after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to leave output unchanged at a meeting in Vienna and Colombian rebels bombed an oil pipeline in that country on Wednesday, escalating a cross-border dispute between Colombia and Ecuador.
Also, the US Energy Department reported that US crude oil inventories had fallen for the first time in eight weeks." business.theage.com.au
March 4 2008 ~ Gas supplies to Europe could be hit
- FT
"The energy stand-off between Gazprom and Ukraine escalated on Tuesday as officials in Kiev warned that gas supplies to Europe could be hit if the Russian side went ahead with threats to cut shipments to Ukraine by more than half.
Ukraine's state oil and gas company, Naftogaz Ukrainy, accused Gazprom of violating basic "principles" in relations between both countries in threatening to cut shipments further.
The company, which manages a vast pipeline system that supplies Europe with a majority of its Russian gas supplies, said in a statement it could "guarantee undisturbed transit to European consumers only as long as Ukraine's energy security is not threatened." ..."
March 3 2008 ~ Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have blamed factors beyond its control, such as speculation and the weak dollar, for oil's record run.
-
Guardian "I think that the price could go up," Ghanem said. "Everything is volatile, we are in the age of volatility and speculation."
"The physical market is different from the paper market. We are living in kind of virtual oil markets."
Ghanem, who is in Vienna to attend an OPEC meeting on Wednesday, reiterated that he did not expect the group to change its oil output. "At this level of the price, I would think that things will be postponed," he said. "It's not a good time for action. It is a time for watching."
Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation has been signing a spate of deals with foreign energy firms to help develop its oil and gas reserves. The OPEC oil exporter wants to become a major gas producer, and aims to increase production to 3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2010, up from 2.7 bcfd now..."
Feb 26 2008 ~ Oil prices could top $300 per barrel within the next five years: Matthew Simmons
-
www.arabianbusiness.com
"....Matthew Simmons, chairman and founder of specialised energy investment banking firm, Simmons & Company International, said the current highs of $100 per barrel are "cheap". ... he is more concerned about energy shortages than the rising price of oil. ...
He noted that in the UK's capital, London, where typically the price per gallon can reach as much as $9, it hasn't deterred motorists from continuing to use their cars.
...
Simmons said that the peak oil issue is poorly understood and the world's data on production, demand and inventories is inaccurate.
Last week oil reached a new record of $102, closing in on its inflation-adjusted peak, as a slumping dollar on lacklustre US economic data triggered a surge across commodities markets. Opec's president said members would agree not to raise production in part because of fears of a demand slowdown."
March 3 2008 ~ Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have blamed factors beyond its control, such as speculation and the weak dollar, for oil's record run.
-
Guardian "I think that the price could go up," Ghanem said. "Everything is volatile, we are in the age of volatility and speculation."
"The physical market is different from the paper market. We are living in kind of virtual oil markets."
Ghanem, who is in Vienna to attend an OPEC meeting on Wednesday, reiterated that he did not expect the group to change its oil output. "At this level of the price, I would think that things will be postponed," he said. "It's not a good time for action. It is a time for watching."
Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation has been signing a spate of deals with foreign energy firms to help develop its oil and gas reserves. The OPEC oil exporter wants to become a major gas producer, and aims to increase production to 3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2010, up from 2.7 bcfd now..."
Feb 26 2008 ~ Oil prices could top $300 per barrel within the next five years: Matthew Simmons
-
www.arabianbusiness.com
"....Matthew Simmons, chairman and founder of specialised energy investment banking firm, Simmons & Company International, said the current highs of $100 per barrel are "cheap". ... he is more concerned about energy shortages than the rising price of oil. ...
He noted that in the UK's capital, London, where typically the price per gallon can reach as much as $9, it hasn't deterred motorists from continuing to use their cars.
...
Simmons said that the peak oil issue is poorly understood and the world's data on production, demand and inventories is inaccurate.
Last week oil reached a new record of $102, closing in on its inflation-adjusted peak, as a slumping dollar on lacklustre US economic data triggered a surge across commodities markets. Opec's president said members would agree not to raise production in part because of fears of a demand slowdown."
Feb 26 2008 ~"....last week, Jeroen van der Veer, the chief executive of oil major Royal Dutch Shell, released a study that predicted the days of easy-to-reach oil are at an end.
- Gulf News ... prediction that Shell sees "about 50 per cent more demand for energy in the world in the coming 25 years, and a doubling of energy [demand] by 2050" and those sources of energy are going to be increasingly expensive to access.
Jim Buckee, retired president and chief executive of major independent Talisman Energy, echoes van der Veer. "We're there [at peak oil] or close to it," he told Canada's Globe & Mail. "Mexico, the North Sea and possibly Ghawar [in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest conventional oil field] are all in decline. The truth is the world is producing 30 billion-plus barrels of oil a year and is finding less than 10 billion. This is the worry."
February 24 2008 ~ the most crucial energy issues that must be addressed by the new US administration in its first 30 days in office
- Matt Simmons www.chron.com
"......There are no new sources of energy supply that can quickly be brought into use to relieve this pending energy squeeze, but every supply source helps, and no new supply source is too risky or too small. Everything that can safely work and last for more than a two- to four-year time frame needs to be inventoried and developed as soon as possible.
These are the most crucial energy issues that must be addressed by the new administration in its first 30 days in office. Once these efforts are under way, far more comprehensive steps to begin creating a less energy-intensive economy, both here and abroad, can be initiated.
For the past eight administrations and 25 Congresses, America based its entire energy policy on a concept that oil would always be cheap and ever abundant. In such a world, all other energy sources would stay even less expensive than oil. As a result, we wasted three decades to begin addressing these serious issues and spent far too much time and money trying to clean up what was perceived as energy that was too dirty."
Feb 22 2008 ~ "... behaviour must change because nothing can compensate for the rising cost of petroleum." French P.M
- energyresources/message
"...French Prime Minister, Francçois Fillon said that the French should not be told stories. The price of oil will
remain very high because oil is a depleting resource. He said that this was
moreover at the heart of the ‘Grenelle de l'environnement,' a summit on the
environment between employers and unions in October 2007; that behaviour
must change because nothing can compensate for the rising cost of petroleum.
He said that the government was going to freeze public spending for the next
five years.....We have yet to hear such frankness from our governments ..."
20th February 2008 ~ world leaders are steering the world toward an energy disaster characterized by shortages, high energy prices, inflation, civil unrest and famine.
- www.prweb.comThe price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil closed above $100 for the first time on February 19, 2008. "Rising oil prices have been giving a clear signal of pending shortages for over five years now," according to TheOilDrum.com. By ignoring this signal, world leaders are steering the world toward an energy disaster characterized by shortages, high energy prices, inflation, civil unrest and famine.
The $100 a barrel closing price is a sign that times will never be the same again. "The world is entering a new era. In this new era, the supply of energy will dominate the political landscape in a way that is not being recognized by any of the presidential candidates," according to TheOilDrum.com...."
February 18 2008 ~ One of the primary purposes of government is to anticipate future threats and take appropriate risk management measures, so we cannot turn from this challenge …
- www.aph.gov.au The Hon Dr Mike Kelly AM, MP, Member for Eden-Monaro (New South Wales)
First Speech To Austalian Parliament - 13/2/2008
-
"I believe the future of this country will largely be shaped by our response to the challenges posed by two liquids: water and oil. We cannot grow and will find it difficult to sustain our current lifestyle if we do not come up with a major national effort on our water resource management. We must give thought to whether we are selecting the appropriate land usage in tune with our various regions. We should reach out more vigorously to countries like Israel to collaborate on the development of water management and agricultural technology.
With regard to oil, I view the threat posed by the future dependency of this country on overseas and dwindling supplies as a critical strategic vulnerability.
I believe we must follow the lead of the Swedes in taking a proactive approach towards eliminating this substance from our economy. The future oil shocks that we are facing will have the greatest impact on communities like Eden-Monaro and, for their sake, I intend to keep this issue in the forefront of our thinking. One of the primary purposes of government is to anticipate future threats and take appropriate risk management measures, so we cannot turn from this challenge."
February 15 2008 ~ natural gas based fertilizer prices will continue to rise along with the commodity, as more and more competition for gas ensues, further boosting the price of food, and making the heat or eat problem even more acute.…
- Energy Bulletin "........It is hard not to come to the conclusion, then that we in Northern regions face a heating crisis, and probably within a few years. And since we live in a society that practices cost rationing even for the most basic needs, that means that poor people in cold places will be increasingly priced out of heating energy. Or they will be priced out of food, as they futily stop eating in order to try and keep warm.
Meanwhile, natural gas based fertilizer prices will continue to rise along with the commodity, as more and more competition for gas ensues, further boosting the price of food, and making the heat or eat problem even more acute.
And what choices do we have as an alternative? Wood heating could be a decent option in many places, although not in urban centers where particulate emissions costs would be greater than the benefits..."
February 8 2008 ~ Canada's production of natural gas and conventional oil is declining…
- Richard Heinberg on energybulletin.net on the clause in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) states that Canada must continue to supply the same proportion of its oil and gas resources to the US in future years as it does now. "Canada uses lots of oil and gas domestically: 70 percent of Canadians heat their homes with gas, and Canadians drive cars more and further than just about anyone else. The problem is likely to come first with natural gas; as production declines, there will come a point when there isn't enough to fill domestic needs and continue to export (roughly 60 percent of Canada's gas now goes to the US).
That point is not decades in the future, it is fairly imminent.
Then there is the problem of Climate Change. Canada is committed by treaty to reducing domestic emissions of carbon dioxide. But most of Canada's emissions come not from consuming fossil fuels, but producing them - increasingly, from producing synthetic diesel fuel from the tar sands of Alberta. Even if Canadians decide to drive less and turn down their thermostats, those efforts will do little or nothing to change energy production rates (hence emissions rates), because any extra amounts of fuel produced but not used domestically will simply be exported south; in fact, they virtually must be by the terms of NAFTA.
So Canada's energy security and global climate security are both held hostage by a provision within a trade agreement...."
February 8 2008 ~ Australia's first transition town…
- Energy Bulletin
"....Based at a community education centre on the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, SEAC has produced the first Australian Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP) to be embraced by both the community and local government! Having acknowledged the looming effects of peak oil, SEAC has created a community that is leading the way in preparing for our future without the abundant high energy resource our economy relies on.
SEAC's website provides a wealth of information and Wonderful World Media looks forward to bringing you more on the work being done by this amazing group of people.
(28 January 2008)..."
February 8 2008 ~ Making biofuels leads to "excessive land clearing" and releases vast amounts of carbon dioxide
- Independent "Growing crops to make biofuels results in vast amounts of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere and does nothing to stop climate change or global warming, according to the first thorough scientific audit of a biofuel's carbon budget. ....Professor Stephen Polasky of the University of Minnesota, an author of one of the studies published in Science, said that the incentives currently employed to encourage farmers to grow crops for biofuels do not take into account the carbon budget of the crop."
"We don't have the proper incentives in place because landowners are rewarded for producing palm oil and other products but not rewarded for carbon management. This creates incentives for excessive land clearing and can result in large increases in carbon emissions," Professor Polasky said.
February 7 2008 ~ "The key is going to be agriculture"
- Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph today is one of the first mainstream journalists to point out the grim corollary between oil depletion and famine. He quotes Jeff Currie of US investment bank Goldman Sachs:
- "We have never seen this before when commodity prices were already at record highs. Over the next 18 to 36 months we are probably going into crisis mode across the commodity complex.
The key is going to be agriculture. China is terrified of the current situation. It has real physical shortages," he said, referencing China still having memories of starvation in the 1960s seared in its collective mind...."
Meanwhile, DEFRA is increasingly deprived of funding and the UK government is shrugging off its responsibility towards home grown food, farming and food safety. Relying on cheap imports that may become ever scarcer seems unwise.
February 6 2008 ~ recent slump has changed the equation for the cartel
- Guardian " Worries about the outlook for global energy demand growth in the fallout of a U.S. housing crisis and credit crunch have pulled oil back from a record high above $100 a barrel hit in early January.
Oil briefly struck the triple-digit region amid declining inventory levels and robust demand growth from developing economies like China and India -- leading major oil consumer nations to demand more crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
But the recent slump has changed the equation for the cartel, leading some member nations -- notably Iran and Venezuela -- to argue for reduced output when they next meet in March. OPEC decided last week to maintain current output limits, despite calls from consumer nations for more oil to bring energy prices down and take pressure off the economy. Tuesday's oil price declines were tempered by disruptions to oil imports in Texas due to dense sea fog and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after attacks by Turkey on northern Iraq...."
February 5 2008 ~every indication that worldwide petroleum production will begin an inexorable, inevitable decline beginning around 2010
- Richard Heinberg's "museletter" "...during the past three years, global production of crude oil has remained static, despite demand growth - especially from Asian economies. And there is every indication that worldwide petroleum production will begin an inexorable, inevitable decline beginning around 2010. .... in the three years since May 2005, the rate of extraction of conventional crude oil has stalled, while prices have shifted to the $60 to $100 range. Many analysts believe that by 2015 oil production will be declining at an annual rate of over two percent per year and prices may be in the multiple hundreds of dollars per barrel. While more exploration prospects for conventional oil exist, they are mostly in geographically remote or politically sensitive areas; meanwhile, shortages of drilling rigs and trained personnel are adding significantly to delays in bringing new projects on line. Enormous quantities of non-conventional fossil fuels exist that are capable of being turned into synthetic liquid fuels (the bitumen deposits of Alberta, the heavy oil of the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the marlstone or "shale oil" of Wyoming and Colorado); however, the rate at which these substances can be extracted and processed is constrained by physical and economic factors - such as the need for enormous quantities of fresh water and natural gas for processing.
World production of natural gas will likely peak somewhat later than that of oil; however, regional natural gas supply constraints are already appearing, primarily in North America (the most intensive consumer of the resource), as well as Russia and Europe. Because only a small proportion is traded globally in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), this means it may not be possible to avert regional shortages by resorting to seaborne imports...."
January 31st 2008 ~ "The rest of us are going to have to find alternative means of transportation..."
- www.fcnp.com"...Within the next ten years the size, shape, efficiency, fuel and numbers of private automobiles is going to undergo a radical change. The nine million barrels of gasoline we currently use in the U.S. each day simply will not be available in the quantities desired at any price. If a transition to a more abundant fuel source than gasoline and diesel does not take place on a widespread basis before the shortages begin, there will be troubles. It is virtually certain that at some point the government will have to impose rationing that will keep functions vital to our society such as food, water, utilities and public safety functioning. The rest of us are going to have to find alternative means of transportation...U.S. natural gas production has been flat for years and the only way we can keep it that way is by drilling more and more gas wells each year. Our friends in Canada just announced that their natural gas production, read exports to the U.S., is about to start declining...."
January 25th 2008 ~ "World demand for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven years, according to Royal Dutch Shell."
- Times
The oil multinational is predicting that conventional supplies will not keep pace with soaring population growth and the rapid pace of economic development.
Jeroen van der Veer, Shell's chief executive, said in an e-mail to the company's staff this week that output of conventional oil and gas was close to peaking. He wrote: "Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand."
January 25th 2008 ~ "Get thee to the productive side of the economy. Grow something, or learn to make or repair something useful."
- Energy Bulletin (Richard Heinberg)
"It's becoming increasingly clear that 2008 will be a catastrophic year for the US economy, and therefore probably for that of the world as a whole. The reasons boil down to two: continuing and snowballing fallout from the subprime mortgage fiasco (exacerbated by an orgy of debt-leveraging), and record-high, continuously advancing oil prices.......there is at least one upside to all these downers: the collapse of the current debt-and-growth based economy may finally force a redesign of the money system and the "science" of economics. But this will take a while, and it will help if there are good ideas out there being widely discussed and promoted, such as the notions of a steady-state economy or an energy-backed currency.
Meanwhile, if you're interested in finding shelter during the storm, get thee to the productive side of the economy. Grow something, or learn to make or repair something useful."
January 21st 2008 ~ "Peak Oil is about RATE. And RATE is dependent on the SIZE, AGE and QUALITY of the RESERVES. "
- Energy Bulletin "...if the demand is 110 million barrels per day, and the world can only produce 100 million barrels per day, then the price will go up until the demand abates. And if worldwide economic growth is proportional to the rate of growth in energy consumption (as it has been since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution), then if we can't grow energy consumption, we've got a problem with growing the economy!
To make matters worse, after the maximum oil production rate (Peak Oil) is reached, then the rate begins to decline - at least within a few years! (Hirsch's recent work with respect to "plateaus" is not encouraging.) So, post-Peak Oil, the economy not only can't continue to grow, but it must contract - IF economic growth is proportional to growth in energy usage (as it has been in the past)...."
January 17th 2008 ~ "the U.S. economic outlook has worsened"
- Guardian "....Oil fell a dollar on Thursday to below $90 a barrel on fears the U.S. economy will slip into a recession and hurt demand from the world's largest energy consumer.
The slump extends oil's losses to about 10 percent since it hit the record Jan. 3 over $100 a barrel.
U.S. light crude for February delivery CLc1> fell $1.00 to $89.84 a barrel by 1700 GMT. London Brent crude LCOc1> also dropped $1.00 to $88.50 a barrel.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said more interest rate cuts may be necessary and the U.S. economic outlook has worsened.
Separately, a survey showed factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region contracted dramatically in January, reinforcing fears of a recession...."
January 15th 2008 ~ World leaders queasy over record oil prices
-
Reuters
" World leaders are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with oil near $100, saying prices at these heights posed a threat to their already vulnerable economies.
Many analysts say oil prices are likely to stay near current levels, which when adjusted for inflation sparked a deep recession in the 1970s.
In Riyadh, U.S. President George W. Bush complained on Tuesday about "very high" oil prices and promised to raise his concerns with his Saudi host King Abdullah.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday said the real price of oil should be around $70 a barrel, blaming speculators for the extra $30.
Even Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who is normally a price hawk, said he hoped the price of crude oil wouldn't go beyond $100 a barrel but admitted it probably would.
Leaders are worried that high oil prices will push the world economy, already shaken by a credit crisis and a battered dollar, into a recession.
But economists and market experts say the world has changed dramatically in the last 30 years.
"High oil prices will not tip the world into a recession. The economy is more resilient than it was in the 1970s," said Kevin Norrish, analyst at Barclays Capital.
"The industry's dependence on oil is much less now. ...."
January 12th 2008 ~ High oil prices? You ain't seen nothing yet
- Petroleum News today: " .....a recession with a possible reduction in oil price will have no good attributes," he said. "We would be better off facing up to the inevitability of more expensive oil and doing something about it."
....
Simmons has calculated that oil will have to climb above $180 per barrel before price pressures force voluntary conservation.
Evidence from Britain tends to prove Simmons right.
-
"A U.S. gallon of diesel costs $7 in the United Kingdom (most of it due to taxes)," Herrera said. "That is equivalent to about $180 per barrel for oil. There is clear evidence that UK truckers are beginning to revolt at these costs by blocking refineries and other protests. .......
January 9th 2008 ~ the real problems are indeed "below ground"."
Guardian ~ ".....Among policymakers, particularly those running for election, fear of a recession trumps fear of an oil peak, so there is even less incentive to talk about the potential of a peak in oil output. But if recession fails to "cure" high oil prices - and if the world finds itself in the double fix of an economic slowdown and expensive oil - even optimistic leaders may have to confront the possibility that speculators and a weak dollar are not alone in driving oil prices and that the real problems are indeed "below ground"."
January 7th 2008 ~ look beyond the conflicting forecasts and to focus on the consequences of underestimating the severe consequences of the peak oil problem
Energy Bulletin ~
The peak oil debate created two extreme camps:
On the one hand there are those pessimists (mostly geologists) who argue peak oil is already upon us or shortly (generally before 2015) will be. Once the peak is reached, this camp foresees skyrocketing prices leading to economic ruin, social and environmental collapse, massive dislocation and even a dying civilization. Most important advocate of this group is the International Association of the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) promoting the message of imminent depletion, often in crisis tones.
On the other hand there are those optimists (mostly economists and political scientist) who believe that unconventional sources of oil, technological advancement, market forces and increased investment will enable us to produce more oil or invest substitutes and hence meet increasing demand. They expect a smooth shift to new and better energy resources driven by market forces. Most prominent advocates of this group are US Energy Information Agency, International Energy Agency and Cambridge Energy Research Associates. They all argue that no peak is visible before 2030 and "above-ground issues" 12 are more important than below ground issues.
In the middle way stands another camp, called mitigationist, warning of the risks and potential consequences of approaching Peak Oil. They suggest to look beyond the conflicting forecasts and to focus on the consequences of underestimating the severe consequences of the peak oil problem, and urge mitigation efforts begin immediately...."
January 3 2008 ~ shortages for diesel and heating oil now seem likely to develop before they do for gasoline
Falls Church News ~ Shortages for diesel and heating oil now seem likely to develop before they do for gasoline.It is going to be a lot harder to conserve on diesel fuel, which for the most part does vital work, than it would be to conserve gasoline for our personal transportation. ....To gain an insight into what will happen in 2008, we need to remember that refined diesel can only come from places that have refineries and a surplus to sell. We are talking about Europe, the Caribbean and some Asian countries, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. It is interesting to note that in the U.S. diesel is 28 percent of the total daily consumption of gasoline and diesel, while in Europe the number is 63 percent. In other words Europe is much more into diesel than the U.S. and therefore unlikely to have much for sale. International Energy Agency forecasts for 2008 show a substantial drop coming in distillate exports.
As diesel shortages are a real drag on China's economy, continuing or even increasing imports of this vital commodity are likely to continue. The bottom line seems to be that shortages for diesel and heating oil now seem likely to develop before they do for gasoline. Heating oil prices which have increased by nearly a dollar a gallon since last winter are already causing people to turn down the thermostats significantly, however if the unusually warm weather that is currently forecast for the next two months does not turn up, there is clearly trouble ahead."
January 3 2008 ~
(Reuters) - ".... The weak dollar, cold weather in the United States and unrest in Nigeria helped lift oil, which in turn boosted gold. ... U.S. light crude for February delivery fell 25 cents to $99.37 a barrel by 0426 GMT. Crude touched a record of $100 in the previous session, surpassing November's $99.29 peak. .... "Oil is particularly news-sensitive at the moment as we are in the peak heating oil demand period and prices are being driven by cold weather in the United States and tensions in oil producer Nigeria and to a lesser extent, Pakistan." Suspected militants mounted attacks in Nigeria's oil city, Port Harcourt, on Tuesday, killing 18. Regular attacks by militant groups since February 2006 have already cut oil exports by the world's eighth-largest crude exporter by about 20 percent. Investors will now be watching if crude can establish itself firmly above $100 a barrel. "
December 15 2007 ~
Guardian ~
"Expensive oil and food boosted euro zone inflation in November even higher than initially estimated to its steepest level in six and a half years, data showed, raising concern at the European Commission.
Consumer prices in the 13 countries using the euro rose 0.5 percent month-on-month and 3.1 percent year-on-year, the European Union statistics office said on Friday. The annual figure compared with 2.6 percent in October and the initial 3.0 percent estimate, which shaped market expectations.
It was the highest rate since May 2001, when inflation also reached 3.1 percent -- its strongest level since measurements for what is now the euro zone started in January 1997.
"These inflation numbers are bad news all round and come against a background of elevated and rising inflation expectations," said Klaus Baader, economist at Merrill Lynch.
"The credibility of the anti-inflationary regime in Europe is not really what it used to be."
The European Commission expressed concern ....."
December 10 2007 ~
Independent ~ "The oil rush is also scarring a wilderness landscape: millions of tonnes of plant life and top soil is scooped away in vast open-pit mines and millions of litres of water are diverted from rivers - up to five barrels of water are needed to produce a single barrel of crude and the process requires huge amounts of natural gas. The industry, which now includes all the major oil multinationals, including the Anglo-Dutch Shell and American combine Exxon-Mobil, boasts that it takes two tonnes of the raw sands to produce a single barrel of oil....as oil prices hover around the $100-per-barrel mark, Lord Browne's successor, Tony Hayward, announced that BP has entered a joint venture with Husky Energy, owned by the Hong Kong based billionaire Li Ka-Shing, to develop a tar sands facility..."
December 5 2007 ~
www.energybulletin.net ".......The magnitude of the coming decline in oil availability is truly alarming..... A collapse of the dollar seems imminent because of the converging effects of the unsustainable boom financed by ballooning consumer debt and the unsustainable flooding of the world economy with US Dollars to import two thirds of their oil as well as a flood of consumer goods. The United States is bankrupt but nobody wants to admit it. The main reasons that in the US Dollar retains any value at all are that a large number of countries hold dollars as foreign reserve, almost everybody buys their oil in dollars and manufacturing countries, particularly China, do not want to see a collapse of their largest market.
The consequences and speed of the downfall of the American Empire are highly unpredictable, but it is certain to be a disaster for the whole world, which ever way it unfolds. I worry that the US high command may do something really stupid, like launching military action to seize oil by force by attacking Iran or Venezuela for example. My only hope is that their current war for oil is going very badly and I don't think the American people will support any new resource wars. However, this may change if the economy collapses and there is massive unemployment and hardship similar to that of the Weimar Republic of the 1920s...." (Read in full)
December 3 2007 ~
Rutland Herald ~ The U.S. Government Accountability Office concluded in a report earlier this year, "… there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the … timing (of peak oil) or mitigating its consequences." In Vermont, things are no better. A doctoral student, after interviewing top officials in Vermont state government, recently concluded that the state has no reliable response to peak oil. At the local level, we're seeing only the beginnings of a response. Many cities and towns have energy teams, knit together in the Vermont Energy and Climate Action Network. The Brattleboro Select Board has appointed a Peak Oil Task Force, which is drafting a report on the town's vulnerability to peak oil. On Tuesday, the Middlebury Select Board began considering its own task force...."
November 2007 ~
Independent ~" .....a growing appreciation of the finite limits to global oil production. Not only is production running pretty much at full bore, but there are also doubts about the ability to increase production in the medium-term. The second is the surge in demand from the emerging economies, principally China. And the third is the growing evidence of an economic slowdown in the US and the relationship between the higher oil price and that slowdown. A word about each....
...The worldwide rise in food prices is, in part, the result of using maize for fuel rather than for food. It also changes the sense of power: Russia and the Middle East have become more important; Western Europe and the US less so.....
.... If China is to go on using all the additional oil that is available, or more, the rest of the world will have to get by with less. This makes the present surge in the oil price different from all previous oil shocks: it is caused by rising demand rather than restricted supply...
....Eventually, higher energy and raw material costs must feed through into US inflation. The weak dollar will exacerbate this trend. So can the US Federal Reserve credibly cut interest rates further in the face of this inflationary pressure? Quite a few sceptics have questioned the wisdom of its most recent cut, and neither the Bank of England nor the European Central Bank has sought to follow - the ECB may even increase rates later this year. While the world has coped with oil prices approaching $100 a barrel surprising well so far, the US at least will find it harder to do so.
The surge in the oil price is just one element of pressure on the world economy. Countries that are growing strongly can cope. Countries that are already under pressure, such as the US, are finding it harder to do so. And countries in the middle, such as the UK? Well, higher energy prices will be one more headwind against the economy, resulting in slower growth next year. Money spent at the petrol pump is money not available to spend on something else. "
November 2007 ~
.energybulletin.net".... oil prices could move irreversibly over the $100 a barrel threshold in the not too distant future, as the global economy faces a serious energy shortage.
This gloomy assessment comes from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization representing the 26 rich, gas-guzzling member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The agency is not known for alarmist warnings, and its World Energy Outlook is typically viewed by policy wonks as a solid indicator of global energy supplies. In a marked change from its traditionally bland, measured tones, the IEA's 2007 report says governments need to make urgent, bold decisions on energy policy, or risk massive environmental and energy-supply crises within two decades - crises and shortages that could spark serious global conflicts.
"I am sorry to say this, but we are headed toward really bad days," IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told TIME this week. "Lots of targets have been set but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action." ....."
November 7 2007 ~
Stuff co.nz World oil prices are racing toward record levels of US$100 a barrel, and gold is rushing to its highest in almost 30 years, as the United States dollar slumps against other currencies.
November 2 2007 ~
BBC analysts said that crude oil would probably break through $100 a barrel this year....There are also concerns about geopolitical issues such as a clash between the US and Iran, and an escalation of hostilities between Turkey and rebel Kurdish fighters based in the northern areas of Iraq....The problem facing oil markets and analysts is that all of the factors are combining to create a high level of uncertainty in the market and this, in turn, is driving prices higher..."
October 29 2007 ~
New Scientist ~ "It is downhill all the way for oil, according to a study by the Energy Watch Group (EWG) in Berlin, Germany. It reported this week that world oil production peaked in 2006 - far earlier than expected.
EWG analysed oil production figures and predicted it would fall by 7 per cent a year, dropping to half of current levels by 2030. The announcement comes as oil prices reached record highs last week, at more than $90 a barrel, and contradicts optimistic projections by the International Energy Agency in Paris, France.
The report also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production. The group warns that supply shortages could cause "a meltdown in society", leading to scenes of mass unrest, such as those that took place in Burma earlier this month when the government pushed up fuel prices..."
October 22 2007 ~
Wall Street Journal ~ The wagering over $100 oil has begun in earnest. Oil prices, which rose briefly above $90 a barrel Friday, are more likely to head toward $100 than $80 in the next month, according to the number of bets placed by options traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The large number of options held to buy crude at $100 a barrel could also act as a pull on prices toward that level. ...
October 8 2007 ~
www.iht.com ~ 'This is an industry in crisis masked by high prices,' " said J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy, an oil industry consulting firm in Washington. "There are no easy barrels left. The only barrels are going to be the tough barrels." There is plenty of oil and gas still in the ground, energy executives say. But global consumption is rising so fast they must keep looking for new sources. Despite concerns around the world about global warming and the role of fossil fuels in causing it, government specialists project that global oil and gas demand will jump about 50 percent in the next 25 years. At the same time, the big discoveries of the past three decades, like the North Sea and Alaska's North Slope, are drying up...."
October 5 2007 ~
www.miningmx.com"........if ASPO sounds like a voice on the fringe, it's worth considering that its founder - Colin Campbell, a geologist of 40 years' experience - has whipped up a veritable chorus of international support. He's joined by other prominent voices, including former Shell chairman Lord Oxborough, who has claimed that the world's oil industry is somnambulate in respect of alternative strategies to falling oil reserves. It's difficult to tell if there's an element of hysteria brought on by China's advent as a superpower and the ensuing commodities bull run. The current spikes in the oil price are partially informed by speculators capitalising on oil supply fears. However, Aspo's report quotes BP's Statistical Review, which shows that consumption in 2005 was 3.8 billion tonnes of oil, 8% growth over the past five years. Projecting similar growth for the next five years would imply oil consumption of about 4.1 billion tonnes, the report says."
September 21 2007 ~
abs-cbnnews.com ".....It was with much reluctance and foot-dragging that OPEC announced early this week they were pumping an additional 500,000 barrels of oil per day in November to cover for what they claim is a perceived undersupply in the world market and an expected rise in fuel stockpiling in preparation for the winter months in the temperate zones. Even then, prices in the world markets continued to rise. This has simply forced us to accept with eyes more open that we are no longer secure in a world fueled by oil and fossil fuels. This is an immutable fact that could drastically reshape the way our economies will run in the near future.....We are mere spectators watching a tableau where bigger forces are at play; all we can do is sit tight and hope that the ending is not one that is tragic."
September 16 2007 ~
Independent on Sunday " Oil industry 'sleepwalking into crisis'
David Strahan and Andrew Murray-Watson
"
Lord Oxburgh, the former chairman of Shell.....ahead of his address to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Ireland this week, one of the most respected names in the energy industry, said a rapid increase in the price of oil was inevitable as demand continued to outstrip supply. He said: "We can probably go on extracting oil from the ground for a very long time, but it is going to get very expensive indeed.
And once you see oil prices in excess of $100 or $150 a barrel, the alternatives simply become more attractive on price grounds if on no others."
Lord Oxburgh added that oil majors must invest more heavily in developing viable alternatives to oil and gas. ...
Commenting on whether "peak oil" - the point when global oil production goes into terminal decline - was likely to be reached in the near future, he said: "In a way it scarcely matters; what really matters is the gap between production and demand. I don't know whether there is going to be a peak in world oil production, whether it's going to plateau and then slowly come down.
It could well plateau within the next 20 years, and I guess I would be surprised if it hadn't."...."
September 14 2007 ~
CNN ~ "The end of oil. A small - but growing - group of experts think world oil production will peak in the next few years, to devastating effect. ....Adherents are growing, and include some fairly well-known names. In the coming week, a former chairman of oil giant Royal Dutch Shell (Charts) is speaking at a peak oil conference in Ireland, as is former U.S. Energy Secretary James Schlesinger. Most peak oil proponents simply don't believe the numbers put forward by industry and the government. The world will produce 118 million barrels of oil a day, up from its current 85 million barrels per day, just to satisfy projected demand by 2030, according to the Energy Information Agency. "That's never going to happen," said Richard Heinberg, a research fellow at the Post Carbon Institute and author of three books on peak oil. Heinberg says world production of regular crude oil actually peaked in May 2005. He also says production in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries is in decline, and that global oil discoveries peaked in 1964. Most importantly, he says reserves in the Middle East, where EIA predicts the bulk of new supply will come from, have been "systematically overstated." "Everyone just takes their figures at face value," Heinberg said. "But they are national oil companies, they can't be audited." Instead of production ramping up to 118 million barrels per day, Heinberg sees a plateau over the next few years, then gradual declines beginning in 2010. By 2015, he says the rate of decline will accelerate as field after field runs dry and few new supplies are found. By 2030, the world could be looking at powering its economy on 30 million barrels a year. "It's going to be an enormous shock to the global system," said Heinberg. "We're talking something on the order of the Great Depression, perhaps much worse." As for billions starving to death when crops dependent on fossil fuel-based fertilizers fail en masse, he said, "that's the worst case scenario, but it can't be ruled out."......."
September 12 2007 ~
Could salt water become the ultimate green fuel source?
WKYC ~ " We watched as they poured Morton's salt into a container, mixed it with water and then exposed the fluid to the Kanzius radio frequency device.
An intense flame erupted over the test tube......
Professor Emeritus, Rustum Roy, at the Penn State University Materials Lab is a leading expert on the science of water. He was impressed by the discovery but wanted to see it for himself.
.... Material Science faculty exposed more than 50 different water combinations to the radio frequency to see the reaction.
"This is the biggest discovery in 100 years in water research" exclaimed Professor Roy.
......many engineering experts aren't as impressed. Energy experts like University of Akron Professor Emeritus, Rudy Scavuzzo, Ph.D, say the burning of salt water is nothing more than a new twist on a high school science experiment.
Scavuzzo told Channel 3's Mike O'Mara that the Kanzius invention requires too much energy to be worth celebrating.
"There is no breakthrough", said Professor Scavuzzo, "Because there are more efficient ways of breaking water down to hydrogen and oxygen."
..... at PSU, Professor Roy wants the critics to reserve judgment until more research is done with the device.
"Certainly it needs investigation and certainly we ought to look at the question of how efficient it is", said Roy. "Because that will determine how much John Kanzius shakes up the world. He has shaken up the scientific world already. But this will determine how much he shakes it up."
Pointing at the RF machine, Roy added, "That's a tremendous advance in a new empirical discovery."
September 12 2007 ~
Kevin Drum at Washington Monthly ~
"OPEC agreed today to increase oil production by 500,000 barrels per day. But check out this sentence in the New York Times coverage:
Consuming nations, including the United States, have been urging OPEC producers to put more oil on the market, warning that the winter months would see a big jump in consumption that non-OPEC producers would not be able to meet.
Note that this is now apparently conventional wisdom: the only spare oil production capacity left in the world is in OPEC. The non-OPEC peak isn't five years off, or ten years off. It's now.
Contributor Hurricane Jim writes:
500,000 bpd...are we supposed to be impressed by this? I hate to say it, but that's about enough petrol for N. VA to take one trip to the Wal-Mart and back. I fear that the issue here, with so called production increases, isn't about markets or capacity, but more about letting the cat out of the bag...as in their "spare capacity" isn't all it's cracked up to be anymore, a fact the world is probably going to find out about sooner rather than later..."
September 11 2007 ~
Reuters ~ "Saudi Arabia persuaded OPEC to raise oil output by 500,000 barrels per day on Tuesday in a gesture to consumer nations worried by the economic impact of $77 oil and rapidly diminishing fuel stocks. After seven hours of talks, OPEC officials announced the hard-won deal, effective November 1. Before the meeting Libya, Algeria and Venezuela were inclined to resist the proposal put forward by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab neighbors....U.S. crude oil was down seven cents at $77.42 after the deal but still within sight of its record high of $78.77 a barrel......Simon Wardell, energy analyst at Global Insight, said even with extra OPEC oil global crude stocks could fall by 100 million to 150 million barrels by the end of the year. "That will push global inventories down to their lowest levels since 2004, with a risk that they could fall further if there is a cold winter," he said. " ....
September 8 2007 ~
Richard Heinberg.com ~ ".... In summary: We have used the plentiful, cheap energy from fossil fuels quite predictably to expand our power over nature and one another. Doing so has produced a laundry list of environmental and social problems..... the problem of our dependence on fossil fuels is central to human survival..... If we do focus all of our collective efforts on the central task of energy transition, we may find ourselves contributing to the solution of a wide range of problems that would be much harder to solve if we confronted each one in isolation. With a coordinated and voluntary reduction in fossil fuel consumption, we could see substantial progress in reducing many forms of environmental pollution.
The decentralization of economic activity that we must pursue as transport fuels become more scarce could lead to more local jobs and more fulfilling occupations, and more robust local economies.
A controlled contraction in global oil trade could lead to a reduction of international political tensions. A planned conversion of farming to non-fossil fuel methods could mean a decline in environmental devastation caused by agriculture and economic opportunities for millions of new farmers. Meanwhile, all of these efforts together could increase equity, community involvement, intergenerational solidarity, and the other intangible goods listed earlier...."
September 2007 ~
Energy Bulletin ~..... The last report from nearly two weeks ago places our gasoline inventory at 192.6 million barrels.
This may sound like a lot unless you that know as a nation we are burning in excess of 9.6 million barrels a day. If our minimum operating level really is somewhere in the vicinity of 185 million barrels, then we have about 18 hours of reserves left should there be a serious supply interruption like from a hurricane.
Even if the MOL is 170 million barrels or less, we only have a few days of useable reserves left and these are not evenly distributed across the country.
.....Gasoline prices are temporarily lost in the angst of the credit crisis. But this too will end. Sometime in the next few months, some event is likely to set off a spike in gasoline prices. Be it a hurricane, terrorist attack, adverse geopolitical crisis or some credit crisis development, the realization will dawn that we are extremely short of gasoline and have little hope of remedying the situation over the short term. Then the troubles will begin.
Dont overlook the possibility that someday soon there will be a run on the gas stations. A tank of gas is so important in America today that at the first reports of an impending gasoline shortage many of us will rush to fill our tanks. If we all did this at once, the national reserve would be drained by something on the order of 50 million barrels. A lot of us are sure to be disappointed because there simply is not enough gasoline in the system for this to happen."
August 20 2007 ~
Kansas.com ~ Peak oil, the point at which production of oil worldwide begins a progressive decline, is probably coming soon, economist George Littel told members of the Kansas Independent Oil and Gas Association at their annual convention this morning. Further, Littel said, when peak oil arrives it will be an economic, not a geologic, event because demand for energy is a strong driver of new exploration and production. ...... He also predicted an "ugly end" to the U.S. ethanol industry, which he said he "could find nothing good to say" about. And finally, he predicted a minor recession by the end of 2007 and a more substantial one at the end of the occupation of Iraq, which he thinks will come in 2013. Littel, of Groppe, Long and Littel, spoke to convention-goers at a breakfast meeting.
July 26 2007
Times Are these the last days of the Oil Age? William Rees Mogg ".....For the future, oil supply will be a zero-sum game. Some nations will be "haves" but others will be "have nots".
The shortage of oil and natural gas, relative to demand, had already changed the balance of world power. Historians may well conclude that the US decision to invade Iraq was primarily motivated by the desire to gain physical control of Iraq's oil and to provide defence support to other Middle Eastern oil powers. Political motivations are always mixed, but oil is an essential national interest of the United States. If the US is now deciding to withdraw from Iraq, the price will have to be paid in terms of loss of access to oil.... ..nothing will take us back towards the innocent expectation of indefinite expansion of the first months of the new millennium."
July 25 2007 ~
Independent ~
"Humanity is approaching an unprecedented crisis when not enough oil and gas will be produced to keep industrial civilisation running, the world's top oilmen warned last week.....
The 420-page report, the most comprehensive study ever carried out into the industry, has been produced by the National Petroleum Council, a body of 175 authorities that reports to the US government. It includes the heads of the world's big oil companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, Shell and BP....
The report concludes that "the global supply of oil and natural gas from the conventional sources ... is unlikely to meet ... growth in demand over the next 25 years". ....
Though vast amounts of oil and gas remain underground, "complex challenges" and "global uncertainties" are likely to put an end to "the sufficient, reliable and economic energy supplies upon which people depend". And the crunch could come sooner, with oil production becoming "a significant challenge as early as 2015". This chimes with the International Energy Agency's prediction that oil supplies could become "extremely tight" in five years. .."
July 21 2007 ~
evworld.com ~ The National Petroleum Council's July 18, 2007 report sees world oil and natural-gas supplies unlikely to keep up with rising demand over the next 25 years...World oil and gas supplies from conventional sources are unlikely to keep up with rising global demand over the next 25 years, the U.S. petroleum industry says in a draft report of a study commissioned by the government.....oil-industry leaders acknowledge the world will need to develop all the supplemental sources of energy it can..."July 21 2007 ~
Webdiary.com.au ~"...... The International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report estimates that oil demand will rise to 88.2Mbd in 2008, and that supply will rise to just meet that increase. We need to remember here that the IEA is a persistent denier of the existence of any peak-oil problem on the horizon, so there is a strong chance that they're being optimistic. Even if they aren't, their forecast suggests at least a year or more of the current situation, in which the tightness of supply over demand means that any real or rumoured interruption to supplies will push the price up further."
July 19 2007 ~
Aspo-usa.com "On Wednesday, the National Petroleum Council (NPC) plans to release its report on oil and natural gas trends out to 2030....Troubling trends are referenced, but their ramifications are dodged....Previous NPC forecasting has been flawed, according to ASPO-USA. The NPC's 1999 report on North American natural gas predicted stable prices and soaring production; within a few years, the exact opposite occurred. The current report forecasts production increasing seamlessly from 86 million barrels/day today to more than 115 million barrels/day by 2030.
....The NPC's Executive Summary contains some profoundly misleading graphs, according to ASPO. One suggests that petroleum supplies will grow for another two decades, another that five nations in the Middle East are capable and willing to double oil exports. Experts have serious doubts about both assumptions.....
.....The NPC study seems oblivious to geopolitical and economic reality. Nowhere in the executive summary are the countries of Iraq or Iran mentioned or leaders such as Putin or Chavez. The word "OPEC" appears only once, in a footnote.
"In the final analysis, the NPC Study is woefully inadequate, leaving the Secretary of Energy and the American public with inadequate warning of the huge economic and social risks that many experts believe are just around the corner," says Udall...." Read in full
July 18 2007 ~
A video record of an interview with David Strahan can be found here. See link to David Strahan's Guardian Comment article below
July 14 2007 ~
Guardian "....Brent crude was up by more than $1 to trade at a new 11-month high of $77.60 on the back of concerns over supply triggered by the shutdown of a North Sea pipeline. With global demand for oil strong, traders were also unsettled by a report from the International Energy Agency warning that supply would rise only modestly in 2008."
July 7 2007 ~
Guardian ~ "....Disrupted production in Nigeria pushed the price of brent crude oil just above $76 a barrel yesterday, the highest level since August last year. It later fell back to $75.64. Attacks by rebel groups on the Nigerian oil industry have cost the equivalent of 611,000 barrels per day in lost production over the last year and a half.
With the stand-off between the government and rebels in Nigeria highlighted by the kidnapping of a three-year-old British girl on Thursday, analysts warned that there was no immediate prospect of a fall in prices. "The global oil picture is fairly tight in terms of supply and demand growth," said Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil market analyst at BNP Paribas.
US refinery demand is set to start soaking up inventories of crude at a time when meteorologists have predicted that the respite America had in 2006 from hurricanes could be short-lived.
Demand for fuel in the US traditionally strengthens in the summer when motorists take to the roads in the holiday season......
Analysts expect refineries to ramp up crude oil runs in the coming weeks after a spate of lengthy unplanned maintenance shutdowns. Last week, inputs to US refineries rose in every part of the United States, except for the West Coast, according to government data.
Producers' cartel Opec has resisted calls from the International Energy Agency, representing 26 industrialised nations, to increase production in a pre-emptive move."
June 29 2007 ~
Huffington Post ~ "..... Depletion of aging oil fields is relentless. The world's largest oil fields -- all of which once produced at least one million barrels of oil/day -- are all in permanent decline. The smaller new fields brought into production can't offset the declines in the old war horses. It's like being on a treadmill that is both speeding and ramping up, where you work harder and harder just to stay in place.
9. New technology isn't saving the day. In the US, where we've applied the best technology available, production has slowly declined since the late 1970s.
10. Oil exports are riding for a fall. In exporting countries like Mexico, where production slips while domestic consumption grows, exports will shrink at an accelerated rate. China, the UK and Indonesia, oil exporters during the 1990s, are now importers. World oil exports will peak before world oil production peaks.
Highly hyped liquid substitute fuels, such as ethanol from corn and liquids from coal or oil shale, come with their own unique baggage. They can't be scaled up quickly, require huge energy and water inputs, and pose a range of environmental problems. ...."
June 29 2007 ~
Malaysia Sun ~ " Iran an example of 'peak oil' fear. ..... American petroleum economists say the events in Iran provide a timely warning as the world approaches peak oil', when the peak moment of exploration is passed and oil becomes scarcer and more expensive."
Tuesday June 26, 2007 ~
Guardian "The real casus belli: peak oil" Comment by David Strahan, author of "The Last Oil Shock - A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man" ".... global oil production is likely to peak within about a decade. Aggregate oil production in the developed world has been falling since 1997, and all major forecasters expect world output excluding Opec to peak by the middle of the next decade. From then on everything depends on the cartel, but unfortunately there is growing evidence that Opec's members have been exaggerating the size of their reserves for decades. .." More
June 22 2007 ~
Money Week~ "How Peak Oil went mainstream" is a Money Week headline this week: "Matt Drudge has just taken Peak Oil mainstream.
Up until today, you could randomly ask 10 people on the street what "Peak Oil" is and you'd get a blank stare from at least nine of them...."
The Drudge Report had taken notice of the article in the Independent (June 14) containing the paragraph "scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives..."
June 14 2007 ~
Food Week "
Bleak forecast for global business
Liquid fuel shortages, massive unemployment, high interest rates and severe recession.
Those are just some of the bleak prospects ahead for the global economy as our energy supplies dry up, according to a keynote speaker at the Smart 2007 supply chain conference to be held in Sydney next week.
The predictions come from Dr Roger Bezdek, a keynote speaker at the conference, described as an "internationally recognised expert" in energy market analysis and energy forecasting and President, Management Information Services, USA. He has co-authored two reports for the US Department of Energy on the economic impacts and risk management of declining oil supplies and liquid fuel mitigation options. ...Bezdek asserts that one of the major challenges preventing the issue from being taken seriously by many decision makers and industry leaders is a history of repeated and erroneous predictions of oil peaking. Data discrepancies in the past - owing to political biases or low quality of reserves data - may have given the world false assurance and prevented policy makers from taking recent, more robust forecasts seriously.
"The problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any faced by modern industrial society. Previous energy transitions, from wood to coal and from coal to oil, were gradual and evolutionary. The world is facing an imminent energy discontinuity that will be abrupt and painful," said Dr Bezdek. ..."
June 14 2007 ~
Independent ".... scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives. ...
In the 1970s Chris Skrebowski was a long-term planner for BP. Today he edits the Petroleum Review and is one of a growing number of industry insiders converting to peak theory. "I was extremely sceptical to start with," he now admits. "We have enough capacity coming online for the next two-and-a-half years. After that the situation deteriorates."
What no one, not even BP, disagrees with is that demand is surging. The rapid growth of China and India matched with the developed world's dependence on oil, mean that a lot more oil will have to come from somewhere. BP's review shows that world demand for oil has grown faster in the past five years than in the second half of the 1990s. Today we consume an average of 85 million barrels daily. According to the most conservative estimates from the International Energy Agency that figure will rise to 113 million barrels by 2030.
Two-thirds of the world's oil reserves lie in the Middle East and increasing demand will have to be met with massive increases in supply from this region.
..." More
June 14 2007 ~
Sydney Morning Herald Mexico oil output drop may spark crisis ".....There is no doubt that Mexican overall (oil) production is down and if it continues down, and prices don't continue up to offset that, then there is a huge fiscal crisis pending," the former US central banker said via a video link to a business conference in Mexico City. Mexico, the world's No. 9 exporter of crude oil and a key supplier to the United States, has seen its oil output taper off from historic peaks in 2004 due to declining yields at its huge but ageing Cantarell offshore field...."
June 6 2007 ~
Chloe Fox MP (Australia) Energy Bulletin ~ "........ 55 per cent of all oil is used for transportation; shipping costs are going to increase because, at the moment, the recent doubling in oil prices has raised average freight rates by 40 per cent; pesticides and fertilisers are made from and with oil; modern medicine, defence and water distribution are all powered by oil and petroleum-derived chemicals. If demand does not decline, many products and services produced with oil will become scarcer, leading to lower standards of living. There is a lot of debate as to whether peak oil has already happened or not. Let us say that it has. It is predicted that oil production will decline by 3 per cent per year. War, terrorism, the weather and other factors will likely push that figure up to nearly 10 per cent, meaning 50 per cent less production within seven years, and so it goes on and on....."
June 6 2007 ~
Online Opinion.com Australia"Severe climate change unlikely before we run out of fossil fuel...At Mexico's enormous oilfield named Cantarell, production is declining very rapidly......Shall we regard the oil that remains underground as a resource that can cause future carbon dioxide emissions or shall we accept that it is, in fact, inaccessible?
The UN's climate panel IPCC, that recently published its fourth report on climate change, regards the oil left in ground as a resource...The fact that the IPCC calls upon our politicians to make decisions that will discourage use of fossil fuels creates an impression that enormous fossil fuel resources exist: but following the research that we do at the Uppsala Hydrocarbon depletion study Group, UHDSG, there is every reason to question this.
At Uppsala University, we study global energy resources and we have now completed a detailed analysis of future oil production. By breaking down production into seven well-defined parts we can now give a timeframe for the moment when we will reach the maximum production rate for oil, or "Peak Oil" - the historical production peak.
It will occur between 2008 and 2018. If the world's giant oilfields, that produce 60 per cent of the world oil, behave like Cantarell we have a "worst case scenario" with a production peak in 2008. But if, instead, they follow the best prognosis for Cantarell, and we simultaneously reduce our consumption, then we get a "best case scenario" with maximal production in 2018.......We need new estimates of future temperature increases based on realistic expectations of oil, natural gas and coal use. Only then can we make sensible decisions for our future.
The world's greatest future problem is that too many people must share too little energy. In the current political debate we presumably need to replace the word "environment" with "energy", but the policy required to tackle the energy problem will greatly benefit the environment."
June 6 2007 ~
BBC ".....Opec secretary general Abdalla El-Badri said moves to use biofuels would make his members consider cutting investment in new oil production..."
May 29 2007 ~
Guardian " Britain's future prosperity has been hardwired to rising use of transport fuels, without a thought for the supply drying up....the white paper...mysteriously forgets to mention that the government intends to build another 2,500 miles of trunk roads and to double the capacity of our airports by 2030. Partly to permit this growth in transport, another white paper, also published last week, proposes a massive deregulation of planning law. There is no discussion in either paper of the implications of these programmes for energy use or climate change. There are plainly two governments of the United Kingdom, one determined to reduce our consumption of fossil fuel, the other determined to raise it.
...senior figures in and around the oil industry of a possible date for peak oil. They vary greatly, but many are clustered between 2010 and 2020. Another report, also commissioned by the US department of energy, shows that "without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented". The disasters invoked by the peaking of global oil supplies can be avoided only with a "crash programme" beginning 20 years before it occurs. If some of the estimates in the department of energy's report are correct, it is already too late..."`
May 27 2007 ~
CRUDE a video available online. A comment from Poster Omnitir at peakoil-dot-com "... the overall presentation of this documentary really brought peak oil and climate change into a much more interesting and mainstream-digestible format. The show used some impressive animations to describe the carbon cycle and the formation of oil during the Jurassic period. It went into detail about the greenhouse events that caused the build-up of carbon sediments in warm, stagnant oceans, and commented on the irony of how our rapid release of carbon could result in the planets next great build-up of carbon reservoirs. And of course it went into detail about the vital role of oil in modern civilization, and the potential impact peak oil may have."
May 2 2007 ~
Blogwired.com Pentagon and the End of Oil (Updated) It looks like someone in the Pentagon started reading about peak oil, got alarmed, and decided to take the typical course of action: commission a report. According to an article in the Boston Globe, the report comes to the unsurprising conclusion that dependence on oil is indeed a problem:
April 21 2007 ~
tahoedailytribune.com ~ "A new model predicting the production of the world's active oil fields will decline sometime between 2008 and 2018 has rekindled the debate surrounding peak oil theories. The study, conducted by Swedish physicist Fredrik Robelius, analyzes oil contributions from small oil fields, as well as the 333 giant oil fields in use today. Robelius' study is unique because it examines oil fields from ground level supplies...
April 21 2007 ~
NYT ~The events in Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest oil exporter, have rippled across energy markets, contributing to higher prices and tighter supplies. [On Friday, gunmen attacked a boat carrying oil workers to an offshore rig in the delta, pushing up oil prices by more than $1.50, to $63.38 a barrel.] The United States imports more than one million barrels of crude oil from Nigeria every day.
April 21 2007 ~
energybulletin.net ~ Albert Bates, guide for our post-petroleum, globally warmed future Jan Lundberg, Culture Change "We have an individual preparedness to be concerned with, and that involves securing a supply of food, water, shelter and other basic needs for yourself and your immediate community. And then we have a larger social preparedness, without which there is no hope for the individual to survive."
April 2 2007 ~
www.engineeringnews.co.za ~ "....oil and gas resources are increasingly in places where production is technically more difficult, such as offshore the Gulf of Mexico. The oilfields of top reserves holder Saudi Arabia are off limits for foreign companies. "The international oil companies are facing a tough challenge," said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, adviser to industrialised countries. "Their existing fields are declining and they do not have access to major oil reserves."
March 30 2007 ~
wiz.com ~ " Western Maryland Congressman Roscoe Bartlett is warning ....the phenomenon called "peak oil" is inevitable, and he's calling for strong leadership to develop alternatives before it's too late.
Bartlett says potential alternatives to oil are extremely limited and the report reveals the U.S. is particularly vulnerable."
The GAO report (link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf) will reveal the United States is particularly vulnerable and the United States federal government is unprepared to respond to severe consequences from an increasing risk of significant disruptions to world oil supplies from peak oil and other above ground political and economic factors.
March 2007 ~
BBC ~ "Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a deal in Athens to ship Russian oil to the EU via a pipeline bypassing the busy Bosphorus.
The 285km (178-mile) pipeline will go overland from Bulgaria's Black Sea port of Burgas to the northern Greek town of Alexandroupolis on the Aegean Sea.
The deal caps negotiations that have lasted 13 years. ...
.... a senior US State Department official, Matthew Bryza .... concerned that Europe could become too reliant on the Russian energy giant Gazprom as a source of natural gas.
At least one third of Russian oil exports currently leave by tanker via the Black Sea and Bosphorus Strait. "
March 2007 ~
Napa Valley Register ~ "..... It was reported by various sources that "Mexico's giant Cantarell field is now in a very serious state of decline." Cantarell has been the world's second largest oil field behind Saudi Arabia's super-giant Ghawar. Cantarell began 2006 producing 2.5 million barrels of crude a day. Pemex, the state-owned Mexican oil company, admitted that they are now having a difficult time coaxing 1 million barrels daily.
This was followed by reports that the North Sea oil fields of the United Kingdom and Norway are collapsing just as fast and will be producing between 800,000 and 1 million barrels a day less in several months. The problem is that there is nothing in the pipeline to replace these losses as our usage increases five times faster than discovery..."
February 6 2007 ~
BBC ".... the prospect of a concerted cold spell has pushed prices back up. The plunging temperatures are thought to have increased demand for distillate stocks by up to 500,000 barrels a day. According to one industry expert, official figures to be published on Wednesday could reveal that distillate inventories dropped by more than three million barrels over the past week."
February 1 2007 ~
Reuters "President George W. Bush's goal of increasing U.S. renewable fuel use five-fold to 35 billion gallons annually by 2017 is impossible under current technology, the chief executive of leading U.S. refiner Valero Energy Corp. said on Thursday....At best, current technology could double renewable fuel output to 15 billion gallons a year...."
January 29 2007 ~
Guardian
~ "....Dwindling oil stocks could cause the UK to be vulnerable to food shortages
for the first time since the second world war.
Over the weekend hundreds of people gathered in Wales for the Soil
Association's annual conference, now it seems a good time to reflect on the
enormous vulnerability of our industrialised food system's access to cheap
oil. Dwindling stocks and EU trade and energy policies threaten food price
hikes - and could cause the UK to be vulnerable to food shortages for the
first time since the second world war...."
January 27 2007 ~
FWi ~ "Academic predicts rising oil prices will prompt a local food renaissance. A renaissance in local food for local communities is coming and the UK will need a huge increase in the agricultural workforce to deliver it. Speaking at the Soil Association Conference in Cardiff, on 26 January, American author Richard Heinberg said the peak oil theory where production plateaus and prices sky rocket could force dramatic changes on UK and world farming. Dr Heinberg, an expert on the economies of oil, suggested that the increase seen in the agricultural workforce of Cuba, which has been starved of oil by American sanctions, could act as a model for the UK. Based on this model he estimated that in 20-30 years a 16-fold increase in the UK agricultural workforce, or between 8m--10m people would have to be involved in farming and associated industries..... .. He called for policies to assist a return to local food production such as land reform, education about farming, loans and incentives and stabilised and higher food prices. .... Dr Heinberg urged the Soil Association to work with others to promote food security and energy policies to remove dependency on fossil fuels."
January 26 2007 ~
evworld.com ~ Senator Roscoe Bartlett: Man on a Mission "....the Congressman believes mankind has enjoyed the luxury of an energy-rich life made possible by a bounty of fossil fuels that took millions of years to form and that we'll use up in a few generations.
He explained that there are other "finite" energy resources we can tap, but they too are limited. The tar sands of Alberta are dependent on cheap, stranded natural gas, which will eventually run out; and that the rich seam that can be cheaply surface mined runs under a geological over thrust that will have to be mined 'in situ', increasing the complexity and expense of getting at the bitumen. The entire process also generates a host of serious environmental problems from carbon dioxide emissions to polluted tailing waters......
To get even a better sense how the Congressman feels about gasoline and carbon taxes, among other things, I encourage you to listen to our entire conversation." (evworld.com)
January 7 2007 ~
Observer "China's quest for oil.....
China's foreign policy is increasingly driven by the need to feed its growing appetite for oil. ...
That means less reliance on the Middle East; less transportation of oil via sea-lanes policed by the US navy; more capacity for the Chinese navy to protect Chinese tankers; and more oil brought overland by pipeline from central Asia.
Over the past two years, China has pulled off a string of strategic oil deals. In April 2005, Petro China and Canadian company Enbridge signed a memorandum to build a $2bn 'gateway' pipeline to move oil from Alberta to the Pacific Coast. In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez is to build a Chinese-financed pipeline to the Pacific coast through Colombia, having given China oil and gas exploration rights in 2005. Saudi Arabia surrendered to Chinese courtship in 2004 and accorded exploration rights.
In Sudan, a major source of oil, China's blind eye to human rights and mass murder if it hinders its interests is demonstrated by Zhou Wenzhong's comment when Deputy Foreign Minister about the situation in Darfur where more than 250,000 have died
- .'Business is business,' he said. 'We try to separate politics from business and, in any case, the internal position of Sudan is an internal affair, and we are not in a position to influence them.'
November 22 2006 ~
Energy Bulletin ".......Peter Jackson is asking us to believe that we are going to see what we have never seen before: conventional oil production rising for decades after crossing the 50% of Qt mark. This prediction is especially remarkable given the near certainty that all four of the current super-giant oil fields producing one million barrels/day or more are in decline or crashing, while there is only one new super giant field being developed, the problematic Kashagan Field that wont reach peak production, at the earliest, until 2020.
In conclusion, according to the EIA the world through August 2006 has produced roughly 100 million fewer barrels of crude + condensate than if we had simply maintained the December 2005 production level. This is consistent with the Hubbert/Deffeyes model. It is not consistent with the Yergin/Jackson model. The early data suggest that Deffeyes is correct and that Jackson is wrong, but we can't yet say with certainty who is correct."
November 22 2006 ~
Falls Church News-Press " It is not much of leap to believe that CERA is coming under heat from those who recognize that a bad call on peak oil will be devastating. This CERA report, which is obviously an attempt to defend their position, may be a sign that the message of peak oil may just be getting through to the corporate world. ..."
November 19 2006 ~
www.eurotrib.com ~ "The energy world is busy discussing the most recent study provided by CERA, the energy consultancy headed by Daniel Yergin, the author of "the Prize", the acclaimed book (and TV series) on the history of oil. Titled Why the "Peak Oil" Theory Falls Down -- Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources, it claims to thoroughly debunk the theory of peak oil...
.... these optimistic scenarios, with their aggressive titles, point in the exact opposite direction, i.e. that no effort is necessary and that markets will provide all the oil that we (the wide 'we' which includes China and the rest of the emerging world alongside the West) demand.
How insane is that?
We know the problem is there. Even its official deniers put it barely 25 years away.
..."
November 19 2006 ~
energybulletin.net ~ ".... What evidence is there to suggest that a peak in global oil production is near? CERA seeks a sober dialogue to identify "clear signposts that will herald the onset" of either the peak or their "undulating plateau" of world oil production. Here, ten reasons why this turning point is likely between now and 2015..."
November 13 2006 ~
Xianghe, Reuters & PTI ~
"G20 summit vows to combat oil crisis
.........Oil, which Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said was the focus of Saturday's morning session, attracted special attention. "We are concerned that long-lasting high and volatile oil prices could slow down growth and cause instability in the global economy," the draft said.
"To stabilise the oil price at a reasonable level we agree to work together and call on the international community to strengthen cooperation to improve production and refining capacities, and to enhance dialogues between oil suppliers and consumers through the existing fora." According to the draft, the G20 stressed the need to promote energy saving and alternative sources of energy and to reduce subsidies on oil products. In a fervent appeal, Chinese President Hu Jintao on Saturday asked G-20 members to intensify dialogue and coordination on macro-economic policies to jointly promote the balanced and orderly development of the world economy. ..." (The G20 Forum will be held on the weekend of November 18 and 19
in Melbourne) .
November 11 2006 ~
IEA.org ~ London --- "World political leaders have decided to act with resolution and urgency to change the energy future. The World Energy Outlook 2006 shows how to make that happen", said Claude Mandil, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) today in London at the launch of the latest edition of the Outlook - the annual flagship publication of the IEA.
"WEO-2006 reveals that the energy future we are facing today, based on projections of current trends, is dirty, insecure and expensive. But it also shows how new government policies can create an alternative energy future which is clean, clever and competitive - the challenge posed to the IEA by the G8 leaders and IEA ministers", Mr. Mandil emphasised. ...
.....There has been an apparent surge in oil and gas investment in recent years, but it is, to a large extent, illusory. Drilling, material and personnel costs in the industry have soared, so that in real terms investment in 2005 was barely higher than that in 2000. ....
...New biofuels technologies being developed today, notably ligno-cellulosic ethanol, could allow biofuels to play a much bigger role - if major technological and commercial challenges can be overcome.
The World Energy Outlook 2006 was produced by the IEA with input from many distinguished international experts from government, industry and academia. The annual Outlook publication has long been recognised as the leading source of forward-looking global energy market analysis and has received a number of awards from prestigious organisations around the world.
.......
November 8 2006 ~
Energy Bulletin ~ "......The most prominent issue of the American campaign, of course, was the war in Iraq. While most Americans know the obvious--Iraq has lots of oil and America needs lots of oil--the debate has centered around democracy, terrorism and the human and financial costs of the conflict. Very little has been said about the fact that oil is central to economic growth and that there is no ready substitute for it. And, virtually nothing has been said about the possibility of a peak in world oil production, an event which is likely to happen within the next decade or two. (Some say it already has.) From the political rhetoric you wouldn't know that the reason Iraq has been the central issue of the campaign is precisely because of its large role in the oil markets.
In addition, soil erosion and fertility, the depletion of major fisheries, the destruction of forests, and the skyrocketing prices of raw materials such as copper, nickel and steel are all nonstarters for political candidates. It's as if the basics of civilization--stable climate, fresh water, fertile soil, minerals, and energy supplies--were afterthoughts or at most a problem of location as in the case of oil.
And yet, major issues in American politics flow directly from our ecological predicament...."
October 23 2006 ~
www.alternet.org ~ " Cities of the Future Won't Look Like Ours... The era of cheap oil is over, and lost with it an energy-rich way of life that billions of city dwellers have come to take for granted. ...
- ...The sprawl industry also drove a reckless debt creation racket and multiple layers of traffic in mortgages and spinoffs of mortgages (such as the derivatives trade based on bundled, securitized debt) which represents, at bottom, hallucinated wealth that in turn has spread false liquidity through the equity markets and is certain to affect them badly sooner or later. All this is what we have been calling the "housing bubble" and it is now beginning to fly apart with deadly effect.....as gasoline prices go up, and long commutes become untenable, and jobs along with incomes are lost, and the cost of heating houses larger than 1500 square feet becomes an insuperable burden. All this is to say that the suburban rings of our cities have poor prospects in the future. They therefore represent a massive tragic misinvestment, perhaps the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world. It is hard to say how this stuff might be reused or retrofitted, if at all, but some of it, perhaps a lot, may end up as a combined salvage yard and sheer ruin.
Another major impact of the coming energy scarcity will be the end of industrial agriculture. Without abundant and cheap oil and gas-based fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and fuels for running huge machines and irrigation systems, we will have to make other arrangements for feeding ourselves. Crop yields will go down -- a big reason, by the way, to be skeptical of ethanol and bio-diesel alternative fuel schemes based on corn or soybean crops. We will have to grow food closer to home, on a smaller scale, probably requiring more human and even animal labor, and agriculture is likely to come closer to the center of economic life than it has within memory -- at the same time that mass production homebuilding, tourism based on mass aviation, easy motoring, and a host of other obsolete activities fade into history..."
October 23 2006 ~
BBC ~ The government has been accused of "squandering" the windfalls of the country's now dwindling North Sea oil and gas reserves. Such income should have been better invested in renewable energy, says a report by the New Economics Foundation and the Worldwide Fund for Nature. It also claims that £1 in every £12 of government income comes from oil or gas, making it "hooked" on the fuels.
October 20 2006 ~
Money Week ~ "......Even The New York Times joined the chorus in a Sunday editorial, saying:
-
"Our demand for petroleum products strains the limits of the global capacity to supply them. In past decades, if a pipeline broke in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia might compensate by setting workers to pumping more oil. Now, with little additional capacity, rising prices are necessary to balance out supply and demand."
October 17 2006 ~
uk.theoildrum.com ~ Lies, damned lies and government oil production forecasts? The UK Department of Trade and Industry (Oil and Gas) and the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate have both published production forecasts showing increased oil production in the years 2007 and 2008. Oil production in the UK and Norway has been falling steadily in recent years following peak production in 1999 and 2001 respectively.
These forecasts have a significant impact upon forecast trade balance, particularly in the UK which has just turned net oil importer. So lets see how the UK and Norway are going to pull off this gravity defying, Hubbert denying stunt. ...."
October 2006 ~
seekingalpha.com ~
* Previous shortages (1973-74, 1979-86, Iraq wars) were man-made; present shortages are due to a true lack of oil. Hubbert's Peak, the theory that says global oil production will peak, will dominate our attitude by 2015-2020.
* National oil companies [NOCs] account for 3/4 of global production. They face structural challenges: (1) Poor political influence; their profits are going to support local issues such as the military. (2) NOCs failed to react to a reduction in global surplus (it fell from 20% in 86-87 to the current 2-3%) due to lack of money and a lack of skilled management. "I don't know how we get around the problem of the NOCs. They control so much of the world's production and they are bloody helpless. They don't have enough money and they don't have prestige and they don't have professionalism."
* Multinationals such as ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) lack vision; they have failed to recognize/react to the production problem. They are underspending on exploration and development and under-leasing deep-water projects.
(Oct 15 2006)
The entire summary appears one-third of the way down the original article at SeekingAlpha. This is the summary only. Full article at Barrons requires a paid subscription.
September 25 2006 ~
Globe and Mail ~" The much-touted potential for Canada's oil sands to offset projected declines in North American oil production remains highly questionable because of constraints on natural gas production and environmental problems, a group of Swedish industry experts concludes in a new report. To meet its ambitious targets, the industry would likely require the construction of a nuclear power plant near Fort McMurray in Alberta in order to replace natural gas in the energy-intensive production process, the scientists argue. Writing in the influential European journal Energy Policy last month, the analysts for the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group warned that the world should not count on Canada's massive oil sands deposits to meet future demand growth....."The gas situation in North America is terrible," Mr. Aleklett said. "It's unbelievable what they are doing and what they are saying [about future gas production], maybe they are afraid to tell the reality because it is just so grim." ...." -
September 24 2006 ~
Vancouver Sun ~
"......The U.S. House of Representatives is among the groups that have invited Aleklett to present his message.
The basic notion is that the world's oil producers are close to an absolute peak in terms of the volume of oil they can put onto the market in a given year.
Once that moment arrives, annual crude oil output will begin a long decline -- with grim consequences for national economies.
Aleklett believes the peak could arrive as soon as 2008 -- and that the struggle to adjust to the new energy reality could take 20 years, posing enormous challenges for developed nations.
Some observers suggest that the decline will prompt an economic and social meltdown on a scale last experienced in the Great Depression -- or perhaps when the Black Death swept across Europe in 1347.
Even the International Energy Agency, which mulls global oil issues on behalf of Canada and 25 other developed countries including the United States, Great Britain and Japan, is exploring "barbarization" scenarios in which billions of people starve, national governments collapse, economies are forced to deindustrialize, and many regions of the world return to "semi-tribal or feudal social structures."
"Oil wars are certainly not out of the question," says the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Each day the world gulps down 82 million barrels of oil -- virtually the same amount that is produced.
The United States Energy Information Agency projects consumption to increase to 103 million barrels per day in 2015, and 119 million barrels each day by 2025.
That means global production must increase by 45 per cent -- about five times the maximum annual output available from Alberta's oilsands -- just to keep pace with ordinary economic growth.
There's just one problem.
No one can say with confidence where all that extra oil will come from....."
August 17 2006 ~
Energy Bulletin ~ "......
Despite having its soldiers pinned down by Sunni militants, Washington plans to overthrow the regime in Tehran, purportedly over the latter's nuclear enrichment program. An outright invasion would be catastrophic to the global economy, not when the 1.0 to 1.3 million barrels of oil cushion is expected from Saudi Arabia. Iran has the capacity to take out 10-20 million barrels per day by destroying oil infrastructures in the Gulf Arab states, and sink enough tonnage to make the Straits of Hormuz impassable.
An Iranian response has to be quick, brutal and bloody as paradoxically, it is net importer of gasoline. Years of U.S.-led sanctions have left the Iranian oil complex in a decrepit state.
But this does not stop each party from laying a snare for each other. The proxy war fought in Lebanon was yet another manifestation of this game. If Washington thinks it has knocked a pawn or two from Tehran's game plan through the proposed deployment of 15,000 U.N. sanctioned troops in Southern Lebanon, it should think again.
Then of course, there is China which supplies the finest weaponry in Iran's arsenal. The world's fastest growing economy, and its fastest growing market, has already locked and secured oil and other raw materials from some of the most despotic regimes on earth........
If there is any disruption to oil supplies, China would be the first to reel, and that would be dangerous. ...."
August 13 2006 ~
BBC ~ "BP says part of its Prudhoe bay oilfield in Alaska will stay open, after considering a total shut-down. The oilfield's western side will keep running, as the firm embarks on repairing pipes and "enhanced surveillance" the firm said. The move will allow BP to supply up to half of its output from the oilfield, which represents 8% of US output. ............... Prudhoe Bay, which produces around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), is the largest US oilfield. The threat to this supply comes as conflict in the Middle East and worries over supplies from Nigeria have prompted oil prices to hit record highs recently. On Friday Brent crude closed at $75.83, but this was some $3 below the record high induced by the Prudhoe Bay leak. US light, sweet crude reached $74.45.
August 6 2006 ~
Reuters ~
" ....After "numerous" satisfactory maintenance reports to the state in the past that oil-field pipeline corrosion was being adequately controlled, BP abruptly decided to shut down Prudhoe Bay without consulting the state, Murkowski said.
"We will hold British Petroleum accountable for past and future field management decisions," Murkowski told a joint session of the legislature in Juneau.
"One has to ask themselves, what did BP learn last Saturday or Sunday or whatever that it did not know previously that would cause BP to take such a precipitous action?"...."
August 6 2006 ~
Informed Comment ~ ".....as non-OPEC energy production decreases, the US and Israel could find themselves out in the cold on the energy front....
- Non-OPEC production will decline sharply in coming years, increasing the importance of the Persian Gulf region. The point about excess capacity is this: The US in 2005 produced over 7 million barrels of petroleum a day, but consumes all of it, and then imports two times that from abroad (using nearly 22 million barrels a day in 2005). So US petroleum is essentially off the market. But Saudi Arabia produces 9.5 million barrels a day and exports over 7 million of that. It doesn't use it all up at home. Even now, the excess production is in the Gulf, and that excess production will become more important over time.
It may be that that hawks are thinking this way: Destroy Lebanon, and destroy Hizbullah, and you reduce Iran's strategic depth. Destroy the Iranian nuclear program and you leave it helpless and vulnerable to having done to it what the Israelis did to Lebanon. You leave it vulnerable to regime change, and a dragooning of Iran back into the US sphere of influence, denying it to China and assuring its 500 tcf of natural gas to US corporations. You also politically reorient the entire Gulf, with both Saddam and Khamenei gone, toward the United States. Voila, you avoid peak oil problems in the US until a technological fix can be found, and you avoid a situation where China and India have special access to Iran and the Gulf.
The second American Century ensues. The "New Middle East" means the "American Middle East."
And it all starts with the destruction of Lebanon..." Read in full
July 31 2006 ~
- Wiadomosci onet.pl
Benchmark crude oil futures held steady above $73 a barrel Monday as traders monitored developments in the Middle East amid a suspension of Israeli air strikes in Lebanon.
July 17 2006 ~
-
BBC ~ "Oil prices continued to flirt with the $78-a-barrel level on Monday as fighting between Israel and Lebanon escalated over the weekend.
The conflict in the Middle East has created more nervousness and uncertainty in an oil market already suffering jitters over global supply.
However, oil producers' body Opec has insisted the market is well supplied. ..."
July 9 2006 ~
-
Resource Investor ~ "... Now we see record highs for the oil price, but nothing is new in the oil market, and we can't really blame bombs in Baghdad or missiles in Korea. These are passing stories, even if they are disturbing to all. No, there has to be far more than this to take prices up this way.
The reason is far more disturbing than a news item: China.....
...
Demand from China alone is projected to rise to 2000 million tonnes by 2020, 14 years time. This equate to around 40 million barrels a day [It is difficult to be exact because there is a 12.8% variation in the weight of oil between the different types]. Now add just a doubling of India's oil requirement from similar current demand levels, over the same period [despite the fact that India is growing at around 8% per annum] and you get demand rising to an increased daily demand of 50 million barrels a day.
.
...... supply from old fields, such as the North Sea, Cantrell in Mexico and those of Saudi Arabia is rapidly running out already, so take that supply out of the equation. Will China build it planned strategic oil reserves? If so add that demand to these figures. Now throw in the Joker, the weather? This is a fundamental picture, which explains why oil remains over $75 a barrel, why it won't fall to $50 and why any supply rupture will send the oil price up to $100. ..."
June 30 2006 ~
-
Zmag.org ~ ".... We are starting to eat oil and drink oil. Oil is at
the heart of industrial food production and processing, and long distance
food transport. The wheat, India is importing is not just bringing weeds,
pests and pesticides. It is also carrying thousands of "food miles". Imagine
a Tsunami or cyclone if our food supplies become dependent on wheat from U.S
and Australia. And imagine the cost of wheat as oil prices rise, and wheat
embodies more oil than nutrition.
We are also drinking oil, not water. When Coca Cola and Pepsi pump 1.5 to 2 million a day to fill their soft drink and water bottles, and transport them to the remotest part of India, water embodies oil both in its extraction and transport. It is increasingly impossible to find clean water in our wells and springs. But Aqua Fina and Kinley has reached every village, selling water which has become oil, packaged in a plastic bottle made from oil.
While the political parties protest against the hike in oil prices, society also needs to start taking a long-term view of the ecological, economic and social costs of our growing oil addition...."
June 27 2006 ~
-
Huffington Post ~ "...Petroleum supplies 97% of transportation energy. In addition to cars, petroleum fuels provide the power to transport almost all of the country's needs, diesel for trucks and locomotives, fuel for ships and airplanes.
Oil has a staggering impact on our collective way of life. According to the Association of Oil Pipelines, more than 16% of the nation's economic output stems directly from transportation. Significant portions of the economic benefits from core national industry sectors could not function without petroleum. Almost all the resins and other compounds used to manufacture plastics are made from oil feed stocks. Many medicines are manufactured from petroleum products. Farmers depend on petroleum-based fertilizers.
The five core oil dependent industries are: food and related products, drugs and pharmaceuticals, plastics, industrial chemicals, and motor vehicles. Collectively, they combine for more than $940 billion in revenue and roughly 2.7 million employees. Moreover, the Defense Department buys more oil products than any other single buyer in the world, roughly $3.6 billion annually.
The impact on the economy is already being felt beyond the pump......"
June 5 2006 ~
-
Reuters ~ Oil climbs over $73 on worries over Iran ..Oil prices were also boosted by production problems at U.S. refineries during the start of peak summer fuel demand.
"We're in the driving season and the hurricane season, so we're in the mode where the market seasonally trades higher," said Brady.
Oil product futures led gains on Monday, with gasoline up 1.2 percent at $2.2246 a gallon while heating oil rallied 1.2 percent to $2.0376 a gallon. ......The disruptions come at the start of what is expected to be another busy storm season in the U.S. Gulf, where last year's hurricanes devastated oil facilities and drove prices to record highs.
OPEC producers agreed last week to leave output limits unchanged and keep pumping at near full rates in a bid to ease prices, which they worry will spur inflation that could slow economic growth and sap oil demand.
In OPEC member Nigeria, kidnappers freed eight foreign oil workers on Sunday, two days after they were seized in an unprecedented raid on an exploration rig far offshore.
Attacks onshore or in shallow water are frequent in the Niger Delta, but this showed that even deep offshore facilities are no longer safe..."
May 2006 ~
-
International Herald Tribune ~
".....crude oil is not merely a physical commodity that fuels the world economy, powers planes, trains and automobiles, heats cities, and provides fuel for electricity. It has also become a valuable financial asset, bought and sold in electronic exchanges by traders around the world. And they too, have helped push prices higher.
In the latest round of furious buying, hedge funds and other investors have helped propel crude oil prices from around $50 a barrel at the end of 2005 to a new record of $75.17 on the New York Mercantile Exchange last week.
In January 2002, oil was at $18 a barrel....
......According to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consulting firm owned by IHS, Iraq is 900,000 barrels a day below its prewar output; Nigeria has shut 530,000 barrels a day; Venezuela is still 400,000 barrels below its prestrike production; and the Gulf of Mexico remains down by 330,000 barrels a day. In all, this amounts to more than two million barrels of disrupted oil, Cambridge Energy estimates.
The latest reason for gains on energy markets is the growing fear that the diplomatic standoff between the Western powers and Iran over nuclear technology will get out of hand. ... "
April 30 2006 ~
-
Guardian ~ "From traders to tankers: who makes a mint out of $70-barrel oil
This week petrol prices broke new records in Britain and the US, creating political fallout for President Bush and pushing UK fuel towards £1 a litre. But who is getting rich? We offer a dollar-by-dollar guide to a $2.4trillion global oil industry.....
...Mr Bush earlier this week called a halt to rebuilding stocks in a Strategic Petroleum Reserve to use in time of emergency, in favour of leaving more oil in the market for other uses. The president has also instructed the Federal Trade Commission, plus the departments of justice and energy, to investigate possible cheating on pump prices by oil companies. In January in his state of the union address, Mr Bush admitted: "America is addicted to oil."
£24 billion, UK government fuel duty per year
$2, 400, 000, 000, 000 oil industry turnover in one year "
April 28 2006 ~
-
LiveScience.com ~ "...fixes are only temporary and largely symbolic, scientists say. They will do little to address the more serious threat of what will happen when demand for oil outstrips the ability to produce it.
And that's an inevitable problem that could be just around the corner, though nobody knows exactly when it will occur.....Energy experts no longer debate about whether Hubbert's peak will occur, but when. On this point, estimates vary wildly. Kenneth Deffeyes, a Professor Emeritus at Princeton University, believes it has already happenedin late 2005. Others figure we still have another 20-30 years.
One thing that many experts do agree on, however, is that when we do hit the peak, steps like those Bush is advocating will not be enough.
"It was a pocketbook issue," Larry Nation, a spokesperson for the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), told LiveScience. "It's not a long term fix by any means."
Amos Nur, the Wayne Loel Professor of Earth Sciences at Stanford University, expressed a similar sentiment.
"It's more or less symbolic," Nur said about Bush's proposals. "I don't think it's going to make any real difference because it doesn't really deal with the basic problem that we're facing."
...."
(The article also draws attention to the Hirsch Reportpdf)
April 24 2006 ~
-
Independent ~ "....Analysts said markets would be on edge over the days leading up to the publication of the report on Iran by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Friday.
"Given that the US has maintained that 'all options are on the table', including those of a military nature, this report and any accompanying sanctions are sure to cause nervousness in all markets," said economists at ING Financial Markets.........The International Energy Agency said yesterday that Opec, which produces about 40 per cent of the world's oil supply, will "just about" meet the expected growth in global oil demand over the next three years. The IEA warned that if current policies remain global energy demand would grow by 25 per cent by 2015..."
April 22 2006 ~
-
Political Gateway.com ~
" U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., warned of a coming oil crisis and urged "dramatic steps, including conservation" to help Americans face energy problems.
in his most recent State of the Union speech, U.S. President George W. Bush said the United State is addicted to oil, but Nelson said the president hasn't come up with "the tough policy changes needed to make a real difference." Nelson, delivering the Democrats' radio address Saturday, said the first step is to "confront some powerful interests, including the oil lobby." He said the use of hybrid vehicles and alternative fuels would help, as would tapping into technology to set mileage standards at 40 miles to the gallon for passenger cars.
He warned that an energy crisis could be set off by a terrorist attack, foreign government action such as Venezuela cutting off oil supplies, or a natural disaster that hit oil producing areas..." "Whatever the cause, the crisis is coming," Nelson said. "And so America must act now, before soaring prices and a dependence on foreign oil puts a choke-hold on our economy and military."
April 20 2006 ~
-
Bloomberg ~ "..... The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, whose assaults have already shut down about a fifth of the country's output, said it detonated a car bomb yesterday at a barracks in Part Harcourt in the Rivers state. MEND struck Royal Dutch Shell Plc's facilities in February and yesterday called for oil workers to leave, threatening further sabotage.
"The car bomb news pushed the price up again,'' said Kevin Blemkin, a broker with Man Financial Plc in London. "The market is very nervous.''
Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 32 cents to $72.49 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since trading began in 1983. It was up 13 cents as of 10:30 a.m. London time. ..."
April 19 2006 ~
-
Reuters ~ "U.S. oil eased on Wednesday but kept sight of its record high above $71 a barrel as dealers feared Iran's intensifying row with the West over its nuclear aims may cut supplies from the world's fourth-largest exporter. ...
Oil has trebled since the start of 2002 and may be set to test the inflation-adjusted peaks above $80 a barrel reached in the early 1980s, just after the Iranian Revolution, setting off alarm bells in consuming nations fearful of an economic hit.
.....Gordon Brown will this week urge the Group of Seven to seek better ways to ensure oil supplies and boost energy efficiency, extracts from a speech showed. .......investors have focused on the worsening conflict over Iran's atomic program -- and more recently the prospect of U.S. military action. "It's like the Cuban Missle Crisis, we are just waiting for someone to blink," said Michael Coleman, managing director of Singapore-based hedge fund Aisling Analytics. ..."
April 18 2006 ~
-
Information Clearing House ~ "Ultimately the whole crisis is most likely caused by Peak Oil. The US wants to
use her military superiority, perhaps including her massive nuclear arsenal,
to assert control of the largest remaining fossil fuel reserves in the world.
Iran is such a big problem because, while the US has - for ideological
reasons - refused to do business with the Islamic Republic, China, Japan,
Russia and India have stepped in and secured lucrative deals with the
Iranians...........
Should the US attack Iran with nuclear weapons, as reportedly planned, a 60-year-old taboo against these weapons would be instantly abolished and all nuclear powers would be ready to use similar weapons too......
It remains to be seen whether a desperate attempt to control the Middle Eastern oil and gas, by a country on the verge of bankruptcy, will be considered worthwhile by that country's leaders in Washington." Read in full
April 11 2006 ~
-
Reuters ~
"An influx of fresh fund buying and geopolitical worries will most likely push oil prices to new record highs soon, analysts said on Tuesday, while the most bullish predicted prices to eventually climb to $100 (57 pounds) a barrel.
.......
Analysts said prices could peak at around $80 a barrel, a level that matches inflation-adjusted prices set after the 1979 Iranian revolution.
Twenty-seven years later, the market is again focussed on the Middle East country as Tehran battles with the West over its nuclear programme.
.............. Analysts agreed that OPEC, the source of more than a third of the world's oil, would be of little help in a crisis. The cartel, which is already pumping at near-maximum capacity, has repeatedly said it wants oil between the upper $50 to lower $60 range. "OPEC can make all the statements that they want, but they really can't do anything," Jakob said......"
April 11 2006 ~
-
Energy Bulletin ~ " TV news series on peak oil
WCOO-TV in Minnesota began broadcasting the first US news series that explicitly covers peak oil. The first segment has interviews with Peak Oil figures like Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, Kenneth Deffeyes and Matt Simmons....."
March 24 2006 ~
-
TimesOnline: ~ EU agrees common energy policy
The EU agreed to devise a shared energy policy for the first time today to better withstand a future of rising oil prices, climate change and strong-arm tactics by Russia and the oil producers of the Middle East....
March 22 2006 ~
-
Salon.com ~ "..... he sees peak oil as providing a kind of wholesale referendum on the American way of life.
"I think that we can adapt, but our adapting may not be so much technological, as sociological, and maybe even spiritual," Robinson says. "It really comes down to the question of the place that we see for ourselves in the world and what we need in order to live a meaningful life. For quite a while now, a meaningful life in America has meant acquisition of things and cheap energy, and we associate that with freedom. We do not see that it's really a form of dependence and slavery. So, I see the potential for a much greater level of freedom and spiritual fulfillment and social cohesion, and restoration of balance with the natural world. This is one of the great possibilities that I see on the other side of the crisis, and whether we get to that is a question of the choices that we make now."
March 20 2006 ~
-
Knight Ridder ~ ".....An internal report from Mexico's state-owned oil company, leaked last month, said water and gas were seeping into the massive offshore oil field in the southern Gulf of Mexico. That development would reduce Mexican oil output, which would be bad news for U.S. consumers. Mexico is the second-largest supplier of oil to the U.S. market.
The timing's bad. Global oil supplies are tight, and there's growing concern about several other important suppliers of oil to the United States. Unrest grows in Nigeria, conventional oil production is dropping in Canada and Venezuela is taking an increasingly belligerent anti-American tone.
In his State of the Union address Jan. 31, President Bush vowed to wean Americans from Middle East oil. But the threat of accelerated decline in Mexican oil output means other suppliers will have to pick up the slack, and the world's largest oil reserves remain in the Middle East.
Cantarell is one of the world's great oil fields; only Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field is larger. It was discovered in 1976 and has been a workhorse ever since.
"It's a supergiant field, so when you have a supergiant field declining, it's very difficult to compensate for that," said Adrian Lajous, a veteran oilman and the director of state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) from 1995 to 1999. "Cantarell has peaked and has started its decline." ....."
March 15 2006 ~
-
Energy Bulletin ~ US Army: Peak Oil and the Army's future
~
"The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly
drawing to a close," according to a recently released US Army strategic
report. The report posits that a peak in global oil production looks likely
to be imminent, with wide reaching implications for the US Army and society
in general....
....Since energy resources are unevenly distributed around the world, and the impacts of energy consumption have global reach in both environmental and political terms, any meaningful review of energy-related issues must take a global perspective. This work synopsizes world and national energy issues (including energy source options, resource stocks, and future prognosis) in the context of how Army installations need to respond to changing trends. This report presents implications of actions that may be taken in response to the national and world energy situation, to help the Army to make informed choices on energy utilization that will contribute to sustaining the Army's mission. "
March 14 2006 ~
-
Prweb.com ~ "....new chart shows "Hubbert's Peak" for the world is arriving on schedule. ..."The 50th anniversary is a wakeup call," says Michael Poremba of SF Informatics. "It's crucial for citizens to have a general understanding of key issues. The global oil peak will impact everything from our economy to foreign policy to how we manage our daily lives."
Poremba continued, "I cannot overstate the value of introducing the concept of peak oil to friends and family. This colorful chart makes obtuse numbers clear and understandable. When you look at this poster, it changes how you think about the world."
Copies of The Oil Age poster can be purchased at www.oilposter.org. To date, over 1,600 posters have been donated to teachers worldwide. And thanks to Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, the poster has been distributed to every member of the U.S. Congress.
For more information about Kenneth Deffeyes' oil-production estimates, visit www.princeton.edu/hubbert/the-peak.html.
A new web site dedicated to Hubbert's legacy is now at www.mkinghubbert.com.
March 3 2006 ~
-
Forbes ~ Oil prices rose Friday on lingering fears of supply disruptions out of Nigeria and Iran. .... traders remain concerned about threats to oil facilities from Nigerian militants, Iran's nuclear ambitions and terrorist strikes on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
Talks between European Union negotiators and Iran over its nuclear ambitions broke up Friday without any agreement, ministers said.
Tehran has insisted it wants uranium enrichment only to generate electricity, not for nuclear arms, but the United States and its allies have argued that this is not the case.
The talks came three days before an International Atomic Energy Agency board meeting to begin Monday. The board's recommendation to the U.N. Security Council, which has the power to impose sanctions, will likely help determine its immediate course of action on Iran, the No. 2 oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
"The fear there is that if there's a sanction proposed and recommended, it's only a matter of time before Iran plays the oil card," said John Kilduff, analyst at Fimat USA. "That's what's keeping us at around $63 a barrel."
March 2 2006 ~
-
Resource Investor.com ~ "......(Lord) Browne is arguing for those countries to be opened up to major oil companies. This, he says is not a product of peak oil' but instead about demand growth. He used the speech to make his strongest attack yet on the subject, one he calls "a myth."
"[Peak oil] is a myth you will find reinforced in most newspapers every day [that oil and gas are running out, and that we are walking towards the edge of the cliff.] I went into one bookshop here in London and found that there was a special display of 14 different books published over the last year with titles such as The End of Oil' and Twilight in the Desert.' The idea that oil is running out is simply untrue. There is no physical shortage of oil or gas. The reality is that the physical resource base is strong, and the amount which we can recover from that base is being expanded by technology all the time," he said.
However this pronouncement by Browne does not seem to tally with latest reported figures. New technology is not increasing reserves every year for the major oil companies.
So is it peak oil, or is it a combination of sudden demand growth and an industry time lag?..."
February 9 2006 ~
-
Guardian ~ Robert Newman's
article on peak oil and global warming
"........ If we are all still in denial about the radical changes coming - and all of us still are - there are sound geological reasons for our denial. We have lived in an era of cheap, abundant energy. There never has and never will again be consumption like we have known. The petroleum interval, this one-off historical blip, this freakish bonanza, has led us to believe that the impossible is possible, that people in northern industrial cities can have suntans in winter and eat apples in summer. But much as the petroleum bubble has got us out of the habit of accepting the existence of zero-sum physical realities, it's wise to remember that they never went away. You can either have capitalism or a habitable planet. One or the other, not both."
warmwell may not be able to be updated for a few days. In the meantime, see the news website http://www.peak-oil-news.info
February 8 2006 ~
-
BBC
~
Sweden says it aims to completely wean itself off oil within 15 years, without building new nuclear plants. BBC
February 6 2006 ~
-
BBC News ~
Fuel costs 'drag' Ryanair
profits
Ryanair sees its profits hit by rising fuel costs in the
third quarter of the financial year, despite carrying more passengers.
Euro gas pipe 'hits UK consumer' UK consumers paid £300m more for gas this winter because of problems with European gas supplies, British Gas owner Centrica says.
More fuel woe for Japan Airlines Japan Airlines remains mired in the red in the third quarter of its financial year, hit by the soaring cost of fuel.
February 5 2006 ~
-
Sunday Times ~ Lovelock is no eco-nut with personal hygiene issues: he supports nuclear power and once worked for MI5 as "Q" inventing whizzo gadgets to spy on Ruskies.
So his warning about rising sea levels caused by global warming puts into alarming relief sedate conferences on climate change and George Bush's aspiration to cut back a teensy-weensy bit on Middle East oil. Lovelock's intervention has been described as a "wake-up call", but could be termed a "thank you and good-night call".
"It is much too late for insulating your house and all that," says Lovelock. "Fifty years ago it would have helped. What we need now is sustainable retreat." As he concedes, it is a "gloomy" prognosis from an otherwise cheery man, born working-class in Brixton but now pottering about a converted Devon mill.
Yet in 20 years he predicts fuel will grow so short it will be rationed. "It will be like world war two," he says, eyes twinkling. He remembers. He looks puckishly in the pink, chomping on fruit cake baked by his much younger American wife Sandy, but Lovelock knows he is also running out of time: he is 86.
As for London: "There was a three-year period the Thames barrier wasn't used at all, but in a recent year it went up 24 times. Why isn't government planning to rehouse people? London is sinking anyway, so global warming is lethal."
February 2 2006 ~
-
Washington Post ~ (quoting Ryan Lizza)
".....His 'addicted to oil' line will garner lots of headlines, but his actual oil-independence plan is so modest--tens of millions of dollars in a two trillion dollar annual budget--that it is barely worth mentioning..."
February 1 2006 ~
-
EVWorld.com ~ ".....After all, look where we are at the moment
-
Consumption of oil on a global basis is exceeding new discoveries by a ratio of as high as 4:1. For every new barrel of oil discovered -- like the recent 600 million barrel oil field in the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea -- the world is consuming 4 barrels from old fields.
-
World oil production capacity is at 84 million barrels of oil a day.
-
All of the world's 1,400 oil exploration rigs are spoken for and the average age of experienced oil field workers is approaching 50.
-
Russia's recent shenanigans towards Ukraine and Georgia suggests they are not going to be a very dependable, much less compliant world supplier.
-
Certainly the political climates in Venezuela and Nigeria aren't all that encouraging to U.S. interests in those regions.
-
Oil and gas production in North America continues to fall.
-
Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, is a powder keg ready to explode. A war with Iran could send oil prices from $95 to $150 a barrel, or higher.
-
Efforts to restore Iraq's oil production continue to be disrupted by the ongoing insurgency there.
-
China and India are polling their efforts to line up new oil contracts in direct competition with the West.
January 29 2006 ~
-
Alternet.org ~
"......Alternative fuels can generate an energy surplus large enough to power the U.S. and world economies, but to do so the infrastructure for the alternative fuel needs to be larger than the current oil infrastructure. If 1 Btu (British thermal unit) of oil could be used to extract 50 Btu of new oil from the ground (which was the ratio at the U.S. peak), most alternatives currently produce 2-10 Btu per Btu invested. The infrastructure for such alternatives would need to be five to twenty-five times larger than the current oil infrastructure.
The expanded infrastructure requires a timely transition. If the infrastructure for the alternative energy source is put in place before the peak arrives, the energy used to do so will have a relatively small impact on non-energy sectors. Conversely, if society waits until the peak, constructing the large infrastructure for the alternative fuel will siphon large amounts of energy from the non-energy sectors of the economy at the very time that the total supply and energy surplus from oil is shrinking. In short, society has to pay the costs for the transition. We can pay them now, while we have oil in the bank, or we can pay them later, when our oil bank account is emptying.
Economists often assure us that the competitive market will induce the needed investments in a timely fashion. I am less sanguine. The markets' ability to anticipate the timing of the peak and the rate of decline is limited by a lack of transparency in the world oil market....."
January 28 2006 ~
- Raise the hammer.org ~ "......With the ugly war of words between Iran and the United States over Iran's nuclear energy program (which, by the way, is in full compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty), investors worry a diplomatic or military escalation will provoke Iran to halt its oil production.
........
If Iran cuts off all, or even some, of its 2.5 million barrels a day, the rest of the world will not be able to make up the shortfall and oil importing countries have already dipped heavily into their strategic reserves. Most analysts agree oil will spike over $100 a barrel, shocking the global economy.
...... Kuwait's official oil reserve, at 99 billion barrels or 10 percent of the global total, is about 51 billion barrels higher than its own internal records show.......
That 51 billion barrels is more than the oil remaining in the United States and the North Sea combined. The earth's official oil reserve just fell by about five percent...." full
January 27 2006 ~
- Energy Bulletin ~
"....let us be clear: overshoot created by a lack of energy means the
human population of the earth will shrink to a sustainable number.
Although anthropologists tell us that humans are capable of appraising their circumstances and acting prudently to save their society, the signs that such foresight is occurring on anywhere near the scale it needs to occur are not apparent. On the other hand, evolutionary biologists (Morrison, 2002) appear certain that our genes have led us into plague species status, which means that we are overrunning the planet with people and pollution. This genetic explanation implies that there is little we can do to save ourselves as a species.
Abiding by the criteria I laid out at the beginning of this section of overshoot, I think a die-off of human life --as well as great destruction to the earth's biosphere -- possible within this century . Oil is the initial resource to become critically scarce. But as most of you know we face a plethora of interrelated environmental crises, what E.O. Wilson terms the "Bottleneck" humanity must pass through to survive what it has wrought. .." full
January 26 2006 ~
-
Reuters ~
January 26 2006 ~
-
RegisterGuard.com ~ Heinberg recommends developing local food security, ensuring local water and energy supplies, and improving a community's capacity to provide locally for essential goods and services. Further, he urged changes in the very way we live - such as mixed-use urban redevelopment, reduced dependence on automobiles and less use of all natural resources.
Later that day, at the Eugene Hilton, 800 people heard Heinberg's riveting presentation, and another 300 to 400 were turned away for lack of space. Interest in peak oil is growing locally and worldwide. Companies such as Chevron and Shell advertise their peak oil worries in national magazines. As a community, we would be ill-advised to passively wait to see what happens. Strategies for responding to peak oil merge with many of Eugene's community goals such as conservation, supporting the local economy and smart land use. We can advance both at the same time.
January 25 2006 ~
-
BBC ~ ".....Oil workers' unions in Nigeria have threatened to withdraw members from the main oil-producing region unless the government moves to improve security.
The instability has led to a 10% fall in Nigeria's oil production. The country is Africa's leading oil exporter and the fifth-biggest source of US oil imports, but despite its wealth, many Nigerians live in abject poverty."
January 25 2006 ~
-
Bloomberg ~ Prices retreated after rising to the highest in almost five months yesterday on concern about Iran's resumption of research. Iran warned on Jan. 19 of a world oil crisis if sanctions are imposed. Russia and China, which as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council can veto any action against Iran, have commercial interests in the country.
January 22 2006 ~
-
ABC7news ~ Saudi King Expanding Trade Ties With China
"BEIJING (AP) - Saudi King Abdullah arrived in China on Sunday for talks with top leaders on possible cooperation in oil and energy security, a trip reflecting expanding commercial ties between the two countries.....
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said Thursday the leaders were expected to discuss energy cooperation, anti-terrorism, politics, economics, culture, health and telecommunications. He had no information about possible energy deals to be signed.
Trade between the two countries much of it Saudi oil bought by China grew by 59 percent in the first 11 months of 2005 to $14 billion, ...."
January 21 2006 ~
-
Independent UK ~"...... The bottom line for Klare is this. "Any eruption of ethnic or political violence in these areas could do more than entrap our forces there. It could lead to a deadly confrontation between the world's military powers." Because obviously, in a world as enduringly addicted to oil as ours is, others are going to be looking for their own supplies.
Russia and China will be among them.
As one global-security analyst recently put it: "I am afraid that over the years we will see China become more involved in Middle East politics. And they will want to have access to oil by cutting deals with corrupt dictatorships in the region, and perhaps providing components of weapons of mass destruction, ballistic missiles and other things they have been involved with, and that could definitely put them on a collision course with the United States."
Oil dependency could yet prove to be the route to a Third World War. The stress associated with an unforeseen early topping point surely makes that horrific prospect more, not less, likely.
Humans are good at staying Humans are good at staying loyal to their theocracies, and a hundred years of fossil fuel addiction has created impressive theocracies. However, as Einstein said, you can't solve the world's problems with the same thinking that created them. We have to think outside the box. That means giving renewable energy, alternative fuels, energy efficiency and storage technologies the space they need to grow explosively...." Read in full
January 20 2006 ~
-
Reuters: Top News "Nigeria oil hostage-takers warn against rescue bid
LAGOS (Reuters) - Four foreign oil workers held hostage by Nigerian militants will not be hurt if authorities do not mount a rescue attempt, the kidnappers said on Thursday, pledging a new wave of major attacks on oil installations soon. "
January 18 2006 ~
-
Guardian letters ~ "The Iranian crisis is part of a wider, global crisis: the end of the cheap oil era.
- "....oil is a finite resource and the development of alternative energy sources is a legitimate concern for all nations. Tony Blair has signalled that he is in favour of developing a new generation of nuclear power stations to meet Britain's energy gap. He is also in favour of developing a new generation of nuclear weapons - the rationale being that although the UK has no nuclear-armed enemies at present, we may have in the future.
There is little reason to trust the Iranian government and one might infer that it is developing nuclear weapons to deter attacks from its nuclear-armed enemies, Israel and the US. But is it not disingenuous for the UK to attack Iran for employing the same logic to the problems of energy and defence as we do? The Iranian crisis is part of a wider, global crisis: the end of the cheap oil era. We are at a historical cross roads - one path leads to an era of nuclear proliferation, resource wars and possible systemic collapse; the other demands a massive commitment to developing renewable energy resources, nuclear disarmament and positive systemic change.
Dan Welch Manchester
January 17 2006 ~
-
Independent ~ Shell may pull out of Niger Delta after 17 die in boat raid
...... the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Mend) claimed responsibility for the recent spate of attacks in the region, including a raid on 11 January at Shell's EA offshore platform in which four foreigners were kidnapped, and a subsequent explosion that ruptured a major oil pipeline. The group advised oil workers to leave the delta, which produces almost all Nigeria's 2.5 million barrels a day of oil.
"It must be clear that the Nigerian government cannot protect your workers or assets. Leave our land while you can or die in it," the group said in an e-mail statement. "Our aim is to totally destroy the capacity of the Nigerian government to export oil."
Independent ~ Oil price rises on Iran worries and rebel attacks in Nigeria.....Stephen Lewis, the chief economist at Monument Securities in London, said Nigeria and Iran together supplied about 8 per cent of global oil output. "If only a fraction of this production were to be withheld from the market, the impact on the crude price would be dramatic, such is the narrow margin between global supply and demand in 2006."
January 15 2006 ~
-
monstersand critics.com ~ " ..Teheran on Sunday said that economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear programmes would spark an international oil crisis, IRIB national news television reported on its website.
Finance Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari told IRIB that Iran was in a strategic, geographical region and any disruption to its political and economic status quo would spark a regional crisis and drastically push up oil prices. ....
The minister doubted whether the West would adopt such a course as 'economic sanctions against Iran would harm Western interests more than Iran's'. ...
observers believe Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz and obstruct global oil exports from the Persian Gulf in addition to curtailing cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, an option already approved by Iran's parliament. "
January 15 2006 ~
-
The Star.com ~ "Kuwait's Emir Jaber dies, crown prince ailing....The illness in the past few years of both Jaber and Saad had sparked concerns at home and abroad over who would rule the OPEC nation, which sits on one-tenth of the world's oil reserves and was the main launchpad for the 2003 U.S.-led-invasion of Iraq. ..."
January 13 2006 ~
-
Oregan Daily ~".......Heinberg said he is working on a book about oil depletion protocol. This proposal, initially developed by Irish geologist Colin J. Campbell, holds that no country shall produce oil above its current depletion rate and each country importing oil shall reduce its imports to the world depletion rate.
........
Throughout his speech, Heinberg emphasized the role of communities and volunteer groups in dealing with Peak Oil, adding that, as in Hurricane Katrina, federal response to the problem will probably not be sufficient.
.........
Ways to prepare, Heinberg said, include designing communities where people can walk to get what they need, keeping local farmers in business and manufacturing goods locally rather than importing.
...."
January 12 2006 ~
-
Alternet.org ~ "...The most intriguing thing about this raging debate over whether oil production will soon peak -- and put an end to the go-go days of the petroleum age -- is that it's occurring at all. The fact that a century into the age of oil, and with the global economy dependent on $3 trillion worth of this black liquid each year, we don't know how much is left, is extraordinary.
It turns out that most of the forecasters who are responsible for the long-term energy projections on which private and public decision makers rely -- from Wal-Mart to the International Energy Agency -- have been on automatic pilot, assuming that whatever the future level of demand, the oil companies will be able to extract sufficient oil to meet it. You don't have to be a card-carrying member of the "peak oil" school that has gathered behind former Shell geologist Colin Campbell to see that this is a dangerous assumption..."
January 4 2006 ~
-
Yorkshire Post ~ "The key word is energy. Without adequate, reliable and competitive supplies of energy, any nation is in trouble. On this basis, the UK is in serious difficulty. The immediate problem of keeping the lights on and industry turning in extremely cold weather - and last week we were on a knife edge - is entirely of our own making.
With oil and gas pouring from every North Sea orifice, governments behaved like foolish virgins. They did not invest in the future. Now North Sea production is past its peak and declining steadily. For the first time in our history we are net importers of energy...."
December 27 2005 ~
-
Syriana Review ~"....To fully appreciate "Syriana's" storyline, it's important to understand that the world currently consumes 80 million barrels of oil a day, with the globe's richest and most powerful empire (that's the U.S.) burning up 20 million of those barrels. Understand, further, that the United States reached "peak oil" (maximum domestic production capacity) in 1970, when it produced 10 million barrels of oil a day. Now, as U.S. supply dwindles, the country currently produce only 5 million domestic barrels a day (while consuming 20 million, remember), for a yearly consumption total of 7 billion barrels, while possessing only 28 billion barrels in strategic reserves. That leaves fifteen million barrels of oil the U.S. needs each day that we can't produce ourselves. If oil-producing nations (say Iran or Venezuela) cut the U.S. off tomorrow, we'd have only four years of oil and natural gas left. ...
..."Syriana" is probably the closest Hollywood will ever come to presenting on honest picture of our Peak Oil dilemma. Don't miss it." http://towardfreedom.com/home/content/view/712/
December 27 2005 ~
-
Forbes ~ "Japan will end its four-month release of strategic oil reserves on Jan. 4 ...Japan has been shipping oil from its reserves to the United States ....Japan has kept an emergency stockpile equivalent to 67 days of imports over the coming 30-day period. Japan normally keeps a 70-day minimum. The three-day difference is equal to about 10 million barrels.
It is the third time Japan has drawn on its emergency reserves, following the 1979 oil crisis and the Gulf War in 1991. The price of crude is 19 percent below its all-time high of US$70.85 after Hurricane Katrina made landfall on Aug. 30. The price for light, sweet crude for February delivery slipped 82 cents to US$57.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in Asian electronic trading midmorning Tuesday in Singapore."
December 23 2005 ~
-
FarmandRanchGuide.com ~ "....keynote speaker Paul Roberts delivered to those attending the 2005 Renewable Energy Summit on Dec. 12 at the Ramada Plaza Suites in Fargo.....
historically there has been a crude oil surplus each day of 4 to 10 million barrels....that figure has shrunk to only 0.5 to 1.5 million barrels of surplus production.
"If they have a revolution in Venezuela, or some African nation that exports a lot of oil, and we could see an immediate shortage of crude oil supplies," he said.
He contends this precarious situation is widely understood, yet no action is being taken to correct it, since in the past a shortage of crude oil has always been a short situation that fixed itself eventually.
But, he said, the problem is not going to fix itself this time.
Instead the situation will only get worse and the only solution to the crude oil shortage is to find ways to conserve oil and look for alternative fuel sources.
However, at this time, curbing demand doesn't hold out much hope. China recently passed Japan as the second largest user of oil in the world and Roberts expects their thirst for oil will only continue to grow...."
December 22 2005 ~
-
Reuters ~ Democrats kill Alaska Oil Drilling in Defence Bill "It took a lot of guts for people to stand up for ANWR," said Democrat Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. Drilling opponents were "fighting one of the most powerful senators" and open to criticism from political opponents accusing them of blocking funds for U.S. troops in Iraq, he said.
"Today the Senate gave the oil industry and (Sen.) Stevens the lump of coal they deserved," said Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club. It and other green groups say the same amount of oil recoverable from ANWR could be conserved if Congress imposed stricter fuel standards on new vehicles....
ANOTHER ATTEMPT IN 2006
"We'll continue to push to get that provision passed," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. Republican Pete Domenici of New Mexico said he would try again to unlock ANWR by putting the drilling language in filibuster-proof budget legislation in the spring. "Gasoline prices will begin climbing again next year," he said. Drilling opponents said they won't give up either.
"We will remain vigilant next year to make sure that the country focuses its energy on real solutions to our overdependence on foreign oil and not Christmas packages for oil companies," said Democrat Maria Cantwell of Washington.
The White House, which sees ANWR drilling as crucial to the U.S. oil supply, said it was not giving up.
December 20 2005 ~
-
BBC ~ "Unidentified gunmen have blown up a pipeline in Nigeria's oil-producing Niger Delta region, officials say.
Eight people have been killed and many more are missing after the pipeline was destroyed with dynamite, said the chairman of the local authority.
Oil company Shell said it had shut down two wells supplying the pipeline.
Nigeria is Africa's major oil producer but Niger Delta residents say they have not benefited from their oil wealth...."
December 16 2005 ~
(PRWEB) ~ December 16, 2005 -- Our tragic reliance on oil is grimly portrayed in the new film Syriana, which depicts $20 per gallon gas, skyrocketing food costs, and escalating global terrorism in the face of declining fossil fuel reserves. With respect to energy scarcity, the plot of the movie is much more realistic than most people realize. Ever-higher oil costs will become the norm for Americans as world production passes its inevitable peak, which many analysts think will occur within two to five years.....Syriana, which The New York Times calls "one of the best geopolitical thrillers in a very long time," debuts today in theaters. For further information on peak oil and Post Carbon Institute's "Peak Oil: The Reality Behind Syriana Campaign," visit http://www.postcarbon.org/syriana. "
December 13 2005 ~
New York Times ~ RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - The ultimate oil state is seeking to shift its economy away from oil.
Saudi Arabia may be experiencing its third oil boom in three decades but it is also undergoing an economic revolution that its leaders hope will finally insulate it from the oil producer's curse: the next price collapse......Oil sales account for 40 percent of the economy and about 90 percent of government revenue. But that reliance on a volatile commodity - with big booms but also big busts - is also a problem that the royal family is determined to overcome.
The nation's leaders, of course, have made similar vows before to translate their vast oil wealth into a more diversified economy. Will this time really be different?
There are signs that it may be....
.....Abdallah Dabbagh, the president of Ma'aden, told a group of reporters on a recent visit here that within 10 to 15 years he expected Saudi Arabia to dominate the fertilizer business. "The world will depend on Saudi Arabia for its food the same way it depends on its energy today," he said......."
December 5 2005 ~
BBC ~ "Oil prices are nearing $60 a barrel as snowstorms in the US North East have boosted demand for heating oil.
US light crude rose 50 cents to $59.82 a barrel in Asian trading on Monday, having closed at $59.32 on Friday.
Arctic weather in the US North East has pushed the cost of heating oil, used to heat most homes, close to record levels.
The increase came despite a promise by oil cartel Opec to keep pumping petroleum at maximum capacity...
...The pressure on oil means the 11-nation Opec producers' group is unlikely to scale back output when it meets in Kuwait on 12 December.
Production is already two million barrels a day beyond the 28 million barrel quota.
As well as reassuring markets that production would not flag, Opec president Sheikh Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah said oil importing states had to build refinery capacity, a problem especially in the US.."
November 29 2005 ~
Stuff.co.nz ~ Speaking yesterday at the trans-Tasman Solar 2005 energy conference hosted by the University of Otago, Professor Aleklett of Upssala University, Sweden, who is president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, warned that big problems would result from the peaking of world oil production .
A combination of declining supply from existing oil fields, and rising global demand for oil meant there was already a potential shortfall of about five billion barrels of oil a year.
Beyond 2008, a growing gap between supply and demand was likely to be felt, he said.
Many nations faced a "democratic dilemma" over dwindling oil supplies.
What was now needed was for politicians to warn about potential problems, and to advise that things might be even worse unless necessary changes were made...."
November 27 2005 ~
Sunday Telegraph ~
"......recent surge in oil prices. But it applies to natural gas, too. China's total energy demand is forecast to grow at 3.2 per cent a year over the next 20 years, but its demand for natural gas is expected to rise at 12 per cent a year. Beijing may be a long way from Birmingham, but both are potential customers for the Russian gas behemoth, Gazprom.
This, in short, is about more than a cold snap. As the most densely populated parts of Asia start to catch up economically with the equally densely populated north-west of Europe, there is going to be a real energy squeeze. Indeed, it is already upon us. This squeeze has profound implications. .."
November 24 2005 ~
Guardian ~ With its valuable oil, gas and mineral reserves and authoritarian political tradition, Uzbekistan is a typical battleground in what is fast becoming an epic, three-way struggle for power, influence and resources in post-Soviet central Asia. "Its the world's last vacuum," said Kalman Mizsei, regional director of the United Nations development programme. "The region has become a playground for rival geopolitical interests."
November 24 2005 ~
PRWEB.com ~
".....Richard Katz of SF Informatics says the holiday season is an ideal time to introduce the concept of peak oil to friends and family. "People take a look at this poster and it changes how they think about the world," Katz says, adding that the poster makes for a thought provoking gift and timely gift. "It's an antidote to the usual array of consumer merchandise," he said.
Copies of The Oil Age poster can be purchased at www.oilposter.org. Orders received before December 10th should arrive before December 24th (excluding the media mail shipping option). Each sale helps fund the no-cost distribution of the poster to high schools, universities and non-profit institutions worldwide. To date, over 1,100 posters have been donated to teachers worldwide. And thanks to Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, the poster has been distributed to every member of the U.S. Congress.
For more information about Kenneth Deffeye's oil-production estimates, visit www.princeton.edu/hubbert/the-peak.html
"
November 23 2005 ~
Fromthe Wilderness.com ~ The House of Representatives now has a Peak Oil caucus. That means there is a conscious minority within that body who have recognized the crisis. Some of them probably understand it better than others, and perceive that no combination of alternative energy sources will ever allow what Dick Cheney calls "the American way of life" to continue. But they will educate each other and, we can hope, the rest of the House. The Caucus was founded by Roscoe Bartlett, whose leadership on the Peak Oil issue is unparalleled across the entire government today.
November 20 2005 ~
ASPO-USA.com ~
"We are almost through the age of oil, it will be just a blip on the long progression of mankindthe question is what kind of future do we bequeath to our grandchildren."
U.S. Representative Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD)
That was the message delivered and the challenge presented to a sold out audience of more than 425 businessmen, students, members of industry, policy makers, and academics from around the country who gathered at ASPO-USA's first annual World Peak Oil Conference in Denver, Colorado this past Thursday...A longer summary of the conference and the proceedings will appear on the ASPO-USA website in the upcoming weeks."
November 18 2005 ~
FT.com ~ The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries , the cartel that controls 40 per cent of world oil exports, will lift a veil of secrecy and begin regularly to reveal how much oil it is actually pumping..China and India, the fastest growing major oil consumers, will also supply consumption and storage data for the first time.
November 17 2005 ~
Online Opinion.com ~ ".....
Oil is the supreme example of compact energy, so we have all enjoyed the abundance of "spare" energy left over. As the easy stuff is used up, we arrive at the point where we must finally expend a whole barrel of oil to produce a barrel of oil. Approaching this point, rising oil prices simply express the diminishing proportion of "spare" energy left over for distribution.
Once the net energy return is zero, it's over ... no matter how much oil is tantalisingly "still down there". For the same reasons, less accessible or poor quality oil deposits can be very short-lived. At the finish, the price of oil is immaterial. One cent or one million dollars a barrel - it's over.
Yet in these twilight days of easy oil we have economists who are saying to themselves, "If we use one $40 barrel of oil today to produce half a $160 barrel tomorrow, we will have doubled our money - gee, that's good business!"
That simple example shows the gulf that can exist between economic dogma and physical reality. It is not only ridiculous, but adds a dangerous twist to the simple notion that rising oil prices will regulate consumption. Add the holy commandments of corporate profit and we have globalised self-delusion. Figure it out; the fingerprints of Texan oilmen are all over the corpse of Iraq....
.Suppose, just suppose, that the (global) depletion of oil and gas is with us here and now. Let's say it's no longer a poisoned apple to be left for the grandkids, but something we must face right now. For example, we know that UK North Sea oil and gas production peaked in 1999. We know that thanks to Thatcher's free-market policies, the deposit was plundered hastily and sold cheaply. Didn't they know there is not enough energy in a $1,000 note to boil a cup of tea? The UK will soon have to go cap-in-hand to other countries in the hope of sourcing natural gas.
We know that US natural gas is critically depleted and that they depend on it for electricity, fertiliser and a host of other processes. We know that they are drawing down the Canadian reserves using the free trade agreement. We know that the US administration is meddling in the affairs of Venezuela and other neighbours because the fear is that the gas and oil (and profits) found there might be wasted on the indigenous populations.
We know our Prime Minister has offered the warm cloak of Australian and Timorese gas to the shoulders of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in California. It must be a comfort to know that US troops are based near the Darwin gas terminal......Mining is where the wishful thinking of economists meets the reality of nature. "
November 14/15 2005 ~
Alertnet.com ~
"..............Home heating costs are projected to be 40-50% higher this winter than last.
As prices go even higher, and with actual scarcities of fuel, people will experience difficulties commuting, and the maintenance of our far-flung food distribution systems may become problematic.
On top of all this, oil is a strategic resource: as supplies become scarce, there is increasing likelihood of international conflict.
To avoid the worst-case scenario we must begin today to reduce our dependence on oil. The effort must have top priority. It must focus primarily on reducing demand, and only secondarily on producing large quantities of alternative transportation fuels.
.....without a Protocol -- essentially a system for global oil rationing -- we will see extremely volatile prices that will undermine the economies of all nations, and all industries and businesses. We will also see increasing international competition for oil likely leading to conflict; and if a general oil war were to break out, everyone would lose. Given the alternatives, the Protocol clearly seems preferable.
."Read in full
November 12/13 2005 ~
Durango Herald ~ ".........inaugural national conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. The event drew oil company workers, bankers, environmentalists, students and professors. About 430 people attended the Thursday and Friday gathering, which featured two dozen presentations and a film festival, with clips from movies such as "Oil Storm" and "Escape from Suburbia."...........Keynote speaker Matt Simmons, a noted critic of the Saudi Arabian oil industry, dismissed the importance of Colorado's shale. "Oil shale is real. It's right on the other side of the Rockies," Simmons said. "But they don't have a clue, technologically, how to use it." Faith in uninvented technologies won't help either, Simmons said." "This is not Silicon Valley, where you can invent stuff in a month or two," he said. Business and political leaders need to prepare now for falling oil supplies, Simmons said. "If we ignore the issue, we will live in a far darker world,"he said.
November 11 2005 ~
Global Public media ~
"England's Prince Charles convened and keynoted a dialogue in San Francisco on "Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Business Action" on Nov. 7. The University of Cambridge Programme for Industry organized the event and invited 300 high-level guests from corporations, government, and non-profit groups to attend....he Prince and his gathering provided increased international legitimacy to the growing acceptance of the importance of Peak Oil and global warming.
"The real power of a royal visit," according to an Associated Press story the day after the Prince Charles's gathering, "is the global media that follow the visitors and envelops everyone around them."."
November 10 2005 ~
Independent ~ "Plans to drill for oil in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge have been knocked off course after the measure was forced out of a crucial budget bill on Capitol Hill. A plan that would have allowed individual states to lift a ban on drilling for oil on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts was also dropped. How long the reprieve for the Arctic Refuge will last is unclear. .."
November 10 2005 ~
Independent ~ "Sir Phil Watts escapes scot-free from Shell reserves fiasco......No doubt there is some compelling legal reason for letting Sir Phil off the hook. If in the end there is no case to answer, there's no case to answer. Yet to the outside world it looks like double standards: one rule for the little guy, pour encourager les autres, and another entirely for the higher, more powerful, echelons of British industry..."
November 9 2005 ~
energybulletin ~ "......the fine small city of Burlington, in Vermont. It has its own in-town farming district, the Intervaleland that once served as the town dump and now has about five hundred acres of vegetables and berries and grains, selling mostly to people who appreciate freshness, who think organically, who want to support their neighbors. The Intervale already provides 8 percent of the fresh produce that the town's residents consume, and 8 percent is not insignificant. But it still leaves 92 percent arriving by truck, boat, and plane from around the planetapples from China, say, even though Burlington lies in the Champlain Valley, one of the planet's finest apple-growing belts. In a cheap-fuel economy you can take advantage of cheap Chinese labor and sell Chinese apples for a cheap forty cents. Say that the price of oil rises to the point where that apple costs fifty cents, and sixty, and seventyeach increase should make it easier to extend the Intervale farms over a few hundred more acres. Oil at a hundred dollars a barrel means fewer bananas and more local apples and blueberries. But that process needn't wait until shortage requires ituntil we're scrambling. With a little lead time, we can put in place the no-regrets kinds of policies that make sense for a less spendthrift society....."
November 8 2005 ~
Guardian ~ "......Mr Campbell has become the lead architect of peak-oil whistleblowing in and around the oil industry.
Mr Campbell was at the Rimini event, and had with him the draft of a protocol written in the language governments would need if they wanted to defuse the peak-oil crisis. Advocating the simple and achievable expedient of demand management at the same rate as global depletion, it was to be called the Rimini protocol.
Mr Campbell's understanding, along with fellow advocates like Mr Meacher, was that the launch of the protocol was to be a main feature of the summit. Indeed, the organisers told him that Mikhail Gorbachev was due to launch the protocol in a plenary speech.
Mr Meacher had earlier appealed publicly for the organisers to give the protocol maximum publicity, saying that the peak-oil crisis would unleash an economic apocalypse if governments didn't act.
It was not to be. Mr Gorbechev didn't show up and Mr Campbell was not allocated a slot to speak in the main plenary. Somewhere, somehow, amid all the machinations involved in persuading the oil industry's glitterati to turn up at the event, the Rimini protocol had become sidelined.." See also the Rimini protocol
November 7 2005 ~
National Post Canada ~ ".........fish is a renewable resource and yet we still managed collectively to bungle it up. Oil is not renewable. We also have close substitutes for fish (chicken, beef, etc.). For oil we do not. Let's not kid ourselves. Peak Oil, when it happens (not if), will be a world-changing event.
We will one day find a substitute for oil (we won't have a choice), but alternatives are still decades away from fruition. If peak oil happens today, or next year, or the year after that, no amount of human ingenuity nor technology will save us. To believe otherwise is naive. This is why we believe the debate on peak oil needs to happen here and now, even if the outcome is unpleasant and alarming......"
November 3 2005 ~
Energy Bulletin.net ~ US foreign policy, petroleum and the Middle East Robert Ebel, Chairman of Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Energy Program, testified on 20 October before the Subcommittee on Near Eastern and Asian Affairs, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. The US elite are getting serious about energy, as shown in this Senate testimony by Robert Ebel, energy expert for CSIS, an influential think tank: Extract
- .".for the past 25 years or so, global surplus conditions (relative to demand) - in the case of spare oil producing capacity, global refining capacity, and in this country, natural gas production and power generation - have produced complacency and masked the critical role which energy plays in our everyday lives. It is only now when we are faced with conditions that threaten its reliability, security and affordability that we begin to more fully appreciate its importance.
As a consequence, energy policy formulation in this and other countries over the last quarter century has been, at best, a tepid attempt at balancing conflicting or competing economic, environmental, and foreign policy objectives - along with local political concerns - rather than a serious attempt to secure sustainable supplies on a forward looking basis. That era may now be over...."
November 3 2005 ~
BP.com ~ "BP is developing the world's first industrial scale project to generate electricity using hydrogen manufactured from natural gas........ By combining separate technologies - hydrogen power generation and carbon capture and storage - in one integrated project, Decarbonised Fuels can play an important role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the main component in greenhouse gas emissions. If applied to just five per cent of the new electricity generating capacity that the world is projected to require by 2050, such schemes would have the potential to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by around one billion tonnes a year ........... Rather than being released into the atmosphere, around 90% of the carbon dioxide created during the process would be transported via pipeline and injected deep underground for enhanced oil recovery and permanent storage in geological formations...."
November 2 2005 ~
Dissident Voice.com ~ "Time magazine became the most recent mainstream publication to finally give detailed coverage to Peak Oil. Its Oct. 31 twelve-page spread on "The Future of Energy" follows major articles in USA Today, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, San Francisco Chronicle and other big city dailies in recent months. They finally mention the coming Peak Oil that many geologists have been warning us about for years. Such articles appear after two major groundbreaking cover articles on oil by National Geographic, the first in the summer of 2004. The October Esquire offered a two-page "Five Minute Guide: Oil," which begins with the question "What's peak oil'?" Time's lead article "How to Kick the Oil Habit" by Michael D. Lemonick runs four illustrated pages. Its only highlighted quotation is from Richard Heinberg, author of The Party's Over:Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Society: "Price signals come much too late, and we will endure a tremendous amount of hardship that could have been averted if we'd acted sooner." The article's sub-head recommends that people "get ready for the withdrawal symptoms." ......."
October 29th 2005 ~
Reuters: Top News ~ "Democrats criticize oil industry subsidies. House Republicans recently pushed through legislation that would give more federal subsidies to the oil industry instead of trying to help U.S. consumers cope with sharply higher energy prices, the top Democrat on the House Commerce Committee said on Saturday..."
October 26th 2005 ~
Energy Central.com ~ "......Rising natural gas prices are giving developers new incentives to find alternative energy sources. Coal-bed methane is one of those alternatives. Already, consumers are seeing the benefits of this fuel source. But, if it is to be fully developed, then it is imperative that the environmental consequences associated with drilling those wells be properly addressed. ...
coal-bed methane....the environmental consequences of production could threaten this potential.
Coal-bed methane is a natural gas-like fuel associated with coal fields. But, production of it is accompanied by significant challenges that include the prevention of unintended loss of methane to the atmosphere during underground mining and the disposal of large quantities of water, sometimes saline, that are unavoidably produced with the gas."
October 24th 2005 ~
Energycentral.com ~ "........Russia is working toward achieving its goal, says Siberian Energy's Zaiken. Like others, he predicts that the country will become the world's top oil producer by 2009. Production there is growing by 10 percent annually. More access to Russian oil would ease the supply crunch and hence the current high prices. At the same time, the United States wants to wean itself from Middle Eastern oil dependence.
"Saudi Arabia is under constant threat," he says. "I'm sure the U.S. will bring in more oil and especially more liquefied natural gas from Russia. The Russian government is ready to take it to the next level. Hopefully, the American government and big business will recognize that Russia brings a transparent structure to the table and we can discuss more mega-projects with Westerners. Russian assets are undervalued right now......"
October 23rd 2005 ~
Smartmoney.com ~" Whatever happened to ANWR?
Depending on which side of the debate over drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge numbers come from, estimates of reserves there range from mammoth to moderate. But a 2004 study by the Department of Energy concluded ANWR resources would only slightly reduce dependence on foreign oil. The mean estimate of ANWR's reserves, 10.4 billion barrels, is the amount the U.S. burns through in about twenty-two months. "It's the addict wanting to sell the family jewels for another fix," says Bart Anderson, coeditor of the online Energy Bulletin. "The problem is addiction."
5. Should we be scared?
Yes. And it's not just Rapture nuts who say so. When asked about the coming energy shortage in 2003, Matt Simmons, Bush advisor and CEO of the energy investment bank Simmons & Company International, replied, "I don't think there is [a solution]. The solution is to pray." Even the oil-glutted Saudis have a saying: "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son rides in a jet. His son will ride a camel."...
6. When do we start waiting in line for gas?If peak oil is valid, your car will soon be the least of your worries. (Collapse of the dollar, unemployment, and your ineptitude with hand tools might be of greater concern.) Nevertheless, with the "peak" comes a supply-and-demand crisis.
7. Can't we just make oil?
Synthetic oil is made from coal and other products through a process known as gasification. Already, South Africa liquefies coal to produce much of its diesel fuel. But the process is expensive and, according to one estimate, replacing conventional oil with synthetic oil at current rates of consumption would bring about the peak of U.S. coal supplies within two decades...."
October 21st 2005 ~
Forbes.com ~ "....market players also cited the weakening of Hurricane Wilma for the dip in oil prices. Damage from Wilma is expected to be limited as it appeared likely to avoid the main oil producing and refining areas around the US Gulf of Mexico. Analysts at Sucden believe becnhmark crude oil in New York will head back down to hit 55 usd a barrel and for heating oil stocks to start rising as refineries come back on line. 'If stocks do build and demand remains lower then prices could hit the 50 usd per barrel level once again later this year,' they said in a research note. But there are also other factors which may complicate the outlook. 'Any sign that heating oil stocks are not going to be sufficient and that winter in the US and Europe could lead to demand outstripping supply will send prices rapidly back up to above 60 usd,' they added."
October 20th 2005 ~
Guardian ~ "Amid forecasts from meteorologists that the country could be in for its coldest spell in more than 40 years, Sir Digby said he had again told the industry secretary, Alan Johnson, this week that Britain's limited stocks of gas reserves would run out after little more than a week of sub-zero temperatures. "If we have a harsh winter - and all the long-range weather forecasts are saying that we will - this economy, the fourth biggest in the world and the most successful in Europe, will see the switch thrown on business," Sir Digby told the Guardian.
Energy was the number one concern of CBI members, but ministers had told him not to be "alarmist" when he raised fears of a return to 1973-74, when the Conservative government responded to an Opec oil embargo and miners' industrial action by putting Britain on a three-day week.
"They have accused us of crying wolf. Well now, it's five to midnight. If it is another mild winter, that's fine, but if it's a hard winter there won't be sufficient capacity for business and to keep pensioners warm. It will back to the days of the three- and four-day weeks."...."
October 14 2005 ~
BP.com ~".......Energy security is fundamental to us all. We want to be able to cook our food, drink clean water, light and heat our homes, and drive our cars.
But the events of the early 21st century have raised unprecedented concerns over whether that security can be taken for granted - ......
The growth of global oil demand, particularly in China and the US, has led to a reduction in the normal surplus capacity from an average of 3 million barrels per day, to around 1 million barrels a day at times last year, when the output from important producing nations, for different reasons, was at risk.
.....
And energy demand is set to increase...
... We are drilling deeper, farther, and in more challenging environments such as high pressure and high temperature, deep water, or depleted zones.....we are involved in several pioneering projects to explore new technologies.....
."
October 14 2005 ~
Financial Times ~ Crude futures slid on Friday for the second successive day on data suggesting that US oil demand was slowing due to the high prices, although reports released this week by both the US department of energy and the International Energy Agency predicted a strong lift in demand in 2006.
October 12 2005 ~
Global Public media (Canada) ~ "........Presentations on peak oil, alternative fuels and the geopolitics of oil were also given at this three-day conference held at Antioch College and sponsored by Yellow Springs-based Community Service Inc. which through its Community Solution program seeks the resurgence of small local communities in an era of increasingly scarce and expensive oil.
"Peak oil will undoubtedly be tough," said Pat Murphy, the nonprofit's executive director, in his opening remarks. "We can make it tougher by trying to hang on to an out-of-date lifestyle or fighting wars for the last drops of oil."
"Our theme is the journey home," Murphy said. "Like the Bible story of the prodigal son who left his community for the lure of the big city, we find ourselves in big trouble. It's time to return to the community, make amends, clean up the mess and get back on the right path."...."
October 8 2005 ~
San Francisco Chronicle ~ " ...... the Bush administration has suddenly seen the virtues of energy conservation and begun a huge campaign -- led by a cartoon pig, the greedy "Energy Hog" -- to urge Americans to reduce their use of electricity, gasoline and natural gas.
The government's energy-saving tips, in a 34-page booklet at www.energysavers.gov,.....
....In the environmentally conscious Bay Area, many people already practice conservation as a long-standing habit.
Tony Hansen rides a small motor scooter for shopping and errands, getting 85 mpg. Irene Siegel turns off unnecessary lights, and uses public transit or a bike for most of her travel needs.
As David Leong of the Outer Richmond wrote in an e-mail:
- "The impending hydrocarbon crisis did not magically appear in the wake of natural disaster. It has been growing for decades. The only difference is that the crisis has become more obvious where Americans notice most: the pocketbook."
October 7 2005 ~
mywesttexas.com ~"......Focusing on security issues related to energy was Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr. and former CIA director R. James Woolsey.
Graham, an expert in arms control and arms disarmament, said nuclear power can be a significant source of energy in the future. Nuclear power plants are expensive to build, he acknowledged, but once built, the cost of nuclear-generated power becomes reasonable.
But, he said, "We will not be successful in using nuclear power in the way we must if we can't separate it from nuclear weapons."
"We have to have nuclear power, because China and India will industrialize, and if they decide to do so using oil and coal, we'll choke to death. Alternative sources like wind and solar can't take up the slack. This is not to say they aren't important, but they will be a small component. We've also got to move away from oil and gas because it's so expensive."
Not only is there public concern about the safety of nuclear power plants, he acknowledged, but they can foster the spread of weapons. That can be corrected, he said, by developing new nuclear technology that can't be applied to weapons. There is a new nuclear fuel based on thorium instead of uranium, and there is technology being developed to build nuclear reactors that can't be converted into weapons factories.
"Nuclear power will be centrally important to the United States economy, and the only way it can be used in the way it must be used is if we separate it from weapons," he said..."
October 5 2005 ~
mywesttexas.com ~ " Like a mid-life crisis, fuel-hungry countries worldwide are beginning to panic that the oil supply is finite, said Amos Nur, a professor of geophysics at Stanford University.
Nur is one of several experts taking part in a panel discussion titled "Whatcha Gonna Do When the Wells Run Dry? Energy, Economics and National Security" Thursday at 7:30 p.m. in the University of Texas of the Permian Basin gym.
....
"It's kind of a moment of panic. The question is how are we going to handle it," Nur said in a telephone interview. Without an investment from oil companies of 5 percent a year into finding sources of alternative fuel, our panic will be justified," he said.
Talk of alternative fuels is largely symbolic and there has never been any incentive or mechanism to conserve fossil fuels, Nur said.
Along with Nur and Woosley, panelists include Kenneth Deffeyes and Thomas Graham Jr...."
October 4 2005 ~
Juancole.com ~ ".... Sunni-Shiite (and Arab-non-Arab) relations in the Gulf are tense again, another spillover of Bush's policies. And this issue could put gasoline in the US up to $20 a gallon if it got out of hand and led to large scale pipeline sabotage."
October 3 2005 ~
DailyBreeze.com ~ ".........OPEC nations deny padding their figures but even governments are becoming openly skeptical.
British Treasury chief Gordon Brown recently urged OPEC members to "become more open and transparent" on how much oil they really have and how they plan to develop it.
Energy expert Matthew Simmons says that except for Libya, Algeria and Nigeria, OPEC countries tripled their reserve numbers in the 1980s with no supporting data.
Simmons, who advised George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign, says most OPEC nations were involved in a "proven-reserves arms race" -- overstating recoverable stocks because the organization assigned production quotas according to each country's reserves. In reality, Saudi reserves are probably closer to what they said they had 25 years ago and the same goes for most other OPEC nations, Simmons said. Middle East proven reserves are likely only a third of about 700 billion barrels being claimed, he said.
Simmons, whose Houston-based Simmons & Company investment firm guides companies in energy-related acquisitions, also dismissed claims that improved technology will increase oil recovery from reserves....."
October 2 2005 ~
FCNP.com ~ "Of the 535 members of Congress, it seems that only one, Roscoe Bartlett of western Maryland , fully appreciates the nature and seriousness of the impending peak oil crisis. Bartlett has given a series of speeches on the House floor outlining the problems ahead and scheduled a meeting to discuss peak oil face-to-face with President Bush. On Monday, he participated in an energy conference in Frederick , MD organized by his office......
Simmons characterized the present situation as the culmination of 50 years of energy planning mistakes. Only a few years ago, energy planners believed demand would peak, supply would grow, and oil would be cheap. But instead, demand grew, production costs doubled, there were few new discoveries, and reserves turned out to have been overstated.
All this led to a situation where by August 2005 spare capacity had dropped to the point that the world was effectively at 100 percent of production capacity. Then came the Hurricanes taking away more production capacity than was left to offset the damage. We do not yet know the full implications of this situation. ...." Read in full
September 30 2005 ~
From the Wilderness.com ~ Matthew Simmons "... our energy crisis didn't begin with Katrina or worsen with Rita, it got under way years ago as we laid one false assumption on top of another." The first and perhaps most egregious falsehood was basing the price of oil on political expediency, ignoring its true cost and creating what he lamented as a "false concept of cheap oil forever."
September 28 2005 ~
Independent ".....sceptics, led by the US banker Matthew Simmons, have argued that production in Saudi Arabia's known oil fields is already declining and that no major new fields have been discovered. By extension, these critics suggest the world has reached, or is about to reach, the high point of production."
MotleyFool ~ "With high energy prices and pressing concerns about supply disruptions, the arguments over the state and fate of the global oil economy keep getting more interesting by the day. For example, while Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, recently made some soothing comments at the World Petroleum Congress, plenty of people out there are far more worried.
To begin, al-Naimi claimed that there is plenty of oil available to meet future demand and that the Saudis currently have excess capacity. The problem, he said, is that there are no customers -- refineries are already running at capacity. That sets up a bizarre scenario in the markets: Some people are afraid that declining oil-production numbers presage trouble (and so oil prices go up), while others say that there's plenty of oil available but production is below capacity because there isn't enough refinery capacity to use it.
That's all well and good, but al-Naimi's other comments might be considered more controversial. In particular, he said that Saudi Arabia will boost its reserves by nearly 76%, or 200 billion barrels of oil, and increase daily production to as much as 15 million barrels per day.
The trouble with the first number is that the Saudis don't permit external audits of their reserve figures."
September 27 2005 ~
Reuters: ~ Jakarta police to deploy for "anarchic" fuel protests ..Indonesia will deploy 5,500 police in Jakarta to guard government buildings and other areas ahead of expected protests over fuel price hikes that police fear could turn "anarchic".
September 23 2005 ~
Ottawa Citizen ~ "Crude oil prices dropped for a second day Friday as traders gauged news that hurricane Rita had weakened, suggesting that damage to refinery capacity in the Gulf could be less severe than originally feared. Refineries in the projected path of the hurricane were shuttered by Friday, including facilities operated by BP PLC, Shell Oil and Exxon Mobil Corp. Nineteen of Texas' 26 refineries, with a combined daily capacity of nearly five million barrels, have been shut, according to the Energy Information Agency. However, unlike refining facilities shut down by hurricane Katrina - four of which were still out of service Friday - traders expected less damage from Rita because the Texas refineries were on higher ground than those in Louisiana...".
September 22 2005 ~
Guardian ~ "...Rita sideswiped the Florida Keys as a category 2 storm on Tuesday, causing relatively minor damage, but picked up power from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico as it tracked to the west. The eye of the hurricane was expected to move through the south-eastern Gulf overnight, and is predicted to make landfall near Galveston on Saturday morning. Its projected path passes over the largest concentration of oil refineries on the US Gulf coast, leading to the price of oil rising by more than $1 a barrel yesterday."
BBC ~ "....Crude oil prices rose in Singapore to $67.81 a barrel on Thursday, 1.5% up on New York's closing price of $66.80. The gains came despite Tuesday's decision by oil cartel Opec to increase output by two million barrels a day. Hurricane Rita hit the low-lying Florida Keys island chain late on Tuesday, then gathered strength as it started approaching the main US production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Rita's path suggests it will then turn towards Texas, home to about a quarter of US oil refinery capacity. It is expected to arrive on Saturday..."
September 21 2005 ~
Washington Post ~ "....Because Rita could wipe out more refinery capacity while the United States is still catching its breath from Katrina, "the market is going to keep a keen eye on energy prices," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. of New York. "It's a very big deal.""...U.S. weekly oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration showed an unexpected decline of 300,000 barrels in crude stockpiles. Analysts had expected a modest increase"
TomDispatch ~ the Department of Defense has made zero progress in its drive to boost Iraqi oil output "....The disparate Iraqi insurgent groups were also aware of Washington's intent to finance its war and occupation through sales of Iraqi petroleum, and so have made sabotage of Iraq's pipelines, pumping stations, and loading terminals one of their most important strategic objectives. According to one source, insurgents conducted 230 major attacks on Iraq's oil infrastructure between January 2004 and September 7, 2005, causing billions of dollars in losses. Here, for instance, is a listing of some of the most recent attacks , as compiled by the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security......
total production stood at 1.9 million barrels per day in May 2005, compared to 2.6 million barrels in January 2003, just before the American invasion. Quite the opposite of paying for the American occupation........"
September 20 2005 ~
Reuters ~ "OPEC inched towards a deal on Tuesday that would make available to oil buyers its remaining spare capacity rather than the immediate supply increase some consumer countries had urged. .... There appears little the 11-member group can do to control oil prices that were blown higher again on Monday by the threat of a tropical storm heading for U.S. Gulf oil facilities. ........."
Washington Post ~ Oil Prices Spike As Storm Nears Jump of $4.39 Is Largest One-Day Surge on Record .............yesterday in the largest one-day gain ever as fears mounted that a developing tropical storm could damage oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico and Texas. U.S. benchmark crude for October delivery gained $4.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange to close at $67.39. ...The new storm "could be coming in right exactly where Katrina didn't go," said Michael Guido, director of commodity strategy in New York for French bank Societe Generale. "It could be a bad situation for all the platforms that didn't get hit before."
September 19 2005 ~
emedawire.com ~ "....If a picture is worth one thousand words, then The Oil Age Poster is worth one million words because people can not only see the oil production Hubbert's peaks in many countries and regions, but also read the facts proving that global peak oil is both inevitable and quite probably imminent," Congressman Bartlett said.
The looming oil crunch has been the subject of recent articles in the New York Times ( "The Beginning of the End of Oil?" by Peter Maass, New York Times Magazine, Aug. 25, 2005. ) and National Geographic ( "The End of Cheap Oil" by Tim Appenzeller, National Geographic, June 2004.), and in a landmark report commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy ( "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impact, Mitigation and Risk Management" by Robert Hirsch, SAIC, Feb. 2005 The Hirsch Report (pdf new window)). Major oil companies also are beginning to acknowledge the reality of oil depletion..........The Oil Age poster displays current energy statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Agency, BP Statistical Review and other industry sources. .."
September 16 2005 ~
Bloomberg ~ "...Oil prices at around $65 a barrel are forcing companies and consumers to pay more for fuel, leaving less money for other goods and weighing on international trade. Higher oil costs create a dilemma for central banks by raising inflation while undermining growth, frustrating their efforts to support the economy. "
The price of a barrel of crude reached a record $70.85 on Aug. 30. Just over a year ago it was $47
September 15 2005 ~
BBC ~ " Oil prices have risen amid growing fears over declining US fuel stockpiles as winter approaches. US light crude rose 23 cents to $65.32 a barrel in electronic European trade, while London's Brent crude gained 12 cents to $63.49 a barrel......About 56% of US crude production remains shut down in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. At least four refineries in the Gulf Coast are expected to be out of action for months. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has given assurances that it will take steps to alleviate any crude oil shortages. However, Saudi Crown Prince Sultan has said increasing demand and a shortage in refining capacity are the real reasons behind rising prices. The 26 industrialised countries who make up the International Energy Agency are meeting later on Thursday to consider whether to extend the release of oil from their 1.5 billion-barrel strategic reserve."
September 14 2005 ~
Reuters (London) ~ "Oil prices rose more than a dollar a barrel on Wednesday after U.S. data showed crude and heating oil stockpiles fell more than expected in the wake of Hurricane Katrina....Traders are calculating the impact of the likely closure for months of three U.S. Gulf refineries after Katrina against the emergency release of oil by the International Energy Agency. .."
Kunstler.com ~ "......The problem is car-dependency and the infrastructure for daily living predicated on it, not the kind of vehicles we run. I have yet to hear one US senator of either party propose that part of the recent $300 billion highway bill ought to be redirected to rebuilding America's passenger rail system -- even after the bitter lesson of Katrina, which demonstrated that people who don't own cars can't get out of harm's way in this country. Another Big Thought still clogging the collective imagination is the idea that if only we switch to "alternative fuels" we can run the interstate highway system, Disney World, and WalMart just like before. The country is full of people now who want gold stars for running their household car fleet on discarded Fry-Max oil from the local Dunkin Donuts. . . or on oil squeezed from hemp seeds. Notice that the premise of a drive-in society remains. Now the scary part of this is that these ideas are coming generally from the smarter people in our society. ..."
September 13 2005 ~
Independent ~ ".......In the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter called for the moral equivalent of war to reduce dependence on foreign oil; he was not re-elected. Since then, few politicians have spoken of an energy crisis. The US energy bill signed recently by President Bush did not even raise fuel-efficiency standards for passenger cars. When a crisis comes - whether in a year or two or 10 - it will be all the more painful because we will have done little or nothing to prepare for it."
Channel 4 ~ "......petrol stations warned they could run dry within hours if high demand continues, Chancellor Gordon Brown has called for a number of urgent measures to tackle the cause of soaring oil prices. He told the TUC Congress in Brighton that the Government understood the problems being faced by motorists. Mr Brown said that because demand for oil was outstripping supply, Opec should decide at its meeting next week to raise production. But Andrew Spence, a spokesman for the Fuel Lobby protest group, has said that the Chancellor said nothing that will halt tomorrow's demonstrations."
September 10 2005 ~
Channel 4 news interview with Matthew Simmons ~
- "We are producing, in all likelihood, every barrel of oil we can produce today that can be refined and used. So we are at full capacity....
(The Saudis) say "We refuse to have anyone audit our numbers, that it is preposterous to audit any data on field by field, trust us, we can we can produce 15 million barrels a day for 50, 75 or a hundred years. And I say this is so utterly serious to the wellbeing of the economy, the global economy. The good sound supply chain says "Trust me" without any audit, without any verification, any detailed data - it's for the birds....
That's one of the reasons that no one is really interested in transparency, I mean none of the producers, because if they had everything they say they have they should be the first people to say, "Look, we going to lead the World's effort in data transparency, field by field production reports on a quarterly basis, just like we require public companies to do with their financial results.
And if we don't clamour as a bunch of stakeholders around the world and force data transparency we probably deserve the awful shock we're going to get...."
September 8 2005 ~
CNN ~Stocks slipped Thursday after a two-day advance amid investor jitters about oil prices, the economy and Federal Reserve policy in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
CNN ~ "Jamaica (AP) --".....widespread street protests that left one man dead, blocked roads and forced most businesses and schools to close.
Police began clearing roadblocks of fallen trees, burned-out cars, tires and other debris that demonstrators had pushed into the streets Tuesday to protest the rising cost of water, electricity and public transportation. ..........
......
The protests came as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez met with Caribbean leaders in the resort town of Montego Bay. The leaders of nine nations gave final approval to an oil trading initiative offered by Chavez as an alternative to free trade deals backed by the United States amid rising world fuel prices."
"... Under the plan, Caribbean governments would pay market price for Venezuelan oil, but they would only be required to pay a portion of the cost up front and could finance the rest over 25 years at 1 percent interest, Patterson told the gathering. Governments could also pay for part of the cost with services or goods such as rice, bananas or sugar, while oil-rich Venezuela would provide assistance in expanding shipping and refining facilities."
September 6 2005 ~
Countercurrents.org ~ ".....New Orleans is sinking. The average American, North American, family has learned to spend somewhere near 10% more than it earns every year and bankruptcies are skyrocketing. Hopefully, Katrina isn't the trigger this time; hopefully, this brutal kick to the American sewage system won't lead to housing and other bubbles bursting all over America and then globally. Hopefully, rapidly increasing gas prices won't trigger a chain reaction of just in time non-deliveries, foreclosures, personal and civic strife, panic and looting. But it is going to happen sooner or later...
...There is a dawning appreciation of what good government should be but isn't, and how close we are all to chaos and cruel inhumanity when calamity strikes, and the importance of strong institutions and the rule of law.
But, like peak oil and Iraq, most of us will only awaken to reality in the wake of the storm surge."
Independent ~ "The surge in fuel prices hit the economy last month, according to a batch of surveys yesterday that revealed a drop in retail sales and shopper numbers and a slowdown in the UK's vast services sector..."
September 5 2005 ~
Independent ~ "..............Privately, most petrol companies concede that the prospect of British motorists being asked to pay 100p or more for a litre of petrol is now inevitable. Wholesale petrol suppliers raised their prices last week and warned retailers to expect further increases in the coming weeks and months....Last night, a senior figure at the International Monetary Fund warned that rising fuel costs now represented an increasing risk to the stability of the global economy. ...."
Life After the Oil Crash ~ ".......Warren Buffet, the world's second richest man, recently warned of "mega-catastrophic risks" and "investment time bombs" currently threatening the global economy. Add those to a mix of sky-high energy prices, destabilizing resource wars, less than inspiring leadership, a possible currency collapse, more"petrodollar warfare", and well, the picture begins to look pretty grim, pretty quick.
What all of this means, in short, is that the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. If you are focusing solely on the price at the pump, more fuel-efficient forms of transportation, or alternative sources of energy, you aren't seeing the bigger picture..."
http://peakoil.blogspot.com/ ~ "........the president signed a new energy policy dramatically reversing the nation's approach to oil shale and opening the door within a few years to companies that want to tap deposits on public lands. The report also says oil-shale mining, above-ground processing and disposing of spent shale cause significant adverse environmental impacts. Shell Oil is working on a process that would heat the oil shale in place, which could have less effect on the environment."
September 2 2005 ~
From the Wilderness ~ "......What is not being discussed rationally by the mainstream media is Katrina's impact on energy production. They don't dare. By my calculations and those of oil energy expert Jan Lundberg, the United States has just lost between 20% and 25% of its energy supply. My projection is that it's not coming back at least not most of it.
As a result of Katrina, Saudi Arabia has finally admitted that it cannot increase production. Many of us knew they've been lying for at least two years. The Energy Information Administration has just admitted that global demand has been outstripping supply for several months before Katrina. Nice time to start telling the truth. Nature is finally calling everybody's bluff....."
31 August 2005 ~
Reuters ~ " Oil thundered to a new high near $71 on Tuesday as oil firms assessed damage wrought by Hurricane Katrina's rampage through the Gulf of Mexico, where most oil and gas output was at a standstill and refineries were shut."
30 August 2005 ~
Reuters ~ ".....Iraqi oil official said firefighters were battling the blaze in the northern Kirkuk oilfields, which have been spared the relentless attacks on domestic and export oil pipelines in the region. Hours after the parliament speaker announced politicians needed more time to finalise the constitution after relentless wrangling, insurgents reminded them of economic turmoil with the well blast. Whether or not guerrillas intended it that way, the attack was a potent reminder that multi-ethnic Kirkuk is one of the most emotionally-charged issues in Iraqi politics. The Kurds, who are demanding more autonomy for their de facto state in the north in the constitution, say Kirkuk should rightfully be part of their region while Arab Sunnis and Turkmen lay claim to the oil centre too. Frequent sabotage of oil pipelines has deprived state coffers of badly needed oil revenue and the attack on the Kirkuk oilfields raises new questions about repeated government vows to protect the country's strategic natural resource....."
International Herald Tribune ~ (OPEC) warned last week that, if other producers such as Norway, the United Kingdom, Russia, Canada and others continue to produce at reduced levels, it will be forced to raise its own production to 30.5 million barrels per day (bpd), from 29.8 million currently, in order to meet global demand. As a result it will further reduce its spare capacity, which is none too great at the moment (the figure varies between 500,000 and 1 million bpd). This will create further upward pressure on prices; it is certain that the big Gulf producers will first raise their prices, sticking to a tactic they began about six months ago.
At present (July 2005 data) global oil production reaches 84.7 million bpd; the OPEC members produce 29.6 million, that is, about 35 percent of the total.
..................the global oil crisis intensifies, with still-unforeseen consequences for the economy.........it is especially interesting to note that, on August 16, French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin called on motorists to reduce their speed by 10 kilometers per hour in order to save 1.5 million tons of oil by the end of the year and also save 140 euros out of their own pockets. This in a country which meets 70 percent of its energy needs through the domestic nuclear industry and which - through oil major Total - controls major oil and gas reserves in Africa and South America. De Villepin recalled four ministers from their summer holidays in order to entrust them with a prompt revision of the government's energy plans, in order to limit consumption and further reduce energy dependency......"
Asia Times ~ " Indonesia grapples with oil crisis JAKARTA - The Indonesian government plans to slash fuel oil usage in an effort to boost the country's currency, which has been depreciating...."
29 August 2005 ~
news.monstersandcritics.com ~ Crude_oil_tops_$70_per_barrel Crude oil prices Monday hit another nominal high as Hurricane Katrina forced the closure of nearly half of all Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas output. High-quality crude for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit $70.80 per barrel before falling to $69.25, still a $3.12-per-gallon rise, the Financial Times reported.
25 August 2005 ~
Philippine Daily Inquirer ~ Energy conservation takes center stage in the Philippines ... Long and detailed article on the measures being introduced to deal with their energy crisis. The measures currently target government agencies, but are set to become compulsory for consumers and business if prices continue to rise..."
Reuters ~ "...... Ecuadorean Energy Minister Ivan Rodriguez said on Monday that some oil wells may have been permanently damaged and unable to return to normal activity. Ecuador is South America's biggest oil supplier to the United States after Venezuela. The Ecuadorean activists say their communities do not benefit enough from the country's oil wealth..."
24 August 2005 ~
- Refineries are running full-bore and straining their antiquated machinery to the limit. Unscheduled shutdowns have already brought the airline industry to the brink of jet fuel shortages.
- Saudi Arabia is at grave risk of both a collapse in the output of the legendary Ghawar oilfield and a major terrorist attack. Either event will send a shock through oil markets. Iran and the United States seem destined for a collision as Teheran rolls out its "oil bourse", an alternate pricing mechanism based on euros instead of dollars. (See sidebar: Iran In the Crosshairs)
- Seasonal hurricane risks are still a potential disruption....."
raisethehammer.org ~ "....the potential for a major supply disruption has never been higher:
22/23 August 2005 ~
China -The Standard ~ ".... Pearl River Delta cities began to face oil shortages about a month ago. Drivers seeking fuel discovered that the independents, which couldn't get supplies from Sinopec or PetroChina, were running out first. The crisis climaxed early last week, when even many of the stations run by the duopoly began to run short.
Chaos began to visit the PRD cities, particularly last Tuesday when, in Guangzhou, drivers blindly circled the city in the vain hope of finding stations that still had supplies.
Drivers had to beg passing vehicles for spare fuel or call their friends to help push their empty cars home. Many taxi drivers stopped operating because refueling was too costly...."
Znet.com ~ "Darfur, a
parched area the size of France, sparsely populated but oil rich. It has an
ancient history ...........Darfur is part of a broader oil-driven crisis in northern Africa. ....Oil is driving
the genocide .....
Oil drives the Bush administration's policy toward
Sudan and the rest of Africa. And oil is likely to topple Sudan and its
neighbors into chaos.
...........
a war of the future: not the slick PowerPoint
presentations you can imagine in boardrooms in Dallas and Beijing showing
proven reserves in one color, estimated reserves in another, vast
subterranean puddles that stretch west into Chad, and south to Nigeria and
Uganda; not the technology; just the simple fact of the oil.
This is a resource war, fought by surrogates, involving great powers whose
economies are predicated on growth, contending for a finite pool of
resources...
the Islamist regime has manipulated ethnic, racial, and economic
tensions, as part of a strategic drive to commandeer the country's oil
wealth. The war has claimed about two million lives, mostly in the south --
many by starvation, when government forces prevented humanitarian agencies
from gaining access to camps. Another four million Sudanese remain homeless. ..."
BBC ~ Ecuador oil protesters call truce. Protesters in Ecuador agree to talks with the government after unrest which has slashed oil production.
Manila Standard (Phillipines) ~ "Filipino ambassadors and diplomats worldwide have been instructed to embark on "oil diplomacy" to help the government address the energy crisis besetting the country today......Filipino inventor Pablo Planas created the gas-saving gadget KSTC in 1973 to help reduce fuel consumption and lower toxic emissions of vehicles. Government officials like Vice President Noli de Castro and Environment Secretary Mike Defensor are now endorsing the use of the gadget after they proved that it could save 15 to 50 percent of fuel consumption. These officials also noted that dark emissions from their vehicles have been reduced after using the KSTC gadget. .."
Meanwhile, President Arroyo has been urged to certify as urgent a measure seeking to promote the development, utilization, and commercialization of renewable energy resources in the wake of skyrocketing prices of oil.
21 August 2005 ~
Aspo Ireland ~ abstracts, papers, communications from the speakers at the IV INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON
OIL AND GAS DEPLETION
19-20 May 2005, Lisbon, Portugal, are avalable from this page. Here, for example, is what Michael Meacher had to say. "The scale of change required in the world economy in the next few decades following the passing of Peak Oil within the next few years is nothing less than apocalyptic.
Since our whole civilisation and our whole economy is based overwhelmingly on oil, namely - industry, agriculture, transportation - the dislocation caused by the growing shortfall in availability is likely to be on a scale unprecedented in human history...."
20 August 2005 ~
museletter.com ~ The Oil Depletion Protocol, drafted by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil "... The Protocol may at first look like merely a good idea with no real chance of implementation. However, closer inspection suggests that its implementation will benefit nearly all important global stakeholders and that objections likely to be raised to it are easily countered....it would be unnecessary for all nations to ratify the Protocol in order for it to have a beneficial effect; if even one nation adopts it, that nation will be benefited. However, if a substantial number of nations sign on this will create a platform for international economic stability and cooperation....The Protocol will be presented at several important international conferences attended by world leaders in late 2005. "
You can endorse the depletion protocol yourself by joining Aspo Ireland (new window) . Reporting Britain's plan to introduce energy rationing, this month's newsletter sys, "...a good reason for introducing an energy ration is because Britain's indigenous oil and gas supply is set to continue to decline to near exhaustion in about fifteen years, as confirmed by the Department of Trade and Industry. More political halos are evidently won by describing it as a response to climate change induced by burning fossil fuels. In any event, it is an excellent proposal especially if the ration could become a form of tradable currency, making the energy content of goods and services a primary component of their cost."
"ChevronTexaco has initiated an expensive public-relations campaign titled "Will You Join Us?", featuring a web site (www.willyoujoinus.com) and expensive newspaper ads informing readers that "the era of easy oil is over" and asking for public discussion on the issue. The Oil Depletion Protocol will provide more long-term security for the petroleum industry than any PR campaign ever could, and at no cost." Professor Richard Heinberg (peak oil news) See Dr Colin Campbell's talk, below
19 August 2005 ~
Powerswitch ~
Free 'Peak Oil' presentation made available online
...... by Dr. Colin Campbell
...... a Flashmedia file that presents very clearly the causes and consequences of Peak Oill'. It starts by looking at exactly how oil is formed then looks at the reality of oil discovery and oil depletion in action before moving on to the devastating consequences. It is an all-encompassing talk." "... no evidence that this long downwards trend is going to change direction - this is a crisis in the making... We have had 150 years of growth and now we face a similar decline...the cost of oil hasn't gone up...it is simply profiteering from shortage..... entirely new to anyone's experience. We face the end of economics as presently understood....the banks begin to wake up..." Powerswitch (new window) has made available a recording of Dr Campbell's April talk, together with his powerpoint presentation. "We need to stress this idea of a depletion protocol - to force consumers to face reality."
It is light in tone, easy to listen to and very, very worrying. (He had just been taking to the Swiss bankers - who are, unlike our politicians apparently, taking the issue very seriously.) You need broadband to listen and see effectively. Dr Campbell advises governments to adopt the Depletion Protocol
To view the presentation in full go to http://tinyurl.co.uk/blgp and for further information on Peak Oil' visit www.PowerSwitch.org.uk
17 August 2005 ~
The Australian News.com ~ ".......It's not easy to say it. It's ugly to hear it. But without discovering huge new oilfields, the world is slowly but inexorably running out of oil. Low-cost oil especially.
Though Woodside and the giant oil majors such as Exxon, BP, Chevron and Shell, consistently report their depletion rates are more than matched by their rising reserves. In this way, Peak Oil can be dismissed.
Reserves are rising. The problem is that incremental reserve increases are dwarfed by the spectre of exploding demand.
Once regarded as the domain of crackpots and scaremongers, Peak Oil Theory is now fashionable...."
Sun and Star - Phillipines ~ "... at the current price level, foreign exchange reserves are in danger of being used up just to acquire fuel.....government is readying a bill ...that would give certain agencies emergency powers to impose energy conservation measures...mandatory energy-saving measures for the public and private sectors....talking to firms involved in generic packaging, such as those that use tetra packs and other forms of packaging. He said people should not hesitate to buy products in tetra packs because they are cheaper than those in the more expensive tin cans...."
16 August 2005 ~
The Hirsch Report (pdf new window) ~ "....... The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary...."
Janes' com ~ "Saudi Arabia's future under Abdullah ....... Following the death of King Fahd, the handover of power to King Abdullah was both swift and smooth, and the prospects for short-term stability within Saudi Arabia remain strong. However, mid and long-term prospects for the Kingdom are far less certain......The overthrow of the ruling family remains a major goal for Osama bin Laden and it is likely that there may soon be acts of terrorism in the country by way of a statement of intent to the new King....."
15 August 2005 ~
Financial Times ~ World is heading for oil price shock George Magnus writes, ".... It behoves us to ask if there might be more on the oil price menu than the normal fare of Chinese demand, temporary shortages of refining capacity and the occasional hurricane. There are three main areas that are generating new concern about the outlook for oil prices: context, supply and the effects on the world economy...."
14 August 2005 ~
Ottowa Citizen ~ "....here's a belief that if oil companies suddenly announced that the peak had been reached and resources were steadily declining, there would be mass panic. Nonetheless, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a geologist and author of Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak, has predicted a "permanent oil shortage" that will cripple economies, driving up unemployment and inflation......"
RedNova.com ~ ".... In geopolitical terms, the rising price of crude may well have undesirable effects. It is bringing about a huge transfer of wealth to oil-producing countries, some of which are not renowned for their stable and democratic regimes. Vladimir Putin's Kremlin is also a major beneficiary, as anyone who has taken a summer holiday in a fashionable European resort packed with newly-rich Russians could testify. The gushing oil price underlines the need for us to take energy efficiency seriously and to formulate grownup ideas about nuclear energy...."
12 August 2005 ~
American Scientist online ~ From David Ehrenfeld's review of The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century. James Howard Kunstler "....... Kunstler gives all of the alternatives a critical but fair inquiry, from conventional energy sources such as coal and natural gas, through oil shales and tar sands, synthetic oil, renewable energy (including wind, solar and hydroelectric power and biomass), nuclear fission and nuclear fusion, hydrogen, thermal depolymerization (turning organic waste into oil), methane hydrates and even zero-point energy.
Most of these technologies founder on "the classic problem of energy economics: energy returned over energy invested (ERoEI). "The figure in the case of tar sands and oil shale is approximately three barrels of oil produced for every two barrels of oil-equivalent invested. In the case of ethanol produced from agribusiness corn or sugar cane, the ratio may be less than one. Some alternatives, such as methane hydrates, are dangerous to handle. Hydrogen is not a primary fuel: Its production requires considerable energy. Also, because of the low density of hydrogen gas, it must be stored and transported under high compression, or liquefied at very low temperatures, or combined with other compounds. Each of these options costs still more energy, and they introduce an assortment of complications and hazards into the delivery system. Although hydrogen will have its uses, Kunstler says, his verdict is unequivocal: "There is not going to be a 'hydrogen economy.'" Nor is he sanguine about such far-out schemes as a process for deriving zero-point energy from the dark matter of the universe; he reminds us that "A useful maxim in engineering states that when something sounds too good to be true, it generally is not true."
Kunstler's moderate treatment of nuclear power (fission) has angered some environmentalists. I think he makes a good case, however, that during the transition period to a post-petroleum economy, the United States, which produces much of its electricity from a rapidly declining supply of natural gas, will not be as well off as France, which gets 80 percent of its electric power from nuclear energy. Nevertheless, he does not see nuclear power as more than a short-term stopgap....."
11 August 2005 ~
WorldPress.org ~ Venezuela-Uruguay sign 25 year oil deal
China Daily ~ "India.... has proposed to extend the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline to China. Beijing has not yet officially commented on New Delhi's proposal."
BBC ~ ".....The latest jump in the price of oil came after a US government report showed that American petrol stocks had fallen by 2.1 million barrels due to ongoing strong demand during the main US driving season, and a number of glitches at American refineries.
In the Middle East, oil traders are particularly concerned at the situation in number one producer Saudi Arabia, where US authorities have warned of a possible attack on US consulates.
The high price of oil is having a knock-on affect on global petrol prices, which are also hitting records.
In the UK, petrol prices are at a 22-year high, with motorists having to pay up to £1 ($1.8) a litre at the pumps."
10 August 2005 ~
CNW Group ~ " Today's edition of Canada's Business Report takes a look at the world's oil reserves, and the rising price of crude. In the first of a two part series, CBR's Donna Guzik speaks with Matthew Simmons, a Houston based investment banker that specializes in the energy industry. He has been a key advisor to the Bush administration, and has been outspoken about the Peak Oil theory. Simmons says that oil is still "the cheapest liquid we have in the world." But that the price will continue to rise, with no limit in sight....Simmons says that Canada's oil sands are not the answer to the world's growing shortage of crude supplies..."
South African Star ~ "....... So why the panic?
To begin with, the energy markets are in a nervous state. It is now widely recognised that the US-led war in Iraq has become a
debacle: the longer American troops remain in Iraq, the more their presence will inflame Islamic passions and increase terrorist recruitment, while their withdrawal could see the world's second largest oil producer collapse into civil war.
Meanwhile, Iran, another of the front-ranking oil producers, has just elected a new hardline anti-Western president in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, while globally - as this column noted five months ago - oil consumption is rapidly outstripping supply, which means the world is heading for an energy crisis with the price of oil set to increase in an unstoppable upward graph.
Faud's death and Abdullah's coronation have merely focused attention on this uncomfortable prospect and reminded the markets that, while there will be no major changes in Saudi Arabia right now, a dramatic shake-up is possible in the not-too-distant future.
This is because the present regime is bound to be a brief one. Abdullah is over 80 and the sultan is in his late 70s. So the potential crisis is not now but when Abdullah dies, for then power will pass to a new generation.
That could lead to either a crippling tribal feud within the House of Saud, or the outbreak of discontent among ordinary Saudis who are growing increasingly restive at their declining standard of living while those inside the royal circle continue to live in extravagant affluence. Or a combination of the two....."
9 August 2005 ~
Xinhua.net ~ Terror concerns drive oil price toward $65. " Warnings of a possible terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia coupled with concerns about Iran's resumption of its nuclear program helped push crude prices to nominal records, with analysts fearing the per barrel price could soon breach 65-US dollar mark, the Financial Times reported Tuesday. Crude futures in New York on Monday approached 64-dollar a barrel and US gasoline futures reached highs as an already-tight market reacted to warnings from the United States, Britain and Australia of potential attacks in Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer..."
Signonsandigo ~ ".....the latest surge in prices came as U.S. diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia, including the embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Dhahran and Jeddah, were closed for two days amid reports of planned attacks. Oil markets are sensitive to any threat to the stability of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. Last week, Crown Prince Abdullah became the new king after the death of his half-brother, Fahd. Adding to the political anxiety, Iran, the second-largest oil producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, began work at a uranium reprocessing plant in Isfahan, a move that is certain to test relations with the West. For most of the past two years, oil markets have been volatile, a reflection of the lack of spare production capacity worldwide, inadequate refineries, strong consumer demand in the United States and China, and supply disruptions from major producers like Iraq and Venezuela. That has led to a doubling of oil prices since 2003. The strain on refineries is beginning to show in the United States as they operate at full capacity to meet summer gasoline demand. In recent weeks, several unplanned shutdowns, incidents or accidents have sparked concerns that supplies would be unable to meet demand through the end of the year..."
8 August 2005 ~
The Times ~
".....a blow to the Government, which has to find reliable new sources of energy urgently, as many of Britain's older nuclear and coal-fired power stations are due to be decommissioned.
Soaring oil prices and fears about the developed world's dependence on Middle Eastern oil have produced a renewed interest in nuclear energy. Some nuclear experts believe that about 80 nuclear reactors will have to be built around the world in the next 10 years.
....an energy White Paper in 2003 neither backed the building of nuclear power stations to generate cleaner electricity nor closed the door on the option.
No decision is expected to be taken, or even discussed, until a report on how to handle existing nuclear waste has been completed.
The poll also reveals that the public does not trust politicians or energy companies to tell the truth about nuclear power. Only 1 per cent of those polled believed that ministers or MPs would be truthful about safety..."
5 August 2005 ~
TomDispatch ~ "........The very fact that a Chinese firm had been prepared to outbid a powerful American firm for control of a major U.S.-based oil company is immensely significant in purely economic terms.
Since abandoned by the Chinese because of fierce American political opposition, the effort, if consummated, would have represented the largest transaction ever by a Chinese enterprise in the United States. But the bid triggered intense political debate and resistance in Washington because of CNOOC's ties to the Chinese government -- it is 70% owned by the state -- and because the principal commodity involved, oil, was considered so vital to the U.S. economy and was thought to be less plentiful than once assumed. Fearing that China might gain control over valuable supplies of oil and gas that would someday be needed at home or by U.S. allies in Asia, conservative politicians sought to block CNOOC's acquisition of Unocal by recasting the matter in national security terms.
"This is a national security issue," former CIA Director R. James Woolsey testified...."
3 August 2005 ~
From the Wilderness.com ~ "The fact that Norwegian production is plummeting is extremely important. Norway has been the third largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia for many years. Global decline is not just apparent, it's starting to scream. The fact that the US government is doing nothing to prepare its people for these shocks is despicable. The author here says it best,
- "I'd like to be able to tell you that the U.S. government is doing everything it can to prepare for the coming energy emergency...but I can't. In fact, when I think about how little prepared this country is for the changes that are about to hit us, my hands automatically clench into fists...."
BBC ~ Crude oil prices rise again and hit fresh highs above the $62-a-barrel level as markets anticipate US supply shortages.
MSNBC.MSN.com ~ Oil hits new record highs amid supply worry...Crude oil prices briefly rose to new heights Wednesday in a rally traders attributed to concerns about refinery snags in the U.S. and rising global demand.
....A spate of unplanned refinery outages in the United States over the past week ..... the U.S. National Weather Service said there could be 11 to 14 more tropical storms, including seven to nine more hurricanes, by the end of November. Last year's Hurricane Ivan reduced output in the Gulf of Mexico for months.
Over the past few years, rising oil consumption has been eating into the limited amount of excess production capacity available....the death of Saudi Arabia's king helped rattle markets on Monday.... the country's oil policy is not expected to change."
2August 2005 ~
BBC ~ Chinese firm abandons Unocal bid "US politicians were unhappy at the CNOOC moves Chinese oil producer CNOOC has withdrawn its $18.5bn (£10.4bn) bid for US firm Unocal, leaving the way clear for Chevron to acquire the business. CNOOC cited "unprecedented political opposition" in the US as a reason for ditching its offer..."
31 July 2005 ~
- Oil Peaking Could Cost the U.S. Economy Dearly
- Oil Peaking Presents a Unique Challenge ("it will be abrupt and revolutionary")
- The Problem is Liquid Fuels (growth in demand mainly from transportation sector)
- Mitigation Efforts Will Require Substantial Time
- Both Supply and Demand Will Require Attention
- It Is a Matter of Risk Management (mitigating action must come before the peak)
- Government Intervention Will be Required
- Economic Upheaval is Not Inevitable ("given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.")
- More Information is Needed
TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com) ~ " A 67-page report released earlier this year on the subject of Peak Oil and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy drew several conclusions: World Oil Peaking is Going to Happen
Gloabl Public Media com ~ "Where Is the Hirsch Report?In Brief: Half a year after its release, the Hirsch report is nowhere to be found. For several months it was archived, in PDF format, on a high school web site (www.hilltoplancers.org, Hilltop High School in Chula Vista, Calif.). On July 7 the report disappeared from that site. The Atlantic Council (www.acus.org) is considering publishing the Hirsch report; however there is no projected date of release. When contacted, Dr. Hirsch replied that the document is "a public report, paid for and released by DOE NETL, and that it therefore could be reposted at will."-By Richard Heinberg.."
See also on warmwell: US Report Acknowledges Peak-oil Threat, and Dr. Robert L. Hirsch's The Mitigation of the Peaking of World Oil Production Summary of an Analysis, February 8, 2005 (warmwell's copy of the Hirsch Report is here - a pdf file that opens in a new window)
28 July 2005 ~
Guardian ~ Shell announces £5.8bn profits
"Royal Dutch Shell today reported half-year profits of £5.8bn in its first results as a unified company.
The oil giant's profits - equivalent to £1.3m an hour - were in line with the figures released by its rival BP earlier this week, which established a new record for a UK company.
Shell said it had benefited from high oil prices....Shell became a unified company this month. It was previously co-owned by Dutch and British holding firms, which appointed executives to a joint management board.
The decision to unify it followed the reserves fiasco, which was blamed on the dual structure of the company.
Shell was down 11p, standing at 1,723p in early trading."
Tim Dyson London School of Economics~ ".... there is no real alternative to the continued use of coal, oil and natural gas for the purpose of economic development....except for a massive shift towards nuclear - which has many serious problems attached, and would in any case take decades to bring about - there are limits to what such changes could possibly achieve in terms of CO2 reduction. Other technological ideas - like the development of the so-called hydrogen economy', or the extraction of CO2 from coal and its sequestration underground or at sea - are remote, even fanciful ideas as large scale and significant solutions to the problem. Indeed, such notions can themselves be the basis of avoidance inasmuch as they suggest that something is being done. Understandably, poor countries are unlikely to put great effort into constraining their CO2 emissions - especially in the face of massive discrepancies between them and the rich...." pdf file - new window
26 July 2005 ~
Resource Investor "..... ~ Exxon-Mobil and Chevron report on Thursday and Friday. Their share dividends are forecast to jump from 87 cents per share to $1.27 and from $1.53 to $1.69, respectively.
"It's a windfall for the oil majors," said Campbell. "An irony about the current situation is that
in any normal market a price rise gets people producing more. In this case there is every incentive to do the opposite, so that the majors can make their reserves last longer. In the oil market we have now, high prices actually seem to dampen output."
........
Despite forays into more difficult territory, both physical and political, oil majors are still unable to significantly add to their reserves, he says.
"Of course you can always find smidgens here and there, no doubt about that," he admits. "But you can see by the way the oil
companies have been merging and are merging, that this has been the main way they have added to their reserves. By snapping up those of the weaker partner [in the merger]."
"[The oil majors] also thought they would do well in Russia but [President] Putin has been stopping that game," said Campbell. "He realises that Russia will need its reserves for its own future use. Russia is already making a bundle on exports, but it seems they have planned ahead and see what is happening. They want to keep their oil."
25 July 2005 ~
From the Wilderness ~ (From John Gray's review of Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy by Matthew R Simmons
"........ Iraq is a failed state in the grip of an intractable insurgency, and the price of oil is roughly $60 a barrel. The scramble to secure energy
supplies is more frenzied than ever. The Great Game has been resumed, not only in central Asia but also in the Gulf. If Iran is attacked by the US in the course of the coming year or so, one reason for this will be to stymie energy supply agreements that Tehran may be planning with America's competitors, notably China and India....
... The energy-intensive lifestyle which is now spreading throughout the world cannot be sustained with non-renewable and polluting fossil fuels, but it is sheer fantasy to imagine that a human population of between six and eight billion can be supported on a combination of windfarms, solar power and organic agriculture. As Simmons notes, we may be approaching the limits of growth that the Club of Rome identified more than 30 years ago, and we are no better prepared to adjust to them now than we were then." Read in full
"
24 July 2005 ~
Sunday Telegraph ~ "....soaring wholesale gas prices could force members to shut down their operations this winter. and that britain could run out of gas .....the uk has become increasingly dependent on natural gas from continental europe as its own supplies of north sea gas dwindle. when demand for gas is high during cold weather, it has to be imported via cross-channel pipelines, notably the interconnector, a two-way pipe that imports gas from europe. many in the uk energy sector suspect that european companies have contributed to recent price rises by deliberately withholding supplies during times of shortage........ whatever the eventual outcome of this, time is running short for britain's manufacturing industry if it is to keep operating this winter. ..."
23 July 2005 ~
Daily Astorian ~ ".....Most of the easy-to-get coal has already been extracted, which means that eventually it will take more energy to mine the remaining coal than can be produced from the coal itself.
Natural gas isn't the answer either, because it will peak in 15 years then drop off, Black says.
Paddon and Black call hydrogen power a "diversion to give the public hope....
".....Germany is buying solar panels up all over the world."
......
"We cannot feed the earth's population with current farming methods," Black said, referring to the reliance on fertilizers that dramatically increase output and the method of transporting food long distances...." Read in full
17 July 2005 ~
Aljazeera.net ~ ".....There are reasonable frameworks for ameliorating all but the worst possible peak oil scenarios - Lester Brown's energy reduction policies within a wartime-like controlled and redeveloped economy, for example - but first the informed public in the West has to grasp the cause and effect and the horrific dimensions of a catastrophe dwarfing tsunamis or Horn of Africa famine." Read in full
15 July 2005 ~
Resource Investor ~ ".......looking to the long term, where all factors are variable, an even more egregious oil price than today's will help precipitate the end of the hydrocarbon age by stimulating through enhanced economic viability the development of the technologies that are needed to well and truly shed our dependence on the black stuff, with the obvious consequent effects on demand and price."
www.arrakis.es".......Many politicians and economists insist that there are alternatives to oil and that we can "invent our way out of this."
Physicists and geologists tell us an entirely different story.
The politicians and economists are selling us 30-year old economic and political fantasies, while the physicists and geologists are telling us scientific and mathematical truth. Rather than accept the high-tech myths proposed by the politicians and economists, its time for you to start asking critical questions about the so called "alternatives to oil" and facing some hard truths about energy.
Unfortunately, since most people see and hear only what they want to see and hear, the politicians and economists are lauded while the physicists and geologists are ignored...." Read in full
11/12 July 2005 ~
Pressbox.co.uk ~ "PEAK OIL PARADIGM SHIFT- The Urgent Need For a Sustainable Energy Model"...by Bilaal Abdullah...the book examines the possible effects of Peak Oil on developed, developing and underdeveloped countries and the implications for geo-politics, economic development, climate and lifestyle changes.
Having made the case that the Peak Oil phase of petroleum (and natural gas) production is imminent, the author examines the likely effects of oil scarcity on the critical chokepoints of electricity generation, transportation and agriculture. He then reviews the practical methods of diversifying the world's energy mix on a region by region basis.
Peak Oil Paradigm Shift is not a doomsday book.....
Dr. Patrick Watson Head of The Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social & Economic Studies at the University of the West Indies St. Augustine Campus in Trinidad said about Peak Oil Paradigm Shift - "..... It is informative and readable. It is done with a lot of passion. That is clear when you read it. But the passion is controlled. It is not screaming at you. It is telling you with a sense of decency almost, that this is what is going to happen. It is a sense of urgency on the part of the author."
11/12 July 2005 ~
Newsday ~ " (Senator Hillary) Clinton also said the U.S. needs to focus on exploring alternative energy sources to become less reliant on oil. "Ours will be the last generation to rely so exclusively on fossil fuels," she said, adding that the "ups and downs of the global oil market cost the U.S. economy $7 trillion last year ... almost enough to pay off our entire national debt."
Pressbox.co.uk ~ "An open forum on the implications of the terminal decline of global oil production will be held in London on Saturday July 16th 2005 from 10am until 5.30pm. Hosted by the UK Peak Oil' campaign group PowerSwitch.org.uk, the event will give many people already aware of Peak Oil' the opportunity to develop their understanding further....There are still places available for those interested in attending, and further details can be found on the PowerSwitch website at www.PowerSwitch.org.uk"
9 July 2005 ~
News Inquirer ~ ".....Oil broker Tom Bentz at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures said energy prices keep rising on underlying fears that a hurricane, terrorist attack or other event could stymie oil production and refining at a time when demand is strong and excess capacity is limited."
Howe St.com ~ "...... I think that the Chinese may as well be taking out an a full-page ad in The Washington Post stating, "We are going to buy up the oil and gas of you Westerners. And to accomplish this task, we are going to use all of those dollars you have been sending us for the past 10 years. And just what are you going to do about it?" Yes, just what are we going to do about it? My hope is that the Unocal takeover competition will be as much of a wake-up call to America over its fundamental economic and monetary issues as the Union Oil well blowout in Santa Barbara in 1969 was, which galvanized the current environmental movement. If not, the United States has only itself to blame...."
Sify.com ~ "....another topsy-turvy session at the end of a volatile week that saw prices reach new record highs, then plummet on Thursdays terrorist attacks in London, then rebound on hurricane concerns. New York's contract for light sweet crude for August delivery dipped in late trade to end $1.10 lower at $59.63 a barrel, having hit a new record high of $62.10 on Thursday...."
7 July 2005 ~
India Daily ~ (July 2) "The Sino-Russian summit.... Russian and Chinese officials signed a joint declaration on the international order in the 21st century, cooperative agreements between specified Russian and Chinese financial institutions, and long-term cooperation agreements between Russia's Unified Energy Systems power monopoly and the China State Grid Corp., as well as between Russian state oil firm Rosneft and the China National Petroleum Corp. Chinese President Hu Jintao also said the two countries intend to strengthen support for one another with respect to Chechnya and Taiwan..."
Pravda ~
6 July 2005 ~
Vancouver Sun ~ "..Crude oil prices rose back above US$60 a barrel Wednesday amid concerns about U.S. supply disruptions as a tropical storm forced oil companies to evacuate rigs in the Gulf of Mexico......Energyintel analyst Tom Wallin in a research note.... ".. The market's strong price response to this weather threat again underscores how tightly balanced and vulnerable the entire energy supply system is," Wallin said.
FinFacts (Ireland) ~ ".... The New York Times reports that the last thing Chevron wanted when it made its $16.8 billion offer for Unocal back in April was to be pitted in a takeover battle against the Chinese government. After all, one of the main reasons it went after Unocal, a California-based independent oil company with vast resources in Asia, was to sell oil and gas to the fastest-growing energy market in the world, China. .....Chevron's managers have gone into overdrive to portray the Chinese government-backed offer as unfair competition and to close their deal as quickly as possible. They have received support from many lawmakers in Washington, who have painted the Chinese offer as a threat to America's national security. ..."
From the Wilderness ~ "...with each passing day we are becoming increasingly convinced that a "supply shock" is just on the horizon, and it will likely manifest itself before the year is out. This year, 2005, may well turn out to be the peak year for global oil production. In the seasonally strong fourth quarter, demand is expected to be 86.5 million barrels per day - that's 4 million barrels per day higher than current demand in the second quarter. Where this extra production is supposed to come from is leaving many of us scratching our heads. Be that as it may, the moment of reckoning is quickly approaching..."
5 July 2005 ~
Radio Netherlands ~ "... the price of crude oil...is now expected to join Africa and climate change as one of the main issues under the spotlight.....Prime Minister Blair paid a surprise visit to Saudi Arabia at the weekend, not - as the official explanation would have it - to seek Saudi support for a new G8 initiative for the Gaza Strip, but to ask the world's largest oil producer to keep the price under control, and preferably down.. it's an issue which the G8 cannot avoid: a major oil crisis would bring a halt to economic growth, and the negative impact of such a development would be felt all over the world, including the developing nations of Africa and elsewhere."
In.rediff.com ~
"......China holds a trump card -- its nearly 800 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves. Until now Beijing has been content to buy low-paying US government bonds, indirectly financing America's huge trade and budget deficits.
...... By integrating its economy to that of the West, it makes itself immune to Western sanctions should it take over Taiwan by force.
..... China and America are already dependent on each other. Much of American manufacturing has relocated to China to take advantage of low wages. China cannot let its currency appreciate against the dollar, because then its products will be too expensive for Americans to buy, which would result in the closing of its factories, and social unrest and unemployment...." Read in full
http://www.kommersant.com ~ "The Chinese ... also dislike separatism, sympathize with Karimov and hope to maintain the status quo in the Shanghai Organization territory. At the same time, they offer Russia a project to build an oil pipeline to China and sell them Russian oil. For them, oil is main issue. .... Russian oil makes Beijing less dependent on America. Judging all the indicators, China is becoming a superpower, the only one that will be comparable to the United States. For that cause, they are fully prepared to use the Shanghai Organization as a cover for shooting civilians in Central Asia, if they take it into their heads to fight for democracy..." article in "Russia's first independent newspaper" http://www.kommersant.com
3 July 2005 ~
The July edition of the ASPO Newsletter is now available: www.peakoil.ie/newsletters/aspo55
28 June 2005 ~
Opinion Journal.com ~ "......The mystery of Saudi oil capacity bears an eerie resemblance to Saddam Hussein's apparent belief that his scientists had developed weapons of mass destruction. Who are the deceivers and who is the deceived? No one yet knows the answers. But at least Matthew Simmons is asking the questions."
27 June 2005 ~
Guardian ~ The black stuff has world order over a barrel "......The G8 summit at Gleneagles next week will discuss the likely impact of high oil prices on the global economy and what the rich countries of the west ought to do in response...There is a strong possibility that what we are facing now is not simply a temporary mismatch between demand and supply that can be sorted out by Opec pumping more oil or by exploiting marginal fields in the world's most inhospitable places. Rather, it is that we are in the early stages of an energy crisis that will fundamentally affect our lives over the next few decades. If that is so, western policymakers need to be thinking hard - and thinking hard now - about what life is going to be like when the oil and gas run out. ..."
Guardian ~ "Oil prices today hit record highs, remaining above $60 a barrel, as speculators bet on the inability of producers and refiners to meet strong demand during the winter.
US sweet light crude was trading 67 cents higher at $60.51, after earlier hitting $60.64. Brent crude, the other main contract, rose 71 cents to $59.07. ...
... a shortage of refining capacity is the problem rather than a shortage of crude oil. Saudi Arabia, the only Opec producer with any spare capacity, says it is already meeting customer demand for crude.
The bankers meeting in Basle warned that oil prices would remain high for some time to come.
"
25 June 2005 ~
Sun News ~ "....This year, the world is consuming about 84 million barrels of oil a day. America guzzles about 20.8 million barrels a day. Experts think oil-producing nations have only 1.5 million barrels a day or less of unused production capacity right now. A disruption anywhere could cause market panic and spiking prices. That's largely why oil and gasoline prices are so high...." Washinton ran a simulation exercise on Thursday ".... Two former CIA directors and several other former top policy-makers participated to draw attention to America's need to reduce its dependence on oil, especially foreign oil."
23 June 2005 ~
warmwell.com ~ Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) optimistically report that "global oil-production capacity should increase dramatically by the end of the decade..." (See Bradenton.com) We are reminded that
Jean Laherrere says," In the past there was only one worldwide source of field reserves, being Petroconsultants funded by a geologist (bought by IHS in 1999). Now IHS, who bought recently CERA, has lost its geological background and uses more and more political data...."
In a balanced article in last Sunday's Sunday Times, David Smith nevertheless writes that if Matthew Simmons is right, "now might be the time to start panicking.."
23 June 2005 ~
Philadephia Inquirer ~ (Kenneth S) "Deffeyes, however, does not buy predictions that production can keep increasing for decades, especially since in 1986 the world began burning more oil annually than it was finding. Although oil production has continued increasing worldwide, discovery of new oil reserves has been in a relentless decline for 40 years. "There are a few juicy places," said Deffeyes, who worked for Shell Oil in the 1950s before leaving for an academic career. Among those places are Russia, where political instability is a serious concern, and Iraq, which is the only Middle Eastern country that has not been thoroughly explored, Deffeyes said. To move the peak of oil production a few decades forward, "they've got to find another Middle East, plus another North Sea on top of that," Deffeyes said...."
23 June 2005 ~
Sunday Times ~"While the world's leaders and finance ministers have been concerning themselves with issues such as African poverty, other matters have not disappeared from the agenda. Last weekend in London, the Group of Seven finance ministers expressed their "significant concern" about high oil prices, warning they were hampering economic growth. On cue, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) said on Wednesday it was raising production quotas by 500,000 barrels a day to 28m from July 1. That is unlikely, however, to produce an early drop in prices, which hit a record of $58.45 a barrel in New York on Friday. Opec, having abandoned its old $22-$28-a-barrel target range now seems relaxed about these higher prices. Demand for oil is strong and supply is limited. .." Read in full
19 June 2005 ~
Energy Bulletin ~ ".... For a book whose subtitle reads, "A Simple Guide to the Oil Shortage," what better title could there be than Over a Barrel, because that is exactly where the industrialized world finds itself now, about 100 years after oil's potential for transportation, manufacturing, comfort and the general advancement of mankind emerged..."
18 June 2005 ~
Powerswitch.org.uk ~ "....Investment banker Matthew Simmons says an oil shortage chain reaction could be coming, although his critics sharply disagree
Saudi Arabia says it has enough oil to keep the world happy for at least another 70 years.
But the closely guarded Saudi Aramco numbers that would back up that claim aren't available to outsiders. That worries Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons.
Simply put, Simmons doesn't think energy-intensive countries like the United States should take Saudi Arabia at its word. He contends that the country's official oil reserve count could be overstated and the kingdom's oil production could decline, throwing the world's supply-and-demand balance off-kilter and jacking up prices for years to come. .."
17 June 2005 ~
Oilcast #10 (mp3): OPEC - 'It's the refineries, stupid!' ....we look at the quarterly OPEC meeting this week in Vienna. Does the oil cartel want to avoid being viewed as the oil-movie bad guys? They reminded us that they are pumping all they can. And all of this in the middle of another week of sustained price increases. Plus, another speech by George W. Bush about elusive "energy independence", some harsh decline rates from British North Sea production and the struggle facing China over their gigantic energy needs. (17 June 2005) The MP3 is here (3.9MB)
13 June 2005 ~
Sunday Herald ~ ".... With oil becoming an economic weapon, there will be no shortage of regime changes, human rights abuses and privately sponsored coup attempts to control the flow of the most precious commodity. Poverty and the needs of the African population will take second place to US geo-political strategy. In the lexicon of aid and trade, the NEPAD agreements and the AGOA, there are only three letters that really matter to the US in Africa, they are O-I-L. ..." (12 June 2005)
12 June 2005 ~
India Daily ~ Oil crisis bring coal driven steam engine back in Indian Railways
12 June 2005 ~
Oilcast 7 (audio from June 8) ~ Oil demand outstripped supply in the first quarter of 2005. The audio report looks at the Shell Scenarios report, a French government round-up 'Oil Industry 2004' that takes a long look at 'Peak Oil' theory.. and quotes "supply tightness right along the chain.."
12 June 2005 ~
BBC ~ More than 100 cyclists have been riding around London naked, in a mass protest against dependency on the oil industry..."
1 June 2005 ~
Washington Monthly ~ (one of the many interesting posts) "...Without factoring social instability into the equations, it's all kind of moot, isn't it? I mean, we've invested roughly $300 billion and 1,600 lives to keep Iraqi oil flowing, and so far, there's no guarantee we'll ever see a steady flow from those fields. Does anyone know if there are studies that include conflict issues as supply limiters, rather than viewing them as symptoms or results of the decline? (I'm guessing that such a study would draw the downslide of the slope a lot sharper...)
29 May 2005 ~
EVworld.com ~ "....the Exxon Mobil Corporation, one of the world's largest publicly owned petroleum companies, has quietly joined the ranks of those who are predicting an impending plateau in non-OPEC oil production. Their report, The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View, forecasts a peak in just five years. ..."
21 May 2005 ~
www.prleap.com ~ "...... it would be a disgrace if those who know about Peak Oil didn't make their most determined attempt to educate everyone else about it. It would be letting them down and it would be letting ourselves down. We want to see leadership on this issue, but that leadership is going to have to come from every individual. We cannot wait for government action."
17 May 2005 ~
EnergyBulletin.net ~ "....Mike Miller, president of Michigan-based Miller Energy Inc., whose company is part of a joint venture in Utah that made what could turn out to be the largest onshore find of oil in the United States in 30 years, instead expresses his concerns about the eventual depletion of oil and gas. If the Utah discovery turns out to be a billion barrels as touted--Miller isn't putting any number on it yet--it would provide only enough oil to supply the world for 12 days at the current rate of consumption.."
16 May 2005 ~
- Following the US leadership in competing for remaining resources through wars;
- Wishful thinking that the market or science will come to the rescue;
- Assuming that we are already in the early stages of disintegration, devoting our energies to preserving the most worthwhile cultural achievements of the past few centuries.
- "Powering down" - reducing energy resource use drastically through economic sacrifice, reducing the population size and developing alternative energy sources.
Read in full
Energy Bulletin.net ~ ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and gas) member, Jean Laherrhre will be presenting on the topic "Forecasting production from discovery" at the ASPO 2005 conference in Lisbon. The following document is quite technical, includes a critical evaluation of the work of M. King Hubbert, and a new projection of Peak Oil in 2008.
Energy Bulletin.net ~ "....The CIA has always kept a close watch on resources. They found that peak oil would provide the US and the world with an 'unprecedented risk and management problem'. "They say if they have 10 years to prepare, the economic and social chaos could be minimised. But if it's less, the US will face a serious problem and the government will have to manage it without public input. For that, read martial law. The report found oil price volatility will increase to unprecedented levels," Heinberg said. . .." "It's too late to maintain a 'business as usual' attitude.
Natural gas extraction will peak a few years after oil, extraction rates for coal will peak in decades, nuclear energy is dogged by unresolved problems of waste disposal and solar and wind energy will have to undergo rapid expansion if they are to replace even a fraction of the energy shortfall from oil. And the enthusiasm about a hydrogen economy comes from politics rather than science, he said..."
Heinberg sketches four main options
13 May 2005 ~
Resource Investor.com ~ "Matthew R. Simmons says the world is blindly and blithely racing toward an energy crisis rooted in false assumptions about plentiful Saudi Arabian oil reserves. Simmons says that provided "disbelief is suspended", the problem can be dealt with, but not before prices surge to crimp demand. How soon could the crisis manifest? It already has to an extent, but Simmons believes the fourth quarter of this year will see the first real crunch as global demand reaches 86 - 87 million barrels per day, which is 2 - 4 million barrels short of projected supply. He believes that rebalancing the market would require tapping stocks for 180 - 360 million barrels, which simply does not exist. Simmons disagrees with recent analyst reports of oil prices spiking to record highs, because it implies a quick retracement off a high. Rather, he sees prices surging to progressively higher plateaus..."
7 May 2005 ~
Church Falls newsPress ~ ".....On average the food currently on an American table has been transported some 1,500 miles. On a world scale, with heavy constraints on fertilization and irrigation, there simply will not be enough food to support the 6.4 billion people currently on earth..." Read in full
4 May 2005 ~
Christian Science Monitor ~ ".....Even security-minded critics worry that not enough is being done. Like President Bush, Mr. Woolsey applauds research into futuristic hydrogen-powered cars, but that won't meet today's security concerns, he says. "Our transportation systems are so locked into oil now and the existing infrastructure, that there's a serious risk of terrorist interruption of that infrastructure in ways that could be catastrophic." He worries that a single terrorist attack on, say, a large Saudi refinery could cut 10 percent of the world's current oil supply - and send prices soaring.
"Even if prices got no higher, or even came down some, sending tens of billions of dollars overseas to people determined to destroy us is crazy, no matter the price of oil," says Frank Gaffney Jr., president of the Center for Security Policy, a national security think tank.....
*PROJECTIONS; SOURCE: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION; SCOTT WALLACE - STAFF
2 May 2005 ~
The online petition "Peak Oil Production & Decline - Raising awareness and discussion of the consequences and solutions"target=new (opens in new window) ~ calls on the UK Government to do such things as ".... recognise the importance of oil and gas in agriculture and therefore address how food will be grown and distributed in the future."
1 May 2005 ~
Sunday Herald ~ ".....Chairman of Simmons & Co, the independent energy investment bank he founded in 1974, Simmons is about to publish a book - Twilight In The Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock And The World Economy - in which he outlines the fruits of his painstaking research into the true extent of Saudi oil reserves. Simmons studied some 200 petroleum engineering reports on the biggest oil fields in Saudi, a nation which boasts 25% of world reserves. "It was the most exhausting project of my life like putting together a complex patchwork quilt," he says. He found "a smoking gun" - no evidence of major new finds beyond a limited "golden triangle" and clear evidence of major fields entering decline...."
30 April 2005 ~
prleap.com ~ "UK Citizens call on government to act on 'Peak Oil'....a new petition entitled "Peak Oil Production & Decline - Raising awareness and discussion of the consequences and solutions" has officially been launched (Thursday 28th April 2005) by Powerswitch.org.uk to call on UK government to prepare for the serious economic, social and cultural adjustment of the twenty first century caused by global oil depletion. .."
27 April 2005 ~
San Fransisco Bay.com ~ (on the ecological disaster brought about by Texaco in Ecuador. The rainforest Chernobyl Amazonians threatened with extinction address ChevronTexaco shareholders in San Ramon - and illustrate how the quest for dwindling oil reserves poses a global threat. ) "...as it gets harder and harder to extract oil from below the earth, companies will go to greater and greater lengths - with the potential for even further environmental disaster and human tragedy - to find those last few drops. .."
26 April 2005 ~
www.energybulletin.net ~ George Monbiot today: "Alternative technology permits us to imagine that we can build our way out of trouble. ...there is no sustainable way of meeting current projections for energy demand. The only strategy in any way compatible with environmentalism is one led by a vast reduction in total use. .."
www.fromthewilderness.com ~ A DVD of "The End of Suburbia - Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream " can be ordered online.
24 April 2005 ~
www.news.com.au ~ "US President George W. Bush will press Saudi Arabia to control rocketing oil prices when he meets the country's de facto leader, Crown Prince Abdullah, at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. ....the US public has viewed the House of Saud with growing scepticism since the September 11 attacks, in which 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis. With continuing fighting in Iraq, unrest over the US push for democracy in the Middle East and Israeli-Palestinian relations in a new phase, the agenda for the two-way talks would have been crowded even without the crisis over sky-high oil prices, which is putting domestic pressure on Mr Bush and slowing global economic growth. .... A report by Goldman Sachs sent energy prices soaring last month when it warned that oil markets could be entering a "super spike", with the price of crude reaching $US105 a barrel. .."
23 April 2005 ~
www.ndtv.com ~ "Oil prices have shot above $55 a barrel amid technically triggered buying and supply worries sparked by refinery snags and a terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia. .."
22 April 2005 ~
Guardian ~ John Vidal in the Guardian is taking the peak oil question very seriously indeed. .."Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye.."
"the business of estimating oil reserves is contentious and political. According to Campbell, companies seldom report their true findings for commercial reasons, and governments - which own 90% of the reserves - often lie...."The first half of the oil age now closes," says Campbell. "It lasted 150 years and saw the rapid expansion of industry, transport, trade, agriculture and financial capital, allowing the population to expand six-fold. The second half now dawns, and will be marked by the decline of oil and all that depends on it, including financial capital.....There is no company on the stock exchange that doesn't make a tacit assumption about the availability of energy. It is almost impossible for bankers to accept it. It is so out of their mindset."
."
20 April 2005 ~
Greencarcongress.com ~ Maryland Congressman Roscoe Bartlett delivered the second of his presentations on peak oil to Congress on Tuesday, 19 April. Congressman Bartlett discussed the need for the U.S. to rapidly develop alternative energy sources.
17 April 2005 ~
Oil Depletion Analysis Centre ~ "A one-day conference on the approaching peak and decline in global oil supplies will take place at the Royal Museum of Scotland in Edinburgh on Monday, 25 April. Increasingly, analysts are forecasting that global oil production could reach its all-time peak before the end of this decade mirroring the now established pattern of UK North Sea production, and marking a critical turning point when ever-diminishing supplies will challenge the world's economic and social well-being as never before. Amid mounting concern now about rising oil prices and rapidly growing demand, six leading experts will discuss the Peak Oil problem and its far-reaching economic, social and political implications..."
Sunday Herald ~ "The world faces a global oil supply shortage after 2007, which would threaten economic growth, according to new research by the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (Odac) which says that not enough major new fields will come on stream to offset declines . "(full)
13 April 2005 ~
Al Jazeera ~ "Speculation over the actual size of Saudi Arabia's oil reserves is reaching fever pitch as a major bank says the kingdom's - and the world's - biggest field, Gharwar, is in irreversible decline. The Bank of Montreal's analyst Don Coxe, working from their Chicago office, is the first mainstream number-cruncher to say that Gharwar's days are fated. "
9 April 2005 ~
Energy Bulletin.net ~ "So if the head of San Ramon's ChevronTexaco is prepared to gamble more than 16 billion bucks on oil prices staying at stratospheric levels, I'm ready to give him the benefit of the doubt.
And reading between the lines, that means only one thing.
Peak oil.
We're basically there. .
...Amos Nur, a professor of geophysics at Stanford University, told me that if we're not at peak oil right now, "we're in the neighborhood."
......."There are still many things we can do," Nur said. "But every day that passes, it's going to get more difficult."
Without a coordinated global commitment to managing the consequences of peak oil, he said, the scope of the looming problems is almost too vast to contemplate.
"We're running out of time," Nur concluded. "Look at how oil prices are going up. We're already in panic mode."
...."
International Herald Tribune ~ ".... China's voracious demand for energy, which the U.S. government expects to grow 12 percent this year, has made it the second-largest oil consumer after the United States. Rapidly rising ownership of motor vehicles in China and other fast-growing Asian nations underpin this trend, the IMF said. At the same time, major oil-producing nations have been unable to pump oil fast enough to build up depleted stocks, casting doubt on their ability to alter supply and keep prices stable, Rajan said. "In short, it's going to be a rocky ride forward," the IMF research director said."
6 April 2005 ~
Toronto Sun ~ "...Richard Heinberg, in his 2003 book, The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies, predicts a peak in 2007 or 2008. Others cite later dates -- like British Petroleum exploration consultant Francis Harper, who believes the peak will happen between 2010 and 2015. Peter Odell of Erasmus University in the Netherlands sets a date of 2035. And the U.S. Department of Energy is far more optimistic. Washington believes there won't be a peak until 2037. No matter. Unless strong action is taken to wean the world from oil, the fallout is real, they warn....."
5 April 2005 ~
www.gnn.tv ~ " The peak oil idea -- which says that world oil production will go into irreversible decline sometime in the next decade or two -- is quickly morphing into conventional wisdom. ....over the past half century, country after country has seen its oil production hit a peak and start dropping. Yet for decades, economists, petroleum executives and government officials refused to follow Hubbert's analysis to its logical conclusion - that in the easily foreseeable future, humanity will pass over a global peak of oil production, where there awaits a very grim, slippery slope. ..."
4 April 2005 ~
Energy Bulletin ~ "As fuel costs skyrocket, many businesses are struggling ...Eventually, the cost of fuel will show up in the supermarkets. It's too late for Cameron to negotiate a better price for his tomatoes this year -- the contract was locked in months ago -- but farmers will build fuel costs into future negotiations, he said. The typical grocery bill will rise. "It's going to have to go up," he said. "You're going to have to see major changes in the food prices."
3 April 2005 ~
www.obviousnews.com ~ "...Oil will continue to pressure markets this week as crude threatens to break the most recent record high prices established in March. Prices took off again late last week despite increasing crude supplies in the U.S. - and the feeling that prices had peaked. That feeling evaporated for many investors after a note from Goldman Sachs analysts on Thursday heralding a possible "super spike" in prices to as high as $105 US a barrel. "That debate is still raging," said Patricia Croft, chief economist and vice-president at Phillips, Hager and North. ..."
Greencarcongress.com ~ "Rep. Bartlett will be giving another Peak Oil related presentation to the US Congress the week of 11 April, the exact date and time still to be decided..."
1 April 2005 ~
BBC ~ "Goldman Sachs said that the oil market may be in the early stages of a "super spike", which could push prices as high as $105 a barrel. It said strong global demand, allied to potential instability in oil producing countries, could inflate prices. .."
March 30 2005 ~
Money Cnn ~ ".... if there is supply disruption, there is not a lot of wiggle room as far as what OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries can do to boost production if needed. Spare capacity is really the key question," said John Brady, an energy broker at ABN Amro in New York. Output from OPEC is close to a 25-year high and non-OPEC producers are pumping at full tilt, leaving little in the supply chain for any output hitch."
March 29 2005 ~
Seattlepi.nwsource.com ~ (Matthew) "Simmons recently investigated Saudi Arabia's ability to continue producing large quantities of oil and has a book scheduled to appear at the end of May titled "Twilight In The Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock And The World Economy."
March 25 2005 ~
Christian Science Monitor ~ "....as gasoline prices soar again...some Americans may be expecting another influx of Mideast cash. They shouldn't. The petrodollar is losing its international clout...
...International Energy Agency in Paris expects growth in demand to slow to 1.5 million b.p.d this year. That may not be enough to trim prices."
english.aljazeera.net ~ "The International Energy Agency is to propose drastic cutbacks in car use to halt continuing oil-supply problems. Those cutbacks include anything from car-pooling to outright police-enforced driving bans for citizens. Fuel "emergency supply disruptions and price shocks" - in other words, shortages - could be met by governments. .."
March 24 2005 ~
Reuters ~ "...A powerful explosion at a BP oil refinery in Texas turned the complex into a raging inferno where at least 14 people died and another 100 were injured on Wednesday. The blast at the giant 470,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) facility, the third-largest in the United States, was isolated to a unit used to upgrade the quality of gasoline, with the rest of the refinery operating normally, BP said. U.S. gasoline prices spiked to an all-time high above $1.60 a gallon as dealers feared a cut in supplies from the plant, which produces about 3 percent of the nation's gasoline. .."
Money Cnn.com ~ "Stocks ended a tumultuous session mixed Wednesday, as falling oil prices failed to dent persistent worries about a pickup in inflation."
March 23 2005 ~
EnergyBulletin.net "A brave new oily world by Kathleen Hays, CNN. ... global bond and stock markets remain fixated on petroleum prices..... I asked Joe Terranova, director of trading for MBF Clearing Corp., why oil keeps going up and up. "Simple, the cat is out of the bag!" according to Joe. "Traders now recognize, for the first time since oil futures have traded, that there truly exists a demand to supply problem."
March 22 2005 ~
Reuters ~ " OPEC oil producers will not need to decide for up to two weeks whether to increase production quotas further to cool high oil prices, the group's president said on Tuesday. "Not in the immediate future. At least 10-14 days to two weeks," Kuwait's Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah told Reuters when asked when OPEC could implement a possible new rise in quotas. .."
Tom Dispatch ~ "....another indicator of diminished expectations for major new discoveries. "If they had attractive things to invest in, they'd be investing their little heads off," explained PFC Energy managing director Gerald Kepes. But the great exploration opportunities of yesteryear "have largely dried up."
It is true, of course, that the private energy firms are largely barred from investment in Mexico, Venezuela, and the Persian Gulf countries, where oilfield development is the exclusive prerogative of state-owned companies. Hence, a major goal of the Bush administration's energy policy is to persuade or compel these countries to open up their territories to exploration by U.S. firms..."
March 20 2005 ~
Al Jazeera ~ This report is the clearest signal yet that the U.S government is taking the subject of "peak oil" seriously. .... this brand new senior-level report on "peak oil" is unprecedented in US government circles. It is not just the existence of the report itself that is such a landmark in the current oil debate. Its conclusions also pull no punches.....The authors of the report also dismiss the power of the markets to solve any oil peak. They call for the intervention of governments. But also they rather worryingly point to a need to exclude public debate and environmental concerns from the process. They say this is needed to speed up decision-making.
March 19 2005 ~
New York Times ~ "...there is not much OPEC can do. Its 11 members are pumping close to 29 million barrels a day and do not have much more production capacity left to tap. Saudi Arabia, which has been pumping 9.5 million barrels a day since the beginning of the year, can add another million barrels or so, but the oil is mostly heavy crude that is less in demand. All the others in OPEC can do is count their record revenues and plan expansions. But as it is, some countries - including Iran, Indonesia, Venezuela and Libya - are struggling to meet production quotas.
London Free Press ~ "Although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed Wednesday to boost its output quota by 500,000 barrels a day, or 1.9 per cent, the market brushed off the decision. Since members are already producing above their quotas, no extra supply will actually be added, analysts said...."
March 18 2005 ~
Presentation to US Congress on Peak Oil , March 14 2005~ "... I kind of think that hoping to solve our energy problems with fusion is a bit like you or me hoping to solve our personal financial problems by winning the lottery. That would be real nice. I think the odds are somewhere near the same. I am about as likely to win the lottery as we are to come to economically feasible fusion. I hope I am wrong. Frequently my hopes and my anticipations are different. My anticipation is we are not going to get there because of the enormous engineering challenges. My hope is I am wrong and we are going to get there. ..there is the potential here in nuclear, but a lot of problems involved with it. It is not just that simple. By the way, it takes a lot of oil to build a nuclear power plant. ." Read in full
March 17 2005 ~
Business Week.com ~"Oil prices jumped to a new record above $56 a barrel on Wednesday when traders reacted to shrinking fuel supplies in the United States and brushed off a largely symbolic effort by OPEC to cool the red-hot market."
March 16 2005 ~
Bloomberg.com ~ ".....What will happen after the OPEC meeting is that they will all be producing at capacity,'' said Kenneth Deffeyes, professor emeritus of petroleum geology at Princeton University and author of the book Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. "OPEC is irrelevant,'' Deffeyes said in an interview in New York. "Saudi Arabia has little or no production capacity beyond what it has been using in recent months, and pumping fields faster may damage them," said Deffeyes, who predicts that global oil output has peaked and will begin to decline..."
March 15 2005 ~
Bloomberg.com ~ "OPEC ministers from Algeria and Libya rejected Saudi Arabia's plan to increase oil production, saying the group can do nothing to control this year's surge in oil prices.."
Scoop.co.nz ~ "... if we turn out to be wrong then we merely look silly. However if the detractors are wrong, if the fountain of eternal energy, whatever that might be, is not found soon then the western civilisation we all know and love, contingently reliant upon oil to feed, clothe, house and medicate itself is about to end. .."
14 March 2005 ~
Energy Bulletin net ~ ".... figures suggest that a dramatic but not widely publicised regional shift away from the US dollar is under way.
They follow a warning from Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi that the Japanese central bank should consider diversifying out of US dollars. Korea expressed similar sentiments last month.
The report said the shift had been most pronounced in India, where the ratio of reported US-dollar holdings has plummeted from around 68 per cent to 43 per cent over the three years to September 2004. China has also been scaling back its holdings, taking its share from 83 per cent to 68 per cent..."
11 March 2005 ~
The Times ~"....If supply continues to struggle to keep up, more policy attention may come to be directed at oil demand intensity in our economies and alternatives," the report said.
However, fuel taxes, the typical means for countries to stem demand for oil, were "not the only option so that people use less energy", Lawrence Eagles, the report's author, told Times Online.
The employment of fuel efficiency measures championed in many European countries, and focuses on high-consumption devices such as power showers, could help stem the demand for oil...."
9 March 2005 ~
Business Day NZ ~ "......Simmons believes oil is "far too cheap" and should be about $182 a barrel. The only way to control demand is to price oil realistically, allowing for time to find fuels to fill the gap between an oil economy and a renewable fuel economy. Large new oil fields are ever more difficult to find and Campbell says endless growth is not possible. The adherents of the "peak oil theory" warn that the decline of world oil output will force oil prices higher for good, and that the knock-on effects could be catastrophic. .." Read in full
The Australian News ~ "OiL prices brushed within US60 cents of a new record over $US55 a barrel overnight as cold weather boosted fuel demand in US Northeast, the world's largest heating oil market. Growing signals that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would not increase output at its meeting in Iran next week and weakness in the US dollar also bolstered prices. U.S. light crude for prompt-month delivery rose US70 cents to $US54.59 a barrel - the second highest settlement on record on the New York Mercantile Exchange --after climbing within US60 cents of the $US55.67 peak. .."
Times ~ "...current prices are shaving about a full point off the growth America might be experiencing had Opec been content with its previous target ceiling. That, and constraints on its foreign-policy flexibility, are high prices to pay for the administration's refusal to develop a policy to reduce dependence on foreign oil." (Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute Sunday Times Feb 27 2005)
8 March 2005 ~
All Africa.com ~ "...Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Saturday that OPEC could fix the price at between $40 to $50 per barrel. "The world should forget about cheap oil. It will never go back to the $10 per barrel rate that prevailed in those days," he said, adding that low petroleum prices were a thing of the past..."
7 March 2005 ~
Globe and Mail (Canada) ~ ".....China, on the hunt for new sources of crude as its need for imports soars... is taking an increasingly bigger role, not only as a partner in exploration, but as a new market for Venezuelan crude. The Chinese need for new oil supplies is meshing with Venezuela's desire.... to wean itself from depending on the U.S. market for sales of its crude and gasoline.
..... pressure brought to bear on giant U.S. oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., including increasing royalties by nearly 17-fold last fall. A prominent Venezuelan expatriate says the government is targeting supermajors such as Exxon to retaliate against the Bush administration, which Mr. Chavez has accused of.... plotting to kill him. ..."
6/7 March 2005 ~
Herald Sun ~ "Iran and Venezuela - two of the world's major oil nations - have responded to US policy to get tough on rogue states by threatening to cut supplies to world markets. Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez also said the world should forget about any return to cheap oil prices. ... Iran's top nuclear official Hassan Rowhani said an oil crisis would result for the US and Europe if Tehran was taken before the UN security council over its nuclear program. He rejected outright both US and European demands for Iran to halt uranium enrichment. .."
5/6 March 2005 ~
Times of Oman ~ Venezuelan President Hugo " Chavez is to sign long-term pacts in the oil and gas sector with India ...Indian state-run firms are seeking investment opportunity in foreign oil and gas projects as domestic reserves, which meet just 30 per cent of the total requirement, are shrinking, while demand is rising. .."
Times of Oman ~".. Iran's top nuclear official on Saturday warned the United States and Europe of the danger of an oil crisis if Tehran is sent before the UN Security Council over its nuclear programme, rejecting outright their demands to halt uranium enrichment. Taking the matter to the Security Council would be "playing with fire", Hassan Rowhani, whose country is the second largest oil producer in OPEC, told reporters. "The first to suffer will be Europe and the United States themselves, this would cause problems for the regional energy market, for the European economy and even more so for the United States," Rowhani said at a conference in Tehran on nuclear technology and sustainable development. EU members Britain, France and Germany are trying to convince Iran to dismantle nuclear fuel work -- which the United States says is part of a covert atomic weapons development -- in return for economic and political rewards..."
3 March 2005 ~
Channel news Asia ~ "SINGAPORE: High global oil prices are spurring Asian governments into accelerating their search for alternative power sources and encouraging energy conservation, regional officials said here. Governments are increasingly diversifying their "fuel mix" to cut dependence on imported oil by developing other power sources such as natural gas, geo-thermal, hydro, liquefied natural gas and renewable fuels, they said. ."
Channel News Asia ~ "The price of Brent North Sea crude oil rocketed to a new record high of 53 dollars per barrel here Thursday on strong fund buying following a decline in US natural gas inventories and bullish OPEC comments, traders said. In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude oil for delivery in April surged 1.78 dollars to 53 dollars per barrel in late afternoon deals. .."
Business Week.com ~ "....Oil prices climbed to near $55 a barrel Thursday as concerns about global demand growth and supply tightness underpinned bullish market psychology, though some traders said they were stunned by how rapidly crude futures have advanced.
Cold weather, the weak dollar and jitters about an upcoming OPEC meeting have contributed to the recent rise in prices. However, many brokers say speculative buying by large institutional investors -- as opposed to commercial trading by petroleum producers and refiners -- is magnifying the move higher...."
1 March 2005 ~
Channel News Asia ~"....OPEC president Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah said Monday he would propose maintaining the cartel's current production ceiling at the meeting but would urge consideration of an increase if prices continued to rise.
"Because prices are still high, we think we have to support the idea of continuing with our ceiling and, if prices go higher, even with that, we have to study maybe increasing our production if it's necessary," said Sheikh Ahmad, who is also energy minister of Kuwait.
On Tuesday, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said that rising oil prices were a threat to the global economy. "
scoop.co.nz ~ "......As the price oil again surges out beyond US$50bbl we ought to remind ourselves that the price has increased almost 300% since 1999. Our Governments inability to see and react to this trend let alone consider the evidence that the demand for oil is surpassing the maximum available supply is deeply disturbing. The attitude is clearly indicative of a collective ostrich mentality to an eminent crisis. Such blind adherence to current economic dogma combined with a reckless sense of bravado in regard to technological solution finding is reminiscent of the captain at the helm of the Titanic..."
25 Feb 2005 ~
.emediawire.com ~ Legislative Forum on Peak Oil and Its Consequences - "Every informed analysis of the future of petroleum leads to the same conclusion", said David Ahlfeld, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst. "The United States should be dramatically reducing its reliance on energy-intensive housing, transportation and food supplies and moving rapidly towards transition to new energy sources." Read in full
24 Feb 2005 ~
Whtehaven News ~ Peter Clements, the leader of the biggest Sellafield union has criticised the UK Government for dithering over the nation's future power. "Depletion of UK oil and gas reserves which means we will be importing up to 80% of our gas by 2020, and this from countries with potential cultural and political instabilities... the increased reliance on imported gas brings the prospect of long interruptions of supply, whether through technical problems or political instability with being at the end of a long pipe line from Russia to Western Europe. "While we support the further investment in a balanced energy policy, it should be recognised that renewables such as wind power also brings with it concerns of intermittency and inefficiency."
Business Week.com ~ ".... Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi.....said in an interview with CNBC that he expected oil prices to remain between $40 and $50 a barrel throughout 2005.
Several analysts said they expect the average for 2005 to be in the upper end of that range.....strong global demand and limited spare capacity continue to keep traders on edge about possible supply disruptions in any number of oil producing nations. Saboteurs in Iraq have regularly targeted oil pipelines. Labor unrest in Nigeria threatens that country's output. There are also concerns about output growth in Russia and Venezuela. .."
"If there's any kind of disturbance in the Middle East, you're easily going to see $60 a barrel," said Carl Larry, an analyst at Barclays Capital in New York..."
23 Feb 2005 ~
Freezerbox.com ~ ".....Oil fuels 95 percent of all transportation and a significant portion of global food production. Industrial societies are dependent on a vast, steady flow of inexpensive petroleum for just about everything we make and do. Disrupt this flow, and modern society as we know it is inconceivable.
Global demand for oil has increased sevenfold over the past 50 years. In 1986 human beings consumed about 54 million barrels of oil each day. Today we use about 82 million. ....The U.S. Dept. of Energy estimates that the world will require 120 million barrels a day by 2025. To meet that demand we must find the equivalent of 10 new North Sea oil fields within a decade.."
Forbes ~ "Crude oil futures prices fell but remained above the $51 a barrel level on Wednesday after a big spike in the previous session as traders fretted about the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar on energy markets.."
21 Feb 2005 ~
EnglishAljazeera.net ~ "As oil stubbornly refuses to fall below $45 a barrel, a major market mover has cast a worrying future prediction. Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil"..."
14 Feb 2005 ~
Telegraph ~ "India is fighting China in the battle for Russian oil by angling for a supply deal and a stake in Yuganskneftegaz, the oil unit that was seized from Yukos and is now owned by Rosneft, the state oil company..."
13 Feb 2005 ~
Masslive.com ~ "....with America's oil dependency becoming a dangerous addiction, with the smokestacks of coal and oil-fired power plants adding daily to global warming, with the promise of the alternatives - solar, wind, tidal, hydrogen, fusion, etc. - never really fulfilled, it may not be that nuclear power is coming up in the world. It may only be that everything else is going down. ...
what is driving the renewed interest in nuclear power?
Primarily two issues - oil and global warming. With oil, the basic equation tells it all. The global demand is growing, driven by developing economies in places like China, and the global supply is diminishing.
Many argue that America's future economic security relies on ridding itself of its dependency on oil and on the unstable nations that produce it as soon as possible. ..
." Read in full
12 Feb 2005 ~
Reuters ~ "Faster-than-expected demand growth has eased pressure for OPEC to consult on supply cuts ahead of the group's mid-March meeting but not eliminated the possibility of early action, OPEC's acting Secretary-General Adnan Shihab-Eldin told Reuters in an interview. After agreeing to keep production levels unchanged at its January 30 meeting, OPEC ministers said they could consult by telephone on potential production cuts before a March 16 meeting in Isfahan, Iran, if they saw signs that stocks were building to levels that would pressure prices."
Malaysia Star ~ "... oil's six-year price boom has failed to open the floodgates and a lag in non-Opec supply growth has heightened the need for the cartel's own supplies. The IEA this week raised its forecast call on Opec crude for the year by 300,000 bpd to 28.3 million bpd. Last year's average call was 28.2 million bpd. .."
11 Feb 2005 ~
Search and Discovery.net ~ "....modern energy industry has experienced many discontinuities and has evolved to meet the challenges. The next stage of the energy business will be its greatest challenge as corporations try to meet the never ending demand for new sources of oil and gas as old fields are depleted. These changes in the global energy balance have the potential for geopolitical (Nations) environmental, economic and security disruptions worldwide. Recognizing and facing energy realities, learning from history and developing an integrated plan is critical for an industry that requires lead times of 10-15 years. Such a plan must include international relations - trade, global, economics, massive up front investment, innovative science and applied technology (Industry - Academic - Government). .." Arthur R Green, Chief Geoscientist, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, TX, Retired
7 Feb 2005 ~
IndiaDaily ~ ".....China secretly loaned Russia US Dollar 6.0 Billion to nationalize the Yukos oil company. International think tanks suggest that soon Russia-China strategic partnership will form a NATO type military and G7 type economic alliance. India and Brazil will be invited to join the alliance..."
6 Feb 2005 ~
Kunstler speech ~ ".....England is now becoming a new oil importer again after a 20 year fiesta. The implications are very grim. Now, some of the most knowledgeable geologists in the world believe we have reached the global oil production peak. Unlike the US oil industry, the foreign producers do not give out their production data so transparently. We may never actually see any reliable figures. The global production peak may only show up in the strange behavior of the markets. The global peak is liable to manifest as a "bumpy plateau." Prices will wobble. Markets will wobble - as the oil markets have been doing the past year...." Read in full
Aljazeerah.com ~ Douglas Low "... It is no coincidence that oil prices are currently high, and up and down like a yo-yo. It is a sure sign that global oil supplies are tight, and that we are very close to the crossover point where oil demand outstrips oil supply. ...... With both the USA and the UK in debt up to their eyeballs funding property booms, there is mounting concern that we are in grave danger of bringing on "the mother of all depressions" and repeating the Crash of '29. If so, ironically, the price of oil will certainly drop again, but only until the next crossover a vicious, destructive cycle that will repeat itself until we learn to use a lot less oil and adopt more sustainable energy systems." Depletion Scotland is holding a one-day conference on global oil depletion in Edinburgh on April 25, 2005. Visit http://www.depletion-scotland.org.uk for further information.
4 Feb 2005 ~
Forbes ~ Venezuela Oil Company to Sell Citgo Assets "Venezuela's state-run oil company Petroleos de Venezuela is preparing to sell its Citgo refining operations in the United States within two years, an oil ministry official said Tuesday. "PDVSA won't get rid of these assets soon. It will take two years to get the sale process on track," said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity."
Time ~ "... the visit to Caracas last week by Chinese Vice President Zeng Qinghong was the latest reminder that Chavez, a sharp critic of U.S. foreign policy, wants to cut Venezuela's dependence on the U.S. market and start exporting to his oil-thirsty ideological ally, China. Talks are under way to build pipelines to pump Venezuelan crude to Pacific ports in Colombia and Panama for that very purpose..."
3 Feb 2005 ~
Reuters~ "Royal Dutch/Shell Group has revived concerns about its oil reserves by making another big reserves cut and reporting disappointing results in finding new oil supplies in 2004.. ... Surging oil prices and strong refining margins pushed Shell's fourth-quarter profits up to $5.127 billion .....Shell's fifth reserves cut in just over a year, and news that new oil discoveries only matched around half the volume of oil Shell pumped last year, weighed on the stock. "Coming to the market so many times and telling us about the oil reserves is not just careless, it's getting a bit predictably boring," said Henk Potts at Barclays Private Clients. Shell's reserves now stand one third below the level originally reported for December 2002. .... Shell has struggled to rebuild investor confidence after its reserves over-booking scandal last year which led to the sacking of top management and raised serious concerns about the company's ability to replace the oil it pumps with new finds. ..... Shell's record earnings prompted anger among trade unions and environmental groups. ."
31 January 2005 ~
Guardian ~ "....Oil company profits have been boosted by high demand from China and by continuing political uncertainty in the Middle East. Though the price of oil has retreated from last year's peaks of more than $50 a barrel, threats of production cuts by producers' cartel Opec are still keeping the price high. Yesterday Opec warned that oil prices, still hovering near $50 a barrel, would remain high throughout the spring. It agreed to keep its production ceiling at 27m barrels a day. ...Shell is expected to use Thursday's results announcement to update investors on developments with its restructuring and on whether it will have to reclassify its reserves for the fifth time after auditors called into question the status of 900m barrels of oil and gas stocks. .."
31 January 2005 ~
IHT.com ~ Thomas L. Friedman: "Cut oil prices and tyrants will fall" - "...there is an alternative to the Euro-wimps and the neocons, and it is the "geo-greens." I am a geo-green. The geo-greens believe that, going forward, if we put all our focus on reducing the price of oil - by conservation, by developing renewable and alternative energies and by expanding nuclear power - we will force more reform than by any other strategy. You give me $18-a-barrel oil and I will give you political and economic reform from Algeria to Iran. All these regimes have huge population bubbles and too few jobs. They make up the gap with oil revenues. Shrink the oil revenue and they will have to open up their economies and their schools and liberate their women so that their people can compete. It is that simple. ..... given today's tight oil market and current U.S. consumption patterns, any kind of U.S. strike on Iran, one of the world's major oil producers, would send the price of oil through the roof, causing real problems for our economy. "Our own energy policy has tied our hands," Haass said..."
30 January 2005 ~
Expressnewsline.com ~"... The London-based Center for Global Energy Studies expects OPEC to target an average price of $40 a barrel for its benchmark oil index. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer and its most influential member, will seek to keep prices above $35 a barrel, said the CGES, which is owned by former Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani. The price of oil has risen by 44 percent in the past year. Crude oil fell Friday, losing $1.66 a barrel, or 3.4 percent, to $47.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on expectations OPEC will do nothing at its meeting..."
25 January 2005 ~
Bloomberg.com ~ "The OPEC meeting, Iraqi elections and tension with Iran and Venezuela are definitely producing a bullish picture,'' said Carl Larry, an associate director of energy futures at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``As weather warms here the international problems will keep prices from falling.'' Vice President Dick Cheney said on the ``Don Imus Show'' on MSNBC that Iran is ``at the top of the list'' of potential trouble spots because of its nuclear program and support for terrorist groups threatens to destabilize the Middle East. He warned that Israel might be prompted to preemptively strike, igniting a war, on the Jan. 20 broadcast. Condoleezza Rice, the incoming U.S. secretary of state criticized Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez at her nomination hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Jan. 18. Chavez, Rice said, is ``a democratically elected leader who governs in an illiberal way.'' Iran and Venezuela are OPEC's second and third biggest oil producers."
Scoop.nz ~ 2005: The Year of Global Oil Production Peak? ....Andrew McKillop (Energy Economist) predicts global oil supply will fail to meet demand within 2-3 years. Colin Campbell and the ASPO (Association for Peak Oil) predicts peak year of 2007. Structural under-supply issues are almost certain to manifest themselves from about now onwards. Supply jitters will ensure continued price spikes moving upwards with occasional shorter downward trends. The Governments belief that oil will sometime move back toward US$20 per barrel will never be confirmed. Kenneth Deffeyes and Jim Kunstler are amongst commentators predicting peak this year (2005). Jeanette Fitzsimons is predicting about 10 years from now. Contrastingly the International "don't scare the horses" Energy Agency is predicting 2037 but this figure assumes we will discover an amount of oil in the order of 4 or more Saudi Arabias over the next decade or so. .."
24 January 2005 ~
Asia Times ~ "the problem of crude oil, which, despite predictions from ever-optimistic financial analysts, has once again begun to approach $50 a barrel. ..." Read in full
22 January 2005 ~
Washington Post ~ Wall Street Reacts Badly to Rising Oil Prices ......major stock indicators fell to their lowest level of the new year Friday as oil prices rose. A barrel of light crude settled at $48.53, up $1.22, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
January 20 2005 ~
Emediawire.com ~ "Post Carbon Institute is assisting Project Agastya and other Bangalore organizations to organize a one-day conference examining the implications of peak oil for India on January 28, 2005. .... Founder of Post Carbon Institute, Mr Julian Darley, stated "this day may well come within this decade". "We use oil in practically every aspect of our lives, from transportation to plastics to food," he said. "We need to prepare for this transition," Mr Darley added. One of the stated objectives of the conference is to create a working group tasked with the organization of an international Workshop/Conference on Peak Oil in middle to late 2005. Mr Darley believes it is important that less industrialized countries begin preparing for an energy- constrained future and that it is especially crucial that India and China, the world's most populous nations, are engaged in conversation and action. For more information the conference, visit http://www.postcarbon.org. "
From the Wilderness.com ~Re Crossing the Rubican. Michael Kane: "... Dick Cheney was well aware of the coming Peak Oil crisis at least as early as 1999, and 9/11 provided the pretext for the series of energy wars that Cheney stated, "will not end in our lifetime." (Click here for a summary of these points)....The Neo-Conservatives, including Dick Cheney, had such a plan: manufacture a crisis - one that had long been imagined as necessary by elite planners inside the national security state - and use it to maintain permanent war to steal the world's last remaining hydrocarbons and temporarily stave off the Peak Oil crisis."
January 16 2005 ~
Scoop.com ~ "....there will be absolute shortages, no matter what you are prepared to pay. The cost of farming, fishing, manufacturing and international trade will skyrocket, and our international markets will no longer be able to afford our butter.
..... For many years, we have been burning four times as much as we have been finding. When you look beyond the oil companies to independent, experienced petroleum geologists, you find a consensus that we may well have less than ten years before we reach this terrible tipping point. The end of cheap oil is coming towards us with the force of a tsunami...it is peak oil that is causing an unprecedented attack on the human values that we have, until now, associated with civilisation. History tells us that when civilisations are threatened, empires get nasty. It should come as no surprise, then, that the United States - an empire dependent on oil - is doing everything in its power to secure the world's fast dwindling oil reserves, even though that means trampling on the very freedoms it purports to uphold.
Peak oil is the reason for the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Peak oil is the reason for the war on terrorism, designed to make us so afraid of being bombed by Islamic fundamentalists that we co-operate in the destruction of our own freedoms. And peak oil is the reason our government, in acquiescing to US fear-mongering over 9/11, has pursued legislation under which you may be imprisoned without charge or fair trial, you may have your assets seized without proof of guilt, and you may be denied information on what you are even accused of, and denied a passport in your own country. .."
January 13 2005 ~
Sitnews.com ~ "...." ..the effects of an oil shortage can be immediate and drastic, while it may take years, perhaps decades, to replace the vast infrastructure that supports the manufacture, distribution, and consumption of the products of the twenty million barrels of oil we Americans alone gobble up each day."
.....
..."There are plenty of challenges with hydrogen now, but my assumption is that over the next several decades those can be worked out," Fisher said.
Goldstein said there is no magic bullet to replace oil, but nuclear power is one of the most favorable energies for the transition time between oil and whatever next fuels our cars and keeps our wall sockets working.
"The best hope for our civilization lies in technologies that have not yet arisen," Goldstein wrote. "Most likely, progress will lie in incremental advances . . . based on principles we already understand: controlled nuclear fusion, safe breeder reactors, better materials for manipulating electricity, more efficient fuel cells, better means of generating hydrogen, and so on. Developing those technologies will require a massive, focused commitment to scientific and technological research. That is a commitment we have not yet made. We urgently need to make it."
...."
January 12 2005 ~
IndiaDaily.com ~ "...If there is a solid knock out type terrorism in Saudi Arabia, the expatriate worker population will leave and the Saudi oil will get stuck right in the Arabian peninsula escalating oil price to level imagined before.....According to international think tanks an increasing number of North American technical experts have backed out of projects for prominent oil companies in the kingdom because of similar security concerns. ..."
January 2 2005 ~
EV World.com ~ "The dawn of 2005 sees the economies of the western world, especially that of the USA, more dependent on foreign oil than ever before. This is a recipe for disaster...Hubbert's Peak should concern us all, but there is a much more pressing problem that should be driving us to cut our dependence on foreign oil.... In the July 28 edition of the London newspaper The Observer they stated "Saudi Arabia is teetering on the brink of collapse, fuelling Foreign Office fears of an extremist takeover of one of the West's key allies in the war on terror." While "brink of collapse" is a bit strong, the overthrow of the House of Saud is a very real threat, and it will not only impact the war on terror but could shake the very foundation of western economic stability..."
December 30 2004 ~
New York Post ~ "Crude oil rose almost $2 as explosions in Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh, boosted concern about security of oil facilities in the world's biggest oil exporter.."
December 29 2004 ~
New York Post ~ "... Khodorkovsky wrote that the Yukos seizure "is the most senseless and destructive event for the economy in all of Putin's time in power." ..... The Yukos scandal also disrupted global oil supplies last summer, and helped send oil prices climbing to a record $55 a barrel in October. .... Put on the block by the Russian government because of $27.5 billion in back tax claims, the oil group was bought on Dec. 19 by the previously unknown Baikal Finance Group for $9.4 billion. Last week, Russian state oil firm Rosneft said it had bought Baikal, effectively nationalizing the oil assets. "
December 27 2004 ~
Daily Press.com ~ ".... the pessimists are almost all experienced petroleum geologists. ..Annual world oil discovery rates peaked in the early '60s at more than 40 billion barrels per year (bbl/yr), but since then have steadily declined to under 8 billion bbl/yr. By contrast, world oil demand continues to grow, due especially to accelerating industrial development in China and India....it seems we are destined to experience major oil price increases inevitably accompanied by economic recession. As nations compete for their slice of the shrinking oil pie, tensions will escalate and current fault lines on the political landscape will be exacerbated. All indications are that the wolf is finally getting uncomfortably close to our door."
December 18 2004 ~
Chattanoogan.com ~ "Bob Robbins, economics forecaster from Atlanta, said America has put too much reliance on foreign oil and continues to pay the price. Mr. Robbins told the Civitan Club on Friday he would not be surprised if oil hits $100 per barrel. He noted it is a finite resource, and said peak production is nearing..."
December 17 2004 ~
BBC ~ "Russian oil firm Yukos is thrown a lifeline in its battle to keep control of key assets after a US judge grants an injunction halting the sale its main production division."
December 16 2004 ~
Guardian ~ "Russian oil giant Yukos yesterday increased the stakes in its battle with the Kremlin when it filed for bankruptcy in the United States .....Analysts believe the Kremlin wants to sell off Yuganskneftegaz to loyal gas giant Gazprom in order to create a state energy giant. .....Fadel Gheit, a respected oil analyst with Oppenheimer & Co brokerage in New York, said he could not recall seeing a foreign firm initially filing for bankruptcy in the US where it had few assets. "I think they are clearly trying to take advantage of discord between the Kremlin and White House over the Ukrainian elections, though I don't think the Kremlin will blink," he argued."
Washington Times ~ "...Ukraine's economy is desperate for extra revenue. Amid weeks of political unrest stemming from a disputed Nov. 21 runoff for the presidency, the state budget has fallen about $216 million short of expected revenues. A rate increase could risk retaliatory measures from Moscow, which could cut back on oil exports to Ukraine and disrupt the country's economy."
December 15 2004 ~
Pasadena Star ~ "The subject was oil: how much of it is left and when the world's supply will run out. And when a panel of experts sought to explore the topic at the normally low-key meeting of the American Geophysical Union here, the message became ominous and the discussion heated. ...Deffeyes said the numbers in the USGS report had been politically influenced. "I find the methodology (of the report) flawed,' he said.. ."
Live Science.com ~ ".....It's a behind-the-scenes sort of panic. The two largest economies on Earth -- China and the United States -- have already incorporated the finite nature of oil into their national security policies, Nur argues, citing policy statements from both governments reflecting the need to secure stability in oil-producing countries and a free flow of the resource. The war in Iraq, a country second only to politically unstable Saudi Arabia in oil reserves, is another clue, he said.
"There is a huge conflict that might be emerging," Nur said.
...... none of the roughly 500 scientists in the room voiced disagreement with Nur's view of the potential for war.
If the world is sliding toward global conflict over oil, the skids may be pretty well greased, politically speaking.
Governments do not have the political will to prepare for the end of oil, says Goodstein, the Caltech physicist.
"Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime this century, when the fuel runs out," Goodstein said, adding that "I certainly hope my prediction is wrong...." (Read in full)
December 14 2004 ~
Sify.com ~ "India has made provision for strategic reserve of oil in view of volatility in the international oil market, but their locations are not to be made public .."
December 12 2004 ~
Xinhuanet ~ "...On Friday, OPEC members agreed to trim daily output by 1 million barrels to meet their quota of 27 million barrels a day and prevent an oversupply from forming. The cut would be effectivein January 1. OPEC would meet again January 30 to consider production for the second quarter.."
December 10 2004 ~
Scotsman ~ "....For weeks now, Iraq has been in the grip of a worsening energy crisis, an irony not lost on its citizens. Oil infrastructure sabotage and attacks on fuel convoys, plus a surge in demand caused by cold weather and more cars on the roads, have been to blame. Motorists queue in lines as long as two and a half miles around Baghdad petrol stations, blocking intersections, looping through squares and in some cases spanning the length of bridges over the Tigris. .."
December 9 2004 ~
Mother Jones.com ~ "See Spot run. See gas prices rise. See Dick dig for oil in Alaska. See well-heads and pipelines in Iraq burn. See Hummers hum down our highways. Hum, hum, hum. See George take on the Axis of Evil. See military bases being built across the oil-lands of the Earth. See the neocons covet Iran.....See the public look away. ....the Wall Street Journal reported in September that evidence of a global slowdown in petroleum output can no longer be ignored. While no one can say with certainty that recent developments portend the imminent arrival of peak oil output, there can be no question that global supply shortages will prove increasingly common in the future. " An important article that can be read in full here
Bloomberg.com ~ "Crude oil rose for a second day on forecasts that colder-than-normal weather will boost demand in the eastern US, where most of the nation's heating oil is used..."
Bloomberg ~ "Crude oil rose for a second day on speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will call for a production cut at a meeting tomorrow."
December 7 2004 ~
Channel News Asia ~ OPEC "... beginning to price in the possibility of a move to rein in production following signs of concern among oil producers about the extent of recent price falls. Indonesia's Energy Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro, who is also OPEC president, said Tuesday he wanted the oil cartel at its meeting this week to raise its oil price band to reflect the dollar's slide and the recent supply crisis. .."
December 6 2004 ~
Michnews.com ~ "....the familiar alternatives, which do offer some benefits, all have significant limitations. And they all require lead-time to fully develop while the "peak oil" clock is rapidly running out of time. We should have begun seriously developing some of these alternatives decades ago. On his web site, www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.com he begins his "Dear Reader" message directly with a dose of hard reality..."
December 5 2004 ~
Kansas City Star ~ "...Jobs and oil have been Wall Street's biggest concerns in the second half of the year. With gasoline and other energy prices unusually high, consumers have been less willing to spend, as seen by the sluggish start to the holiday shopping season. And without more spending, companies have been less willing to create new jobs, which would mean more consumers with disposable income..."
December 2 2004 ~
From the Wilderness ~ "Interference in Ukraine is one more example of the administration's desperate need to keep its oil-driven "war on terrorism" train from derailing..."
December 1 2004 ~
Telegraph ~"....the crown jewels of Yukos could end up effectively in state hands.
The tax case against Yukos and the imprisonment and trial of its former chief executive, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, are seen as an attempt to wrest control of the company from its owners and take away the growing clout the Kremlin feared Mr Khodorkovsky would use against it....
Gazpromneft oil production could reach 90m tonnes next year if it bought Yugansk and could be pumping as much as 125m tonnes by 2010, Mr Bogdanchikov said. Other potential bidders are said to include German power supplier E.On, China's largest oil producer the China National Petroleum Corporation and Anglo-Dutch company Royal Dutch/Shell."
Associated Press ~ " Environmentalists see some of their worst fears playing out as President Bush moves to cement a second-term agenda that includes getting more timber, oil and gas from public lands and relying on the market rather than regulation to curb pollution. Bush's top energy priority opening an Alaska wildlife refuge to oil drilling is shaping up as an early test of GOP gains in Congress. "This is going to be a definitional battle, and we're ready," said Deb Callahan, president of the League of Conservation Voters. .."
November 29 2004 ~
Yemen Times ~ "..According to the best estimates of a number of respected international geologists, including the French Petroleum Institute, Colorado School of Mines, Uppsala University and Petroconsultants in Geneva, the world will likely feel the impact of the peaking of most of the present large oil fields and the dramatic fall in supply by the end of this decade, 2010, or possibly even several years sooner. At that point, the world economy will face shocks....So far it seems that the only possible substitutes for our fossil-fuel dependency are solar power and nuclear energy. The efficient exploitation of nuclear energy depends on man's ability to harness it. Developing a way of running this highly sophisticated civilization on those resources is an enormous challenge. Whether we will be able to cope with it remains to be seen."
November 28 2004 ~
RapidcityJournal.com ~ "Ken Luff may be an anomaly in the oil business. He runs an oil company working hard to increase production from its wells. But Luff says conservation, not production, is the key to America's looming energy crisis. .....As hard as we're working at it, we're consuming it faster than we can find it domestically," Luff said. "Increasing domestic production isn't going to do anything but mitigate the shipwreck. It will be absorbed."
November 26 2004 ~
FT.com ~ "......Top management has left Russia fearing arrest under a Kremlin drive to "decapitate" the company, a Yukos source said on Thursday. Yukos faces ruin under a $25bn back tax demand, which many see as the price former CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky must pay for daring to pose a political challenge to President Vladimir Putin. Khodorkovsky is on trial for fraud and tax evasion."
November 25 2004 ~
Global Public Media.com ~ "Peak Oil is no secret. Its chief opponent is something called denial - which is not a river in Egypt. Dick Cheney knew..." The transcript of Michael C Ruppert's address to the Commonwealth Club San Francisco last August is now on the internet . There are also audio files of the lecture. Ruppert's view is that 9/11 and the resulting "War on Terror" are parts of a massive authoritarian response to "an emerging economic crisis of unprecedented scale. Peak Oil - the beginning of the end for our industrial civilization - is driving the elites of American power to implement unthinkably draconian measures of repression, warfare and population control...."
Forbes ~ "......The Yuganskneftegaz subsidiary, which produces 1 million barrels per day - 60 percent of Yukos' oil - is due to be auctioned off Dec. 19 with what analysts have called an unrealistically low $8.6 billion starting price. Observers expect that the subsidiary could be sold into Kremlin-friendly hands...."
November 24 2004 ~
Asia Times ~
"...The total US public national debt now exceeds $7 trillion. ....The total US consumer debt is more than $8 trillion... ."The US currently has $38 trillion in debts, and there is a $54 trillion federal funding gap - the difference between what the government is committed to pay out and what it will receive in tax revenues"...
...... with interest rates rising, the bubbles are about to burst.
....as Russia moves to decrease the percentage of its own holdings of dollars, so are the big Asian economies, as well as many other economies around the globe. No one wants to get burned in the event Russia moves to the euro. Additionally, as the dollar continues to weaken and crude oil continues to rise in price, having the dollar as the preferred international currency for petro-transactions will become more of a liability...." Read in full
November 22 2004 ~
petroleumworld.com ~ ".....The bottom line' to this is fast emerging supply shortfall to a backdrop of fast increasing dependence on Russia and Saudi Arabia - or in fact the only choice - transition to lower energy, conservation and renewables oriented, economy and society restructuring strategies. Planning for energy transition will be vital and urgent by 2008. Given the laissez faire' or New Economy doctrine in current political and business leaderships, it is unsure that serious planning will occur, giving way to crisis by default.....However, at present, energy transition is discarded as utopian and unworkable by current political decision-makers. "
November 20 2004 ~
Reuters ~"U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday as investors were jolted by a more than $2 increase in oil prices, while Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan gave a stark reminder that interest rates were bound to go higher and warned the appetite for the dollar would dwindle..."
Voice of America ~ "Matt Simmons... "I am increasingly convinced that we must be at a level now where it is going to become really difficult to get any significant increases in supply and, conversely, demand has become a runaway train," ... Mr. Simmons expressed concern that very little is being done to prepare for a possible peak in production and that there is, as yet, no alternative form of energy available that can even come close to replacing oil. "We do not have a plan B," he said. "We literally do not have any kind of workable solution for what we would do in a world that is basically geared up to use more and more non-renewable energy..... What do we do? And the answer is that we do not have any idea."
November 17 2004 ~
Environmental Media Studies.org ~ "World oil supplies are all but certain to remain tight through the rest of this decade, unless there is a precipitous drop in demand, according to the results of a study by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC). The study found that all of the major new oil-recovery projects scheduled to come on stream over the next six years are unlikely to boost supplies enough to meet the world's growing needs. .." (in full)
November 16 2004 ~
Kansas Star ~ "....Matt Simmons, chairman and chief executive of Simmons & Co. International, a Houston-based investment banking firm that specializes in energy companies, said, "Oil markets are headed toward a brick wall."....Shelton noted that even after adjusting for inflation, oil is about four times more expensive than it was in the early 1970s. But even with much greater economic incentive to find oil, Americans are producing less and less. ...Shelton, Simmons and many other geologists think that now the entire planet is approaching the peak of Hubbert's curve. "When it peaks, there is nothing you can do," Shelton said except, as Georgia Tech is attempting, to learn quickly how to conserve energy and develop new fuel sources."
November 15 2004 ~
Tiscali.co.uk ~ "....a crisis that would be triggered by disruption to supply or an increase in the frequency of attacks on Iraqi pipelines to sabotage the coalition attempt to syphon off Iraqi crude oil supplies. Further disruption to Iraq's oil supply would lead to a price rise but the real fear is a terrorist attack on the oil sector's "central banker" Saudi Arabia, or more dramatically if the Saudi royal family were to be ousted from power throwing the country and the region into chaos. The Saudi kingdom is rife with rumours about expected attacks and analysts are terrified that one well placed bomb could throw oil traders into a panic...."
November 14 2004 ~
Guardian ~ "...Saboteurs attacked an oil pipeline north of Baghdad, sending flames and smoke billowing against the night sky. The pipeline carries crude from Taji, 12 miles north of Baghdad, to the Dora refinery in Baghdad.."
November 13 2004 ~
Shriveport Times ~ " ...David Goodstein, a physics professor at the California Institute of Technology.... "runaway inflation and worldwide depression" will force billions of people to burn coal, he says. The so-called "greenhouse effect" -- the rise in temperature caused by gases trapping energy from the sun -- could make the planet unlivable, Goodstein says.
"End of story" is his somber conclusion. "In this instance, worst case really means worst case."
Not everyone who has studied the world oil supply believes production is about to peak..."
November 9 2004 ~
Daily Lobo.com ~".... the world is headed toward a global oil shortage that could cause warfare, economic depression and the crumbling of institutions.
"There will be a crisis," he said. "It will be painful. We have just invaded Iraq. If anybody thinks that war was not about oil, you should think again. I call that 'oil war two.' The first Gulf War was 'oil war one.'"...."
November 9 2004 ~
World Crisis.com ~ ".....the world is about to change radically. Most of us (90%+) on the continent of North America are set to become much poorer monetarily and more importantly in terms of energy than we have been at any time since the great depression and just how poor will ultimately depend on how fast we grasp and address the reality of our new situation. (let's hope our track record isn't a perfect indicator of our future choices.) The implosion of Russia's economy and the resulting population die-off', 11 million and counting and "a life expectancy dropping to that of Guatemala" , is I think a very frightening harbinger. ..."
November 6 2004 ~
USA Media monitors.net ~ "...... ongoing dismantlement of the New Deal and social justice agenda. All this comes at a time when we are entering the age of peak oil and the onset of global warming, a moment in history that would require a firm, fair and judicious hand to bring us through a difficult transition. Instead we will have the most extreme, ruthless and irresponsible leadership to drive us into uncharted territory. It's a real question how or if or in what state we will emerge four years from now. November 2nd has threatened the future of the U.S. and the world."
November 5 2004 ~
Bloomberg.com ~ "...It would be very dangerous not to keep filling the reserve,'' said Kjell Aleklett, president of Uppsala, Sweden-based Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, an energy researcher. " We've seen how easy it is for production to be cut from Nigeria, Iraq and Venezuela, and spare capacity is very tight.'' ....Yukos shareholders on Dec. 20 will consider declar